Ranking the starting pitchers your team can trade for

You’re a general manager, wandering the halls of National Harbor, Md. with one mission. But time is running out. The Winter Meetings are almost over. Your phone buzzes. It’s a text from the owner of your team.

Jason Hammel walks by. Well, he doesn’t walk, exactly. He’s on a rickshaw, and it’s being pulled by two GMs from rival teams, who are both arguing with each other. Hammel is eating grapes.

You are so hosed.

But, wait! There are trades! The best pitcher on the market, if not in the American League, was just traded, so scratch that guy off, but trades are the way to go. The only way to go. The free agent market is like something from a makeshift storefront in Fallout 4. Once Hammel signs, that means the best starting pitcher is probably Ivan Nova, unless it’s the other way around. Money will get you nowhere.

There are still options, though. Trades. This is the offseason of pitcher trades, and the market is actually healthy, with a wide variety of shapes and sizes. Want an ace? Get yourself an ace. What a young, cost-controlled enigma? Get yourself one o’ them. Want to absorb Zack Greinke’s entire $172 million contract? You can, hotshot.

This is your 2016-17 guide to trading for starting pitchers.

It wasn’t that long ago that Justin Verlander’s contract was an open sore. Here’s me asking people what kind of fake contract they would prefer him on, just last year. Now he’s underpaid. What a sport.

Verlander has three years and $84 million left on his contract, which somehow became a bargain while we were asleep one night. He’s eased into his new, command-over-power limitations, and he still provides plenty of steady, steady innings. And plenty of power still, of course.

The problem is, is that he has a full no-trade clause, and he gets to pick where he wants to go. Good for him, but you’d better hope you’re employed by the Dodgers, intrepid GM.

Kate Upton and Justin Verlander Buy Beverly Hills Home With Star Pedigree

It’s a long commute from Atlanta to Beverly Hills if my Google Maps app is accurate. Los Angeles is much closer.

He’s so going to the Dodgers.

Jose Quintana has been just as good as Chris Sale over the last two years, and he’s under a smaller contract for a year longer. He’s even a traditionally built pitcher, not someone who throws like an inflatable car dealership attention-getter trying to dodge neutrinos. For some reason, though, he’s not going to be traded for the best prospect in baseball, like Sale was. Probably not even one of the 10-best prospects. Go figure.

That doesn’t mean he’s going to be a tremendous value, though. Teams will still have to empty their farm, considering he’s the perfect mix of affordable and effective. The Nationals’ second-place offer for Chris Sale would have been tempting for both teams, but Quintana should interest every last team in baseball, even the rebuilding teams. That’s how good the contract is. That’s how good the pitcher is.

These are the pitchers who aren’t exactly considered Game 1 starters in a perfect rotation, but could be in 10 months. And they’re perfect for the team that’s looking for pitching in 2018 as much as this season.

Jake Odorizzi was one of the many Rays starters who was bitten hard by the league-wide spike in home runs, and he’s never thrown 200 innings in a season before, but the 26-year-old has been reliably above average in each of the last two seasons, and this is his first year of arbitration eligibility. I could see him having a breakout year and being even more valuable in July or next December, but the Rays are trade-curious with everyone on their roster.

Julio Teheran is also affordable through 2020, and he’s a two-time All-Star. Also, the Braves aren’t trading him, but he makes this list because I don’t think the Braves were trading Shelby Miller last year, either. Make them an offer. Make them a big offer.

Chris Archer is caught between the first two categories, really, perhaps closer to Verlander and Quintana in terms of true talent, but we still don’t know if he can adjust to the new rabbit ball. He led the league with 19 losses (which you shouldn’t care about) and had a league-average ERA (which you should).

Can he allow fewer home runs? If so, trade the farm for him, because he’s owed just $39 million for the next five years, and that’s with team options that limit the risk. That affordability is exactly why the Rays probably don’t want to trade him yet, especially coming off a mediocre season. Like Teheran, it’s up to you if you want to change their mind.

