MLB trade rumor: Dodgers picking between Justin Verlander, Sonny Gray, and Yu Darvish

The Dodgers are currently 92-8. I’m not looking that up, but it sounds right, so let’s all save some time and just go with it. And because they have a .920 winning percentage, they would be excused for sitting the trade deadline out. They’re already set at several positions. They can weather the Clayton Kershaw injury and still win the NL West by 20 games without doing a thing.

And then the postseason starts.

In recent years, the Dodgers have had a plan: Pitch Clayton Kershaw or Rich Hill or whomever is hot and available on short rest. Some years it’s just Kershaw on short rest. Some years it’s Kershaw and Hill or Greinke. Every permutation has Kershaw, though. And it’s never worked out as well as they’ve hoped.

This year, the Dodgers have Kershaw. They have Rich Hill. They have Alex Wood. All three deserve to start a postseason game. But it takes four deserving starters to avoid the short-rest bogeyman in the postseason. If the Dodgers were a normal team, they would be fine with trusting one of Brandon McCarthy, Kenta Maeda, or Hyun-jin Ryu for that fourth slot. Any of those pitchers would be roughly as good as the No. 4 starters they’ll face in the postseason.

The Dodgers are not a normal team. So this rumor makes sense:

Which one should they go for? I have opinions.

I do wish we had a recording of the calls where the Dodgers keep insisting they need the Tigers to pick up more of the contract.

ZAIDI: Look, ownership is really breaking my back, here. I need you to send over more money to make this work.

AVILA: You’re breaking up a little bit, so I couldn’t hear that last part.

ZAIDI: Sorry, we’re all up here on the moon for a midseason retreat and the reception is horrible. You’re going to need to pay more of Verlander’s salary. We can’t afford it.

Verlander is 34, he’s owed $28 million over the next two years, and he’s pitching poorly this season. There’s pickle juice in that cocktail, and there might not be enough booze to save it. I’d like to cherry pick some micro-splits to suggest that Verlander is on an upward trajectory, but ...

Justin Verlander’s season ERA at the end of each month
April: 4.60
May: 4.50
June: 4.47
July (in progress): 4.50

I would joke that he’ll pitch a complete game for his next start, allowing exactly 4 1/2 runs, except complete games aren’t something Verlander does anymore. He hasn’t pitched into the eighth inning once this year in 21 starts, which is remarkable.

There are two reasons the Dodgers would prefer Verlander: The first is that they can absorb more money to give up lesser prospects. The second is that they might think they can get Verlander back on track; that they’ve identified something that can be fixed.

Could be! But if the question is, “Is Justin Verlander guaranteed to be better than Brandon McCarthy in a postseason start, and is that guarantee worth scores of millions?”, the answer is very much up for debate.

Gray’s appeal isn’t that he’s the greatest pitcher on the market or that he’s exceedingly dominant and will be for years. His appeal is that he’s under contract through 2019 and cheap. While the Dodgers are very much into the idea of that kind of pitcher — see, Alex Wood — it’s not really the upgrade they’re shooting for. They want a postseason rotation that breathes fire. Gray would make them markedly better, but his 2017 season has been a story of consistency, not dominance. His high in innings pitched this month is 6 1/3 innings, and his low is 6 IP. All four starts have been quality.

Add into the mix that Gray would be expensive in terms of prospects, which is something the Dodgers have shied away from in recent years, and this doesn’t make perfect sense. But Gray ...

That’s an important point, and the Dodgers would have their four starters. Not just this year, either.

This is clearly the correct option, though. If they’re going to ditch prospects, ditch them for a fire-breather. Technically, Darvish has been something of a disappointment, with a 4.01 ERA (3.99 FIP) and a 6-9 record that isn’t as nice as the Rangers would have hoped. He’s striking out nearly two batters fewer per nine innings this year, and he allowed 10 earned runs in his last start. Kershaw has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 starts since the end of May.

He’s still great, though. That’s my theory, and I’m sticking with it. The Marlins disaster was a hiccup, and he’s still a pitcher who would give the Cubs, Brewers, Nationals, Diamondbacks, or Rockies fits. He’s still concentrated doom, and he would fit perfectly behind Kershaw.

But it’s not a stretch to suggest this is the worst year for the Dodgers to be eager for that Kershaw complement. There isn’t a blue-chip ace at the deadline like there were in previous seasons with David Price, CC Sabathia, or Randy Johnson. Even the best options this season come with red flags and tugged collars, and the prospect cost isn’t going to be much different.

They’ll do something, though, and that something is apparently to get one of these three pitchers. Darvish is the clear favorite. Gray makes sense in a lot of ways, but he makes more sense for a lot of other teams. Verlander’s reputation gets him in the conversation, but he doesn’t seem to fit what the Dodgers are trying to build, which is an impervious postseason force.

Or, to put it another way: Cody Bellinger for Chris Sale? Who says no?