MLB trade rumor grade: Yu Darvish to the Yankees?

Another Yu Darvish rumor? Man, this is going to be disappointing for everyone involved when the Rangers don’t trade him. Oh, sorry, I’m giving away the ending to the story at the beginning. Welcome to our series of trade rumor grades, where we look at noteworthy trade rumors and then try to figure out if they actually have any standing in reality.

This time, we’re looking at Yu Darvish (again), only this time, we’re discussing the Yankees’ interest in him.

I’m going to use the same section for the Rangers that I did this weekend when Darvish to the Dodgers became a thing, so if you’ve already read that and don’t want a reminder, scroll on down to the Yankees’ section below. Let’s dive in.

Darvish is going to be a rental, as he’s a free agent heading into this winter. However, he’s also the only starter on the trade market who is going to strike out 12 batters over eight innings against a potential playoff contender on the reg. So even though whoever gets him will be doing so for just a few months, those are going to be months of starts that matter and maybe make more of a difference than any other player at the deadline can.

TL;DR: The Rangers are going to get prospects for Darvish. Not as many as the A’s might get for Sonny Gray, considering Gray has team control on his side while Darvish does not, but there might not be any other starter besides Gray dealt this month who can bring back what Darvish will.

The Rangers can always attempt to re-sign Darvish this winter even if he’s traded, just like they can attempt to re-sign him if they instead hold on to him and finish five or six or seven or however many games out of a postseason spot. So why not try to pick up a couple of prospects who can help improve the club in the future in the process?

The big question is whether the Rangers will even deal Darvish: It was reiterated by a number of reporters on Friday and was even the subject of our Say Hey, Baseball column as well. But the Rangers aren’t dealing Darvish unless they believe that, on or around July 31, attempting to make the postseason will be more trouble than it’s worth. They’re gauging his value now to determine the answer to that question, and how they play between now and July 31 is also a factor.

The Yankees do not have an ace right now. CC Sabathia is doing a fine impression of one, and that might be enough, but his underlying numbers suggest a season worse than the ERA he’s put up, and he also is averaging fewer than 5-2/3 innings per start. Aces aren’t leaving so much work behind for the bullpen. Luis Severino has a better claim to being New York’s top starter, but he’s 23 years old and the 120 innings he’s thrown this year are already a big-league career-high — does he have 200-plus frames in his arm? No one knows, because he’s never shown us either way.

On top of those questions, Michael Pineda is out for the year, and the Yankees have already used nine different starters in 2017. Their depth hasn’t impressed, there are questions at the top of the rotation, and while Masahiro Tanaka is once again pitchable, he’s not exactly the Tanaka of old, either. Adding Darvish would fix a lot of problems, and games where he can be paired up with New York’s recently upgraded bullpen are about as close to an automatic win as baseball allows.

The one major issue here is that Darvish goes against the strategy the Yankees have employed of late, both in the offseason and so far during trade deadline season. They’re adding to 2017 without sacrificing much in the future — even the deal with the White Sox that brought them a rental like Todd Frazier also came with a long-term piece like Tommy Kahnle, which made giving up a number of prospects palatable. Darvish is dominant, and easily the top pitcher on the block, but he’s a rental and he won’t come cheap.

If the Yankees think Darvish is the missing piece for a team that’s definitely already going to make the postseason, the one that they can throw out in the Wild Card round if necessary who can also be leaned on heavily in subsequent series, that’s one thing. If Brian Cashman and Co. have any concerns about making it to October in the first place, though, Darvish might be too rich for their particular tastes — especially when they could give 2017 a go with this roster, then sign Darvish over the winter without giving up any of their prospects.

Rumor Grade

Like with the Cubs and Dodgers, Darvish to the Yankees sounds more enticing than it is. There’s a low probability of this happening, given Cashman isn’t the future-mortgaging type and it’s still very unclear if the Rangers are going to move Darvish at all. Let’s give this one a C-.