This is the SkyMall section. You do not want to pay $600 for a talking barbecue in SkyMall. But pretend you have one hour to buy a birthday present for your father-in-law, and your car is broken down, and you live in the woods, and he’s going to be there in an hour, and he always hated you for stealing his son or daughter away, and you know he’ll use your forgetting a gift as a way to judge you, and THINK DAMMIT THINK.

You notice on the small print that this SkyMall catalog guarantees delivery in a half-hour. So you pay $600 for a talking barbecue. And it’s kind of dippy and unfortunate. But it’s better than nothing.

Ervin Santana was ... really good last year? Thirty starts and a 3.38 ERA (124 ERA+) worth of good, in fact. The defense-independent stats are skeptical that he improved, but he’s clearly a starter worthy of a rotation spot, and not just any rotation. He could be a pitcher that a good team would want to start in a Game 3 on purpose, which you can’t say for any of the remaining free agents.

Santana is owed $28 million for the next two years (including a $1 million buyout on a team option), which isn’t too far from what teams are paying one-year fill-ins like Bartolo Colon or Andrew Cashner. The Twins probably shouldn’t expect a Grade A prospect for Santana, but they should get something back. That’s a far better position than I thought they would be in when the original free agent deal was announced.

Ian Kennedy lived through the great home run slaughter of 2016, even though he allowed 33 of the suckers. His ERA was 3.68 (good), his ERA+ was 118 (great), and his FIP was 4.67 (Ian Kennedy). Woe be to the team that trades for him if they don’t have an outfield defense as good as the Royals’.

Kennedy is owed $51 million for the next four years, and he has an opt-out after the next season, so even if he’s as good or even better as he was in 2016, he might skip town anyway. This is a booby trap of an acquisition, but I said the same thing last year when he was a free agent, so what do I know?

Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy are both employed by the Dodgers at the moment, with Kazmir being the fourth starter for now and McCarthy the de facto sixth starter. It’s more likely that they’ll keep Kazmir, but it’s worth exploring them both, because you know the Dodgers will.

Kazmir is around for two more years and $35 million after opting back into the contract he signed last year. Considering the state of the starting pitching market right now (BAD), you probably have an idea of how his last season went (NOT GOOD) for him to opt back in. After a rough first month, though, Kazmir struck out a batter per inning and did roughly what the Dodgers should’ve expected from him in the first place.

McCarthy has had a rough road with injuries since signing with the Dodgers, and he’s a long way from his 14 starts with the Yankees that made him so comfortable. That written, he’s owed $23 million over the next two years, which is probably a year and a few million more than he might get on the open market, but we’ll see which teams are left at the end of the offseason with far worse options.

These are the pitchers whose star has fallen, because of injury or poor performance, but still might cost an awful lot because of their past successes and latent talent. Their current teams would still want excellent prospects in return; their potential new teams would want a discount because of the nicks and dings. Which means it’s going to be hard to get a deal done.

But not impossible.

Sonny Gray would have brought a Chris Sale-like package in a trade a year ago. He ... wouldn’t now. He’s three years away from free agency, and his strikeouts and walks didn’t decrease. He just fell into the common 2016 trap of giving up too many home runs. That doesn’t have to continue next year.

But the A’s would be daffy to trade him at his lowest possible value, not unless they were convinced he was irreparably broken. And another team would be daffy to assume that the old Gray was coming back, putting all of their prospects behind that belief. So he won’t get traded yet. Probably.

Drew Smyly is, oh, wow, that’s weird, another Rays pitcher with previous success who gave up a million home runs last year. It’s like they stole the Cardinals’ Book of Dark Red Arts but didn’t quite understand the nuances of the spells they cast.

The Rays Paradox is this: They were supposedly ahead of the curve by teaching their pitchers to live up in the zone against a generation of hitters who grew up facing pitchers who lived low in the zone. They zigged when the rest of the world zagged, but when the baseball was spiked with bouncy juice, their best laid plans were ruined.

So is Smyly only good with a calm baseball and a big park? Or would he have had his 2015 season with any team? Again, it’ll take prospect capital to find out right now, which makes a deadline (or 2017 Winter Meetings) deal more likely.

