Scott Boras reportedly seeking a contract in ‘the $200 million range’ for J.D. Martinez

Welcome to the first sticker shock of the MLB offseason. Free agent outfielder J.D Martinez is arguably the top position player on the market, and might be the top free agent overall, and his agent Scott Boras is already floating a rather large number to Martinez’s suitors.

This is not an accident. Boras during the season said fellow free agent pitcher Jake Arrieta had a better track record than Max Scherzer, David Price, and Zack Greinke, all of whom signed contracts north of $200 million, not so coincidentally.

Another free agent, former Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, is also a Boras client, and per Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star, “A National League executive expected Boras to push for an eight-year contract worth $200 million.”

Boras is the best at what he does for a reason, and this is how he operates. It usually works, and Martinez will definitely get paid. Just probably not $200 million.

That said, Martinez is an attractive target this winter. He slugged .690 on the season, best in the majors, better than even Giancarlo Stanton, who hit 59 home runs. Martinez hit 45, including a ridiculous 29 home runs in 62 games after he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Boras suggested the Diamondbacks should be the team to pony up to retain Martinez.

“You don’t sign Greinke and not sign this guy,” Boras told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. “I mean, once you drop in the pool, you’re in the water. Once you’re in the water, it’s kind of hard to say you’re not wet.”

Martinez has slugged .545 or better for four straight seasons, and among hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances since the start of 2014, Martinez’s .574 slugging percentage ranks second in the majors, behind only Mike Trout (.579).

Martinez is also entering his age-30 season, and has played more than 123 games just one time in his career.

There have been eight contracts signed by position players with a total guarantee of at least $200 million, per Cot’s Contracts:

There are several red flags on that list. Pujols had negative Wins Above Replacement in 2017 and still has four years left on the deal. Fielder was out of baseball by the fifth year of his deal. Cabrera has been great, but had an injury-plagued down year in 2017 (.249/.329/.399) and is heading into his age-35 season with seven years left on the deal.

Stanton still has 10 years and $295 million remaining on his contract, and is coming off a possible MVP season, and heading into his age-28 season, two years younger than Martinez. The others — A-Rod, Cano, and Votto — are all on Hall of Fame paths, something that can’t be said for Martinez.

So no, Martinez probably won’t get $200 million. But just by setting the bar that high, when Martinez signs for $150 million or whatever Boras can kick back in his leather chair and say that his client left money on the table, as he did after he got Chris Davis $161 million over seven years from the Baltimore Orioles two years ago:

“You certainly could have negotiated more dollars for Chris Davis, no doubt about it,‘’ he said. “The idea, for me, was his ability to execute in this ballpark, for his talent, the skill set, for what he does. You just look at the metrics of what his performance is and it’s very, very difficult to leave a setting that you know can provide such comfort, such reward.”

Come to think of it, that Davis deal sounds like a decent target for the Martinez contract, more so than $200 million, anyway.