Which of the wild card teams in the American League could actually win the World Series?

There have been 20 different teams to play in a Wild Card Game in the era of the second wild card. One of them has won the World Series. Nineteen of them have not. While it’s always fair to be scared of the monster at the end of this book, these teams are usually not the ones that win the World Series.

Here’s what’s happened in the past:

That seems like a perfectly random distribution that supports this assertion: A wild card team probably won’t win the World Series this year. I mean, if both the Dodgers and Astros can’t win it, we already knew that, but there’s more evidence to consider.

So let’s figure out which of these second wild cards in the American League is going to win the World Series.

The second wild card is a mess in the AL. The Rays are a game under .500 and they’ve lost seven out of their last 10. They’re right in it. The Orioles’ team ERA+ is 88, one point worse than the 2009 team that lost 98 games. They’re right in it. The Twins have a Pythagorean record of 53-64, which doesn’t just suggest they’re mediocre, but that they’re actively bad. They’re right in it.

However, I would like to offer a counterargument of “but it would be really funny if one of these teams beat the Dodgers, Cubs, or Nationals.” That should be enough to explore the idea. So which one of them could do it?

The first order of business is to wave the Yankees through. They have the lineup. The postseason makes any issues of rotation depth less of an issue. And jeepers, do they have the bullpen, assuming Aroldis Chapman is right. It would be merely a mild surprise if they were to win the whole thing.

The second order of business is to come up for some sort of standard for these teams. I’m going to rely less on gut feelings (“The Royals have experience stabbing hearts out and eating them on live television”) and at least do some cursory analysis. A proper second wild card team with championship hopes should fare well in a few categories. We’ll evaluate them all based on these categories.

To the rankings!

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Yeah, I can see Marcus Stroman going bananas for a few starts. J.A. Happ gives them a worthy No. 2, as well. Not sure if they can trust Marco Estrada and friends after that, but they have a guy who could get hot.

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

At least four.

Do they have a super-reliever who can be used for more than one inning?

Yes. Roberto Osuna’s ERA is unfair. Don’t look at it. He’s still an elite reliever.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Sure. When you plop down a lineup of Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, and Tulowitzki, you can ...

[squints]

Damn. Wha’ happened? Donaldson is hot again, and apparently Justin Smoak is Mark Teixeira in his prime. But other than that, the lineup is kind of a soggy mess.

Mostly, though, they’re last because they’re 3 1/2 games out of the second wild card, and that’s a steep hill to climb against this many teams.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Ervin Santana has shut me up, and I apologize for making fun of the Twins for signing him. He’s a fantastic pitcher, and I can’t express enough regret. To Ervin, to his family, to Twins fans ... I made a terrible mistake.

But is he someone the Twins can ride like Corey Kluber? Nah.

Jose Berrios, though. Sweet Jose Berrios. Even if he’s an erratic rookie, I’ll still take my chances with him. As long as he has a veteran behind him and Santana.

Allllll abooooard the Twins wagon!

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

Not to be rude, but ... zero? They traded Brandon Kintzler, and Twins fans were left without anyone who can complete the sentence, “All right, __________ is in the game. Shutdown time.”

Do they have a super-reliever who can be used for more than one inning?

No.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

My guess is that Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario are exactly the kind of hitters who could be handled by the elite starters and relievers they would see in the postseason. Baseball is weird, sure, but sometimes it’s what you expect. So I’ll go no.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

No. The Orioles starting pitching is so incredibly bad. I keep staring and staring and staring, and Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez are still in the rotation. They’ve combined for 44 starts, and only 12 of them have been quality starts. That’s appalling. That means that in 32 of those 44 starts, they either couldn’t finish six innings, or they allowed four runs or more. That’s 40 percent of the rotation! How is this team within 10 games of a postseason berth?

Ahem, sorry, no. The answer to the question posed above is no. I think Jeremy Hellickson is their ace, and he’s not likely to Bumgarner the place up in October.

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

Depending on what you think about Darren O’Day, they can go three or four team and make a team feel hopeless if they have a lead after six. Which answers that rhetorical question up there about how this team is contending.

Do they have a super-reliever who can be used for more than one inning?

Yes. Zach Britton’s arm should be rested, and he should just be getting sharp as the postseason rolls around.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Yes. They can dinger.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

While I could see this rotation getting the Orioles through a series — maybe two — because baseball is funny like that, I would have to think that at some point, they would get out-dingered by the Yankees, Astros, Indians, Dodgers, et cetera before they made a miracle run.

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Yes. Cole Hamels isn’t the whirlwind he used to be, but he’s still a fine pitcher — someone the Rangers could feel comfortable starting on short rest in a Game 5 or Game 7.

After that, there’s Andrew Cashner, who has been just as effective preventing runs but has a ghastly FIP to go with his ERA, and he’s suddenly striking out people like he’s Aaron Cook. Except I’m not sure if he’s the same kind of sabermetric nightmare that Cook was. He’s probably just lucky.

If only the Rangers had one more starter. But where were they going to find one of those at the deadline?

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

Alex Claudio has the kind of peripherals that make me think of Sam Dyson, but I would never tell Rangers fans that. Matt Bush has been mostly fine since being removed from the closer’s role. Jose Leclerc is wild and hilarious, and I guess he can shut a team down, even though he’s a character from a Pynchon novel.

