The Rangers are out of last place, but they have a long way to go

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It took them 13 innings to do it, but the Texas Rangers beat the Seattle Mariners last night — a win that succeeded in finally pulling them out of last place in the AL West. Of course, “not in last place” is a pretty dubious honor for a team that shares its division with the Oakland A’s. And it’s hardly the sort of thing that should be a meaningful distinction for a team looking to capture its third straight playoff spot.

Bad luck is an easy gut answer for the early, relatively unproven struggles here. After all, the Rangers are largely unchanged from who they were last year when they put up the best record in the AL. But based on adjustments for run differential and strength of schedule done by Baseball Prospectus, the team has actually had the good luck to overperform so far. Instead of the 13-17 record the Rangers have, they’re worthy of being 11-18 based on their play. Most of that mysterious good luck has come from their starting rotation, which collectively has the fifth-best ERA in baseball — and peripheral figures that suggest they should be pitching much, much worse than that.

While they’ve had some misfortune with injuries — Adrian Beltre has yet to play this year due to a calf issue, and Cole Hamels is a new addition to the disabled list this week with a strained oblique — they haven’t had mass carnage to deal with on the level of, say, the New York Mets. So far then, the Rangers aren’t a good team that’s had especially bad luck. They’re a good team that’s simply been bad. Pulling out of last place is a first step here, but they have a long way to go.