When did the likely Baseball Hall of Fame inductees become Hall of Famers?

There’s a chance that when the Baseball Hall of Fame results are announced, more players will have been elected in any year since the inaugural class of 1936. That class was Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Christy Mathewson, and Walter Johnson, and it’s been 82 years since there’s been a class that big.

Which is a fancy way of saying that Edgar Martinez probably isn’t getting in this year. Which is going to make me want to punch a wall again.

Still, there’s a great chance that four Hall of Famers will be elected Wednesday night, which would be just the second time since 1955. Our goal today is to determine when these Hall of Famers became Hall of Famers. For example, we know the exact moment Jack Morris became a Hall of Famer. It was Oct. 27, 1991, when he pitched a 10-inning shutout in Game 7 of the World Series. He won 21 games the next season, which was his last good year, but you know that he was essentially inducted on Oct. 27, 1991.

What’s that? Rules?

6. Automatic Elections: No automatic elections based on performances such as a batting average of .400 or more for one (1) year, pitching a perfect game or similar outstanding achievement shall be permitted.

We don’t need no rules. And it was an unofficial automatic election, so it’s technically fine. It was just something that added to Morris’ aura and pushed it over the top.

It won’t be like that for these (or most) inductees. It won’t be a moment. It will probably be a season. After a great season, one of several in a row, Chipper Jones became Chipper Jones, Hall of Famer. When did that happen?

My best guesses ...

One of the ideas kicking around in the ol’ SB Nation MLB Slack was to do a retrospective on the most famous/memorable moments of each player’s career. At the same time, a couple of different people typed, “Wait, what was Chipper Jones’ most memorable moment?” and hit enter. It wasn’t proof of anything, but it sure said something.

For me, I’ll always remember his Super Bowl party:

In which Brad Clontz was the celebrity with the longest bio.

So, no, he doesn’t have a Jack Morris moment. Few players, if any, do.

What we know: Jones played 19 seasons. In all of those seasons, he was a badass hitter. That’s incredible consistency, and he went from a first-overall pick to a 40-year-old man who could still hit the snot out of the ball, without a single break in the middle.

It’s tricky to find that tipping point, though, because he didn’t get to 3,000 hits or 500 homers. His was not a career of raw accumulation. He just hit and walked and hit and hit. And ran, at least early in his career!

It’s tempting to suggest that it was his .364 season in 2008, when he was 36, that got him in, but that’s what will get him in with better than 95 percent of the vote. He was a career .307/.403/.546 hitter before that season, which is first-ballot stuff.

My pick is the 2004 season, which was one of the worst of his career. He hit .248/.362/.485, which was good for a 116 OPS+ that was the worst since his rookie year, and it was the contrast that made people realize that Jones had eight stellar, full seasons in a row. He had nine straight years with at least one MVP vote, five years where he finished in the top 10, and five All-Star appearances. He had made the postseason in every full season of his career, which he had an awful lot to do with.

It was that down season that made you realize that if he finished his career like Dale Murphy, he was still in.

Then he got better.

Huh. Turns out there was an easily defined tipping point for this Hall of Fame case after all.

Unless it came a little earlier. I promise you, there was a time when people were debating Thome’s Hall of Fame case. Check out this thread from the number one source for baseball and running conversation, LetsRun.com:

I think he might be the first guy with over 500 Home Runs who does not get in the Hall.

To which the response came:

I think Mark McGwire beat him to that. And no on Thome.

And it continued ...

Thome is not a first ballot HOF’er. Not by a long shot. Voters will really discount him for his poor (non-existent) defense and one-dimensionality.

And continued ...

Jim Thorpe was an amazing athlete!!

And ... dammit, Carl. But you get the idea. As of 2009, when Thome was 38 and a career .277/.404/.557 hitter with 564 home runs, there were people still wondering if he would make it. After that season he played parts of three years, hitting for a 904 OPS while being limited to pinch-hitting and DH duties, so that didn’t do it.

I’m starting to think those running enthusiasts don’t know a lot about baseball.

Over at Reddit, just a couple of years later, the question was dismissed as if it was about Ken Griffey, Jr. Of course Thome was getting in. What a stupid question. Next. This was the correct response.

My pick is, look at that, the 2004 season, just like Jones. It was Thome’s 10th straight season of absolutely MASHING. Not just hitting better than most of his peers, in that Dwight Evans kind of way, but MASHING. Lead-the-league-in-slugging mashing. Call-the-lefty-in-from-the-bullpen-in-an-11-0-rout mashing.

I don’t care if the hitter in question has a glove on his foot and tries to kick the ball around the bases with his other foot: He gets consideration for the Hall of Fame after that. Thankfully, Thome was just fine in the field. Not especially good, not even average, but his MASHING made up for it.

The trickiest one of all. He didn’t have 3,000 hits, and he didn’t come especially close. He finished with 449 home runs, so that’s no help.

This one doesn’t really have a deep dive attached to it for two reasons:

Realistically, Guerrero gets the boost over Walker because of his preternatural ability to hit over .300 while swinging at baseballs that were thrown at his toes. To be able to do that is special and fun. Guerrero was an incredibly fun player.

Where’s the tipping point for fun, though?

I’ll guess the 2007 season, which was his 13th year in the majors. He was a career .325 hitter to that point, with 365 home runs, and he’d generally stayed healthy for most of his career. While he would rest as a DH occasionally, he was still showing off his delightful arm and making the sport easier to watch. He wasn’t quite a second-balloter by then, but he was at least going to get in before his 10 years were up.

This one is relatively easy. In 2006, Hoffman led the league in saves with 46, and he finished second in the Cy Young voting, somehow. He wasn’t that far from winning, either! He was clearly thought of as something more than the typical closer.

In a bit of foreshadowing, Billy Wagner finished sixth in the Cy Young voting that year, but with a higher WAR. That’s ... perfect.

And in 2006, this happened:

There you go. He broke the record that would eventually be broken a couple years later, but that was enough to vault him into the “Future Hall of Famer” class. There were a couple years after that, but that was the day he truly became president. Of the Hall of Fame of Closers.

Until Mariano Rivera pushed him out.

But still.

He might not be a Hall of Famer after this ballot! I’m guessing he doesn’t get in. He should. And he probably will on his final year on the ballot next year. But I’m guessing he falls agonizingly short this year.

He’ll be the Tim Raines of next year. And, yes, that annoys the hell out of me too.

So I’ll have to save this section for next year. Next year needs #content, too.

Like, 25 years ago, buttheads.

Same.

But for the players who will get in, those are the tipping points. They weren’t as obvious as others, and there’s definitely some room for debate. When those seasons happened, though, it was probably about time for them to start daydreaming about the kind of speech they were going to make.

I probably nailed the J.G. Taylor Spink Award down with that Chipper Jones Super Bowl Party article, if we’re being honest.