But I’m not going to call any of them shutdown relievers. So to answer the question: maximum of three, minimum of zero. It would be super rude of me to point out that Dyson has a 2.13 ERA (3.21 FIP) since leaving, so I wouldn’t dream of it.

Do they have a super-reliever who can be used for more than one inning?

No.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Kind of, but only because I’m pretty sure Rougned Odor is better than this.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

No. I suppose it’s at this point that I’ll sigh deeply, give up, and force myself to look at their current rotation. I’ve been avoiding this because I didn’t want to puncture the illusion. Let’s see ... OK, thought he was retired ... pretty sure that’s a lefty specialist ... can’t say that I’ve heard of this guy, but I can’t admit that as a national writer ... Tyler Skaggs, who is pretty good! ... and Roster Resource just ends after four, which is perfect.

To be fair, the Angels have been ravaged by injuries in the rotation more than almost any other team here, so they get credit just for making it interesting. They also get credit for Parker Bridwell pitching like a dynamo after they acquired from the Orioles (the team without any starting pitchers that we made fun of above) for a player to be named later or cash.

But ... no, they don’t have an ace of aces to rally behind.

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

Three or four? Bud Norris is probably better than his ERA, but they traded David Hernandez at the deadline, so they aren’t exactly dominant from the sixth on.

Do they have a super-reliever who can be used for more than one inning?

I’m the world’s biggest Yusmeiro Petit fan, and the last time a wild card team did win the World Series, he threw six scoreless innings in one of the greatest relief appearances I’ve ever seen.

But, no. Probably not.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Friend, I can picture Mike Trout doing a lot of things.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Danny Duffy is pretty close. I suppose we should have seen Jason Vargas turning into Jason Vargas, but it’s also possible his last seven starts are a blip. They don’t fare super poorly in this category, but I have concerns about their rotation depth.

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

This is not the 2014 Royals bullpen. If you assume that Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer are better than they’ve been since they traded for them, they might go three or four deep.

Do they have a super-reliever who can be used for more than one inning?

Not exactly, but Joakim Soria’s super-low home run rate and low FIP give him a chance to surprise. Except maybe he’s hurt.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Kind of. They’re built a little like the Twins, in that they have hitters who will crush mistakes (Moustakas, Perez), which could be a problem if they face pitchers who don’t make them.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Probably? In Chris Archer’s last two months, he’s thrown four quality starts. Wait, check that: He’s thrown four bare-minimum quality starts of exactly six innings pitched and three runs. Around them, he’s sandwiched six innings and four runs, or six innings and two runs, or 5⅓ innings and three runs, or ... it’s been an impressive run of functional starts, with quality starts mixed in.

But this is the team that makes me want a new category: Do they have enough depth in the rotation to avoid needing overworking an ace? And the answer is yes. If you believe in Jacob Faria (which you should), and if you believe Alex Cobb will come back strong (turf toe is no joke, but there’s no reason not to believe this.)

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

First, I think that Steve Cishek and Sergio Romo should get to stand on the mound at the same time, and that they should get to alternate pitches, just to mess with the hitters in a more dramatic, fun fashion.

The Rays were active at the deadline, and those two have been fine so far. They also have Alex Colome doing good things and a resurgent Tommy Hunter. Brad Boxberger is back, although it’s been a couple of years since he was super effective. I’ll assume that one of Cishek and Romo is steady, which gives them three or four.

Do they have a super-reliever who can be used for more than one inning?

Colome is fine, but I think I had Andrew Miller in mind for this category. It turns out that none of these teams has Andrew Miller. Maybe they should get him, imo.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Kind of. It’s not the most balanced lineup, but if you’re a believer in Logan Morrison or Corey Dickerson (581 OPS since July), you can make an argument that they can be scary. The team ranks third in the AL in adjusted OPS, so I’ll wave them through.

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

Do they have at least one ace they can work the hell out of?

Assuming he’s not broken, yes. James Paxton is a talented fellow, and he could definitely put the team on his back.

How many relievers does it take until they get to an iffy one?

They can go pretty deep, especially if you’re a believer in Emilio Pagan. They have five solid relievers, and they mix and match lefty-righty pretty well, too.

Do they have a super-reliever who can be used for more than one inning?

Edwin Diaz isn’t the same cyclone that he was last year, but he’s plenty good, and I could see him in an extra-stress role pretty easily.

Can you picture their offense scoring several times off Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw in an elimination game?

Yes, but only because I’m pretty sure Kyle Seager is better than this and also because I could see someone like Robinson Cano getting fiery hot for a month. They don’t need Ben Gamel and Mitch Haniger to resume hitting like they were for the first couple of months (though that would be rad).

Would it be funny if this team beat the Dodgers, who will apparently finish with 163 wins?

Yes.

So give me the Mariners as the wild card team with the best chance to win the World Series. This is based on an empirical look at their roster and strengths.

[James Paxton swallows tub of uranium marked “DON’T SWALLOW: TUB OF URANIUM”]

The Mariners have been underperforming for a variety of reasons.

[Robinson Cano is arrested by Springfield police for unsolved murders in New York]

I don’t see a reason why they can’t be the team to stun the world.

[Mariner Moose eats entire 25-man roster]

So put me down for the Mariners as my Team to Watch™ in the 2017 Wild Card watch. I don’t see what could possibly go wrong for them.