The BBWAA releases their 2018 Hall of Fame ballot, and the narratives seem obvious already

This year’s Modern Era Committee Hall of Fame ballot was already released a few weeks ago, generating more than a little controversy based on the lack of Lou Whitaker anywhere on the list.

Now, the BBWAA’s ballot has been made public for 2018, which is the Hall of Fame ballot that most baseball fans are more familiar with in comparison to the niche Committee ballots that fill in the gaps and attempt to fix any snubs every few years.

There are 19 new names on the ballots and 14 holdovers from previous years, including Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez. The entire ballot is listed below, including how many years holdovers have been on the ballot and their percentage of votes received last year.

Holdovers (Years on ballot, 2017 vote percentage)

Barry Bonds (6th, 53.8)
Roger Clemens (6th, 54.1)
Vladimir Guerrero (2nd, 71.1)
Trevor Hoffman (3rd, 74.0)
Jeff Kent (5th, 16.7)
Edgar Martinez (9th, 58.6)
Fred McGriff (9th, 21.7)
Mike Mussina (5th, 51.8)
Manny Ramirez (2nd, 23.8)
Curt Schilling (6th, 45.0)
Gary Sheffield (4th, 13.3)
Sammy Sosa (6th, 8.6)
Billy Wagner (3rd, 10.2)
Larry Walker (8th, 21.9)

Newcomers

Chris Carpenter
Johnny Damon
Livan Hernandez
Oliver Hudson
Aubrey Huff
Jason Isringhausen
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Carlos Lee
Brad Lidge
Hideki Matsui
Kevin Millwood
Jamie Moyer
Scott Rolen
Johan Santana
Jim Thome
Omar Vizquel
Kerry Wood
Carlos Zambrano

Since players can only stay on the ballot for 10 years or until they receive less than 5 percent of the vote, and need 75 percent of the vote to be elected, there are a few notable holdovers to watch.

Edgar Martinez is one year away from dropping off and will need a major push to make it in based on where his percentage currently stands — and could be a Tim Raines-style entry next year where an emotional push gets him in. McGriff is in the same position except for without the outside chance of a 10th-year push getting him in based on his current percentage.

Bonds and Clemens look to be headed for a similar fate, where their PED history keeps them out of the Hall but their percentages mean they will hang around for a full decade as the debate over where players with their histories belong rages on around their candidacies.

Kent, Sosa, Wagner, and Sheffield are the best bets to drop off after this year’s vote, while Manny will probably stretch things out for another cycle or two before he suffers the same fate. Hoffman and Guerrero have the best chance to be inducted this year, as the former was only one percentage point away from making it in 2017.

As for the new names on the list, Johan Santana had an impressive peak but his career ended before he achieved the longevity that would grant him “lock” status with voters. The less said about present day Aubrey Huff, the better (and he and Curt Schilling appearing on the same ballot is a real trip), and Johnny Damon doesn’t have a strong case but his beard might if there were a category for that.

Locks from the first-year candidates look to be Thome and Chipper Jones, and as long as nothing unexpected happens, Guerrero and Hoffman should have similar confidence in their election this year.

Finally, if anybody’s wondering about Roy Halladay’s eligibility, Hall rules dictate that any player out of the league for less than five years that dies will be eligible six months after their death or once the five-year period is over. So he’ll be on the 2019 ballot, rather than this year’s list.