Anthony DeSclafani probably belongs in a different section because his star is rising, not falling, but he didn’t fit with Teheran or Archer, and I’m too lazy to create a new, separate category for him. If you follow the rule that every team is potentially three years away from winning a whole bunch of games, there’s no reason for the Reds to trade DeSclafani just yet. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2020 season. He’s just coming into his own.

I’m also not sure if he’s going to be anything but a quality starter, though. That’s not damning with faint praise — he could quality starter his way to $100 million — but it also means a rebuilding team could be tempted by a whiff of high-ceiling prospect. Maybe a guy in Low A with an arm that puts him in the top 50 of a prospect list, but results that keep him out of the top 25.

That’s up to the Reds. Won’t hurt to ask.

Alex Cobb didn’t give up way too many home runs last year for the Rays! Well, he gave up five in 22 innings, which is bad, but he didn’t pitch much because he was returning from Tommy John surgery. He was previously outstanding, with a 134 ERA+ and 3.29 FIP in 49 games from 2013-14. Unlike the enigmatic pitchers from the last section, the Rays should be motivated to trade him because he’s a free agent after the 2017 season.

Danny Duffy was one of the better surprises in the league last season, a Tommy John survivor who rediscovered the strikeout stuff he lost, and added command and control along with it. Because that sweet, sweet service time keeps ticking even when you’re on the DL, Duffy will be a free agent after his season, just like Cobb.

If you’re looking for pitchers who will almost certainly be traded, this is your section. I normally wouldn’t think a rental pitcher would bring back top prospects, but it’s either make a trade for a potential No. 2 that hurts, or enjoy, I don’t know, Derek Holland for a lot of money. A team with the prospects should take a chance on Cobb or Duffy. Or both! You work hard. Live it up.

These are the All-Stars of yore, the pitchers who made their money before they started scuffling. They might still have some All-Star in there. Or they might be filled to their skulls with scuffle.

Anibal Sanchez is now two years removed from his last good season, and he’s thrown over 300 innings of 5.42 ERA ball in the meantime. He’ll get at least $21.8 million before hitting free agency next offseason, but that’s including a team option. So if he’s suddenly excellent again, his new team would control his rights in 2018.

There are teams interested. But not at that price.

Clay Buchholz isn’t someone who gets mentioned enough around here. I know that because whenever I type his name, I get the urge to slip this GIF in:

Buchholz was pitching so poorly in the first part of 2016 that he was demoted to the bullpen, and it was a question if the Red Sox were even going to pick up his option, which used to be considered extraordinarily cheap. He bounced back, seized an opportunity, and he was going to have a shot to start in 2017.

Still might. But with the Red Sox getting Chris Sale, they’ll have seven starters for five spots. Depth isn’t a bad thing, so they won’t just give Buchholz away. But considering the salary and the competitive-balance tax, he might be the preferred pitcher to make room if the offer is right.

Zack Greinke regrets nothing, at least when it comes to dollars and cents, but could you imagine if he had his Cy Young-quality season in 2016 and was a free agent right now? That’s all we would be talking about. He wouldn’t just be better than any other free agent. He’d be better than any other free agent if they got to throw from 30 feet, 3 inches away.

So pretend that’s what’s happening, and you can just waltz in and sign him for six years and $172 million. Tempting, right?

Just six years, $172 million. That’s all it will take.

He’ll only be 37 at the end of it. That can’t possibly make you nervous, can it?

Junior Guerra gets his own category because it’s your job to figure him out. He was playing for the Wichita Wingnuts and a veteran of the Venezuelan Winter League, and he went six years between playing affiliated baseball, finally resurfacing with the White Sox when he was 30. They let him walk, he caught with the Brewers, and he put up a 2.81 ERA in 20 starts. He makes absolutely no sense.

What does make sense is that the Brewers are interested in trading him. There are times when the rebuilding team should exhibit patience and make sure they’ve timed the player’s availability correctly. And then there are times when the team stumbles into a golden dragon egg and knows they should sell it before the mother comes back for it. This is one of those times.

The surprise factor might make Guerra more reasonable, though. If no one trusts him, maybe his price drops. And if it doesn’t work out, you can always trade for Justin Verlander. Happy hot stoving, and you should probably text your team’s owner back. Your phone has been buzzing this entire time.