The Red Sox will trade a starter, but who (and when)?

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The Red Sox have seven starters on the major-league roster, which is a good problem to have. “Problem” is an accurate way to describe it, though, as there are only so many roster spots. So, it’s no surprise to see that teams are calling the Red Sox, trying to acquire one of the options that isn’t a lock for 2017. David Price, reigning AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello, and newly acquired Chris Sale are in. Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright, and Clay Buchholz will fight for the last two spots, and part of the decision could come down to what Boston gains by dealing them.

Buchholz rebounded after a mechanics tweak and a move to the pen, with an eventual return to the rotation, posting a 3.22 ERA over his final 58 frames. He’s only under contract for 2017 and at a cost of $13.5 million, which isn’t all that much in a world where Ian Kennedy got $70 million guaranteed, but it’s enough to scare the Marlins. Pomeranz cost the Red Sox top prospect Anderson Espinoza in July, and is under control for three more years, so if he’s the one to move — and it’s unlikely the Sox have any desire to move him — the return would be lofty. Rodriguez impressed as a rookie and, once the after effects of a spring training knee injury wore off, impressed in the latter half of 2016 as well: he posted a 3.24 ERA and averaged over a strikeout per inning through his final 14 starts after he returned to the majors. The Sox aren’t going to want to just give that guy away. Wright made the All-Star team in 2016, but a shoulder injury caused by pinch-running ended his campaign. He’s expected to be healthy for the spring, though.

Buchholz might bring back the least given he has just the one year left and is owed $13.5 million, but he would also open up payroll space for the Red Sox to upgrade in-season while pushing them further under the luxury tax threshold now. They won’t just give away depth to get that space, not when most of the league is in need of an arm, but his lack of team control combined with the luxury tax benefits point to him as the guy to go. The Sox won’t be in a rush to move him just to move him: this could be a deal that doesn’t even go down until spring training, when the Sox are convinced all their pitchers are healthy and someone else has realized that their starters are not. Get ready for a winter full of trade speculation!