If Yu Darvish is available, the Dodgers should trade for him

The Dodgers have won the National League West in each of the last four seasons, and, as they sit 11.5 games up in the division as of this writing, they’ll likely make that five in a row. Los Angeles has been eliminated from the postseason in each of the last four years, despite the advantage that comes with winning the division and also being the team with Clayton Kershaw. The furthest they’ve advanced is Game 6 of the NLCS.

Having Kershaw wasn’t enough. Having Kershaw and Zack Greinke didn’t cut it. Things didn’t work out in 2016, when the Dodgers leaned heavily on Kershaw and closer Kenley Jansen in a post-Greinke world, hoping they’d sneak enough wins out in the other games to keep them moving through to the World Series. As great as the Dodgers have been in 2017, it feels like they’re setting themselves up for a repeat of that situation, especially now that Kershaw’s back has him on the disabled list once again.

It’s not that the Dodgers are guaranteed to be eliminated from the postseason or anything like that. They also aren’t guaranteed to advance, as the last four seasons so cruelly reminded the organization and its fans. However, if they have an opportunity to improve, they should take it, even if it means giving up prospects in a way they’ve recoiled from at past trade deadlines.

This isn’t to say the Dodgers were wrong to hold on to Joc Pederson and Julio Urias and Corey Seager or Cody Bellinger just because they were eliminated short of a World Series berth or victory in each of the last four seasons. There are two things about 2017 that make this year much different than previous ones, though, and in turn, means that if someone like Yu Darvish is available at the deadline, the Dodgers should pay the price to acquire him.

For one, Kershaw’s health is a serious concern. He missed two months of 2016 with a herniated disc in his back that limited him to 149 innings. Kershaw looked worn out by the time he pitched in Game 6 of the NLCS last fall, likely thanks to both his back and the fact this was already his fifth start of the postseason due to the Dodgers’ obsession with pitching their starters on three days’ rest in October. And they almost didn’t even make it far enough for this to happen to Kershaw, too, as his reputation nearly cost the Dodgers the NLDS before then.

No one knows if this back injury is something that is going to limit Kershaw from here on out, so saying that is definitely what is happening is irresponsible. At a time when the Dodgers are the best they’ve been with Kershaw, though, even the slight chance that he won’t be the unstoppable horse he’s been for nearly a decade now is an alarming one.

Kershaw is supposed to be the healthy constant surrounded by an ever-rotating cast of starters who might not have the physical ability to approach 200 innings without breaking into pieces. If Kershaw can’t get there, and he’s limited in the postseason in some way because of this, that’s a huge issue for Los Angeles and their chances.

The second item is that nearly all of the major prospects the Dodgers refused to trade over the last few years during deadline season are now on the big-league roster and contributing. Six of the Dodgers’ eight position player regulars are 28 years old or younger. Yasmani Grandal and Yasiel Puig are the old men are 28 and 26, respectively, while Pederson, Corey Seager, and Cody Bellinger are all under 25, with Bellinger bringing up the rear in his age-21 campaign.

The Dodgers lineup is loaded with youth, and that youth is what’s driving this team to the best record in baseball despite injuries (Adrian Gonzalez, Urias, almost everyone else in the rotation at some point). Those players will be around for years to come, and with any luck, will continue to mash for Los Angeles. As noted above, though, with Kershaw’s situation potentially changing, that doesn’t mean the Dodgers are going to have it easy just because they’ve already done much of the hard work.

If Darvish — who is a legitimate ace — is available, the Dodgers should make a deal with the Rangers. They shouldn’t mortgage their entire future for a rental or anything, but they don’t need to hoard the youth waiting for next year. 2017 is next year for this Dodgers team, one where Alex Wood is suddenly great and every major hitting prospect they held onto has blossomed into a productive player or star.

Having Darvish and Kershaw in the postseason is no guarantee, just like Kershaw and Greinke joining forces wasn’t. However, Greinke and Kershaw didn’t have Seager and Bellinger backing them up. They didn’t have Wood as the third starter, Rich Hill as the fourth starter, or a bullpen with as many reliable pieces in it. The Dodgers shouldn’t have to give every possible relief inning to Jansen in the postseason this year.

They’ll will be fine in the regular season, even if they don’t trade for Darvish. They might also be fine in the postseason even without adding an arm of his caliber to a rotation that could use another horse in it. There is an opportunity here to improve the Dodgers’ chances in October, though, a chance to put less of the burden on Kershaw, and a chance to take advantage of this swell of productive youth in the lineup. They could have more chances in the future, too, but this is baseball: No one knows if they’ll ever have another as good as this one.

The Dodgers, who famously waited and waited until they finally won a World Series in 1955 against the rival Yankees, who haven’t been to or won the World Series since 1988 despite repeated playoff appearances since, know this as well as anyone. Whether they take advantage of the situation they put themselves in with their past patience is another matter entirely.