There is a month to go in the regular season, and a few of the playoff races are essentially over. But there are still intriguing battles to be waged over the final four weeks in Major League Baseball. Here are the three races to watch in September.
MLB playoff races to watch in September
30 days remain in the regular season, and anywhere from 3 to 6 playoff spots remain up for grabs.
National League West
The race: 3 teams for 1 spot
Teams: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers
This one is the best race going, with the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Dodgers bunched together closer than any other division race. There is some fallback potential here with all three teams still very much alive in the Wild Card derby, but avoiding that play-in game is very much preferred.
Entering Friday Arizona is in first place, leading Colorado by 1½ games and Los Angeles by two.
The key here is the games left against each other. LA and Arizona are playing this weekend in LA, and still have six games remaining against each other. The Rockies play the Dodgers six more times, and play the D-backs seven more times.
All three teams have better road records than at home, but it’s worth noting that down the stretch Colorado has the most home games remaining, with 17. Arizona has 15 and Los Angeles just 12.
National League Wild Card
In theory this could also be eight teams for two spots, but with the Cubs owning a 4½-game advantage in the NL Central and the Braves up three games in the NL East, let’s pencil them in as division winners for now. But the next six teams in the National League pecking order are separated by just 3½ games.
National League standings
Spot | Team | W-L | Pct | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NL Central | Cubs | 79-54 | 0.594 | --- |
| NL East | Braves | 74-59 | 0.556 | 5 |
| NL West | Diamondbacks | 74-60 | 0.552 | 5½ |
| Wild Card | Cardinals | 75-59 | 0.560 | +½ |
| Wild Card | Brewers | 75-60 | 0.556 | --- |
| Rockies | 72-61 | 0.541 | 2 | |
| Dodgers | 72-62 | 0.537 | 2½ | |
| Phillies | 71-62 | 0.534 | 3 |
St. Louis has surged to the top of the Wild Card heap thanks to a 28-13 record under manager Mike Shildt, who saw the interim tag removed this week with a two-year contract extension to continue at the Cardinals helm.
The Rockies, also in a divisional fight (see above), have been similarly hot, winning 26 of their last 42 games.
A couple of key figures in the National League playoff positioning can look back to the early part of the season, both mired in slumps. Here were some numbers on May 23:
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals: .199/.320/.370, 4 HR
Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: .200/.324/.371, 6 HR
But here we are three months later and Carpenter and Goldschmidt look a lot more like Carptener and Goldschmidt, ranking first and third respectively in the NL in home runs:
Carpenter: .273/.387/.574, 34 HR
Goldschmidt: .291/.395/.541, 30 HR
Here is a how often the top eight teams in the NL play each other over the final 31 days of the season:
- Cubs: 15 games (6 at home)
- Braves: 14 games (7 at home)
- Cardinals: 13 games (7 at home)
- Brewers: 9 games (3 at home)
- Diamondbacks: 20 games (13 at home)
- Rockies: 17 games (10 at home)
- Dodgers: 16 games (6 at home)
- Phillies: 14 games (6 at home)
Milwaukee has the fewest number of games left against other top NL squads. Arizona has the most, plus also has a three-game interleague series against the defending champion Astros. The Braves also host the Red Sox — owners of MLB’s best record — for three games in September.
American League West and Wild Card
The AL has been an odd vortex for most of the season, with the four expected super teams essentially proceeding nearly unchallenged. The top two records reside in the AL East, with the juggernaut Red Sox leading the Yankees by 8½ games. New York’s playoff chances are not in question, but they might have to settle for the Wild Card Game despite sporting a 102-win pace.
The Indians own a 14-game lead in the AL Central, the largest divisional advantage in baseball, which basically leaves the AL West to decide the rest of the field.
The race: 3 teams for 2 spots
Teams: Astros, A’s, Mariners
Houston is the reigning World Series champ and are strong again, owners of the top run differential in the majors (+221). The Astros lead the AL West by 2½ games, but this division is not over by any means.
The Athletics have led a furious charge by winning 46 of their last 65 games, and even briefly caught Houston for first place in the division. But with starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Brett Anderson getting hurt, Oakland has an uphill battle, especially for the division. Manaea is their ace, and his rotator cuff could derail their chances.
There is a potential fallback for the A’s, who lead the Mariners by 4½ games for the second Wild Card spot. Seattle has had injuries of their own, with James Paxton and Marco Gonzales on the disabled list, and have been outscored on the season.
Seattle entered Thursday with a 9.6% chance to make the playoffs per FanGraphs, with the A’s at 90.2%.
The Mariners and A’s play each other this weekend in Oakland, and play again in Seattle for three games during the last week of the regular season.
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