Jake Arrieta isn’t a Cy Young contender these days, but he’s still plenty good

This is a quote from Jake Arrieta, back in 2016:

“I will get six or seven years. No doubt about that. I’d like to stay in Chicago, but if they don’t want me, somebody will.’’

It’s a strong quote. A confident quote. It shows just where the market for Arrieta was back then and the type of pitcher he was perceived to be. Of course he was expecting to get six or seven years. That’s what aces get.

Since that quote, Arrieta placed in the Cy Young voting again, and he followed that up with a solid-not-great season. That’s all it took for those six or seven years to seem as realistic as a moon base. Arrieta didn’t implode on the national stage like Yu Darvish. He didn’t suffer a serious injury like Michael Pineda. He was just 17 percent less Jake Arrieta than usual. Apparently that’s enough to sow doubt in the minds of everyone who might consider offering him millions and millions of dollars.

This is a quote from Scott Boras in 2017:

“Arrieta is a grumble bear, the big hoss. He wants his honey, and he’s not afraid to sail over an ocean of bees to get it,” said Boras.

It’s not a real quote, but give it time. It will be. Boras wants to convince the world there’s nothing different now, that the 2016 prediction from Arrieta is still true. This is the same Jake Arrieta. You’ll see. You’ll all see.

Well, yes and no. There is definitely some weirdness going on with Arrieta, at least compared to what we got used to over his stretch of dominance. He’s still effective. He finished the season with a 14-start stretch in which he allowed three runs or fewer. From July 1 through the end of the season, his ERA was 2.26. That stretch probably made him scores and scores of millions that he didn’t look likely to snag when his ERA was pushing 5.00 halfway through the year.

Here’s the distribution of his starts in 2017:

Five earned runs allowed: three starts
Four earned runs allowed: four starts
Three earned runs allowed: six starts
Two earned runs allowed: five starts
One earned run allowed: seven starts
Zero earned runs allowed: five starts

More than half the time, the Cubs were thrilled with the chance Arrieta gave them to win. This is a pitcher you want around for a long time. Maybe there’s a chance for a bargain, even?

But those are deceptive stats. He allowed three earned runs in his final start of the season ... in three innings. Two starts before that, he allowed three earned runs ... in 2⅓ innings. There was an injury mixed in the middle, but even before then, the Cubs were being incredibly cautious with Arrieta. He didn’t go over 100 pitches in his final 11 starts. He didn’t start the eighth inning all season. While some of that probably has to do with third-time-through-the-order dogma, it’ll sure make a GM wonder if this is a pitcher worth $120 million and a draft pick.

What we need, then, is a team with enough payroll room to take the Boras Challenge and pay Arrieta like he had two 2016s, without looking too hard at his 2017. Is there a team out there that fits?

A team that’s contending and needs a pitcher for their postseason run, but isn’t that worried about his six-or-seven-inning limits? I can think of several of them, but I keep going back to Arrieta’s home state. He went to high school in Plano, and he went to college in Fort Worth and Weatherford. He is a classic Texas fireballer, and I think Boras should give extended flowery quotes about what that means.

The only question is if he fits better in Houston or Arlington.

The Astros got their big-ticket item for the rotation in Justin Verlander, which turned out to be a swell decision, but he’s still owed $28 million ($8 million paid by the Tigers) for the next two seasons. While they don’t owe a lot of guaranteed money, they’ll still have to make decisions on Jose Altuve and Dallas Keuchel, as well as pay arbitration awards to George Springer and Carlos Correa. If they could get a guarantee that Arrieta was effective for the next three or four years, they could probably justify a big contract on top of the pile.

They cannot get a guarantee. Move on.

The Rangers just traded for Matt Moore and signed Doug Fister, and they still have a fair amount of money guaranteed for 2020. They would love to sign Arrieta for a deal and move Mike Minor back to the bullpen.

There will be no deals.

It would make sense for Arrieta to go home, but the more you scrutinize the specific teams and their situations, the less sense it makes.

Oh, goodie, we can just reuse a lot of the words that were spilled for Darvish:

I’m thinking the ideal team is a team with ...

1. An acute need for one more reliable-ish starting pitcher

2. Hopes of contending in 2018

3. A lot of money to spend

4. Not too many future payroll burdens to worry about.

And ...

That makes it something of a battle between the Twins and the Brewers to see which small-market team is most confident they can brush off a bad deal. The Brewers owe just $18.5 million in guaranteed money in 2020. The Twins owe just $500,000, which is the buyout of Byung-ho Park’s contract. They usually aren’t the team that can stack bad contract after bad contract, but any team can work around one.

Since then, Park made the decision to go back to Korea, which means the Twins don’t even owe that much. There are two pitchers at the top of the market, and the Twins and Brewers seem likely to each take one home. It seems like such an obvious fit that it’s almost boring.

The Twins sure seem like they’re hankerin’ for Darvish. That would leave Arrieta for the Brewers, and you know they would enjoy poking the Cubs in the eye. He’s started 15 games against the Brewers in his career, with a 2.74 ERA and a .178 batting average allowed. They are impressed, I’ll guess. They have the payroll room, an acute need, and a team that’s ahead of schedule.

My usual rule of thumb is that when a team makes too much sense, pick a different team. It’s not like I’m going to be right with any of these. So I might as well amuse myself.

Not this time, though. The Brewers can play the Boras game. If the deal is a dud immediately, they’ll still have money to spend on a replacement. They don’t have a lot of contract decisions coming up for their young players, and those low salaries can subsidize a failure or two. Just think if Arrieta is the same guy he was just two years ago ....

Brewers, five years, $130 million. He won’t get that six- or seven-year deal, but he’ll still get a long one. My other prediction is that whatever team gets him will have serious regrets at one point, but that’s true of just about every free agent. If the Brewers have regrets, at least they’ll be able to build a strong team around them.