ALCS Games 6 and 7 should have the Astros even more confident with their pitching than before

During the end of the season and the early postseason, the Astros rotation wasn’t a tire fire or anything. But there were things that needed to be changed should they hope to win a World Series, nonetheless make it to one in the first place.

But after the last few games of the ALCS, they should feel much better about how things are going and their chances against a Dodgers rotation that is equally intimidating — including Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, and Rich Hill.

The Astros knocked their pitching staff’s ERA down from 4.63 in the ALDS to 3.88 ALCS. They gave up only 22 earned runs across seven games, compared to 18 in only four games against the Red Sox earlier. Their K/9 rose from 8.49 to 10.41 from the first series to the second, and their WHIP went from 1.46 to 1.16.

All of those numbers are great confidence-builders for Astros fans as they try to win the World Series, but beyond the statistical signs that they are improving there is also anecdotal evidence that they can trust their starters with the tall task of minimizing the damage that the Dodgers’ lineup can do.

The first is that Justin Verlander isn’t just far more in control of his skills than he was earlier this season — the Astros have gotten the best of his starts this year — but that he could put forth two masterful starts four games apart without looking any worse for wear. The last thing they need is for their star pitcher to win the ALCS MVP at the expense of his velocity and control thanks to 16 combined innings of pitching.

In his Game 6 start especially, he looked more than able to push himself while still maintaining his control and striking batters out. He was clearly tired, but was still able to work batters well enough to get through a whole extra inning and lessen the load on the bullpen.

The second is that Charlie Morton switching up his strategy on the mound and how he approached batters actually worked, leading to his five shutout innings to start Game 7. Compare that to his exact opposite outing in Game 3, when he got lit up for seven runs in only 3 ²⁄₃ innings, and it’s night and day for the Astros.

If he can carry over that pitch placement and aggressiveness to the World Series? Great news. If not? Good luck beating the Dodgers if two games of the series are given away.

Lance McCullers won’t always be able to get a four-inning save using 20-plus curveballs in a row, but even that he did it once is a boost for Houston’s fallback plan. A combination of Morton and McCullers pitching all of Games 3 and 7 (if it comes to that) is probably not a realistic game plan for the Astros to rely on, but that it doesn’t even seem like that much of a ridiculous suggestion means a lot for their situation.

Of course, none of this increased confidence will matter one cent if they Astros lose their offense like they did in the middle of the series against the Yankees. If they want to beat a talented LA team without the home field advantage that they’ve had the first two rounds, their pitching can’t be the only half of their game plan clicking.

Verlander and the Morton/McCuller’s performances aside, there are still some lingering worries. No pitching staff is ever going to be perfect, but the World Series isn’t polite about allowing flaws to go the whole series under the radar.

The reason that Verlander even had to stretch his Game 6 outing was because the bullpen is still shaky as all hell — Will Harris can’t be relied on to keep baserunners off the paths in a clutch situation, you never know what you’re going to get with Ken Giles despite some of his better innings in the postseason, and Francisco Liriano barely counts.

Their bullpen has had its moments, it’s not all a disaster after all they did just win the ALCS, but the Dodgers have proven they can rally at the drop of a hat and Houston’s relief staff is like Tupperware that you think has a tight seal but might slosh some soup on the counter from time to time depending on how the plastic cover is feeling that day.

But based on recent performances, one side of that game plan is much more shored up than it seemed to be even a few days ago — and at that point it was looking pretty good already. The Dodgers still have the advantage on the mound when you look at all of their pieces, but the Astros aren’t any slouches either.

If people weren’t positive about that before, they should be now.