Will UFC 126 Get More Pay-Per-View Buys Because Of Super Bowl Weekend?
Is there any truth to the idea that UFC events held on Super Bowl weekend do better than the average UFC pay-per-view event?
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With UFC 126 just a few hours away, on the eve of Super Bow XLV, let’s take a look at the five previous UFC cards held on Super Bowl weekend:
- 2006: UFC 57, which featured the rubber match between Randy Couture and Chuck Liddell. The event pulled in a reported 400,000 buys as well as a gate of $3.3 million. This was the first pay-per-view event of that year. The average for 2006 was approximately 520,000. However, that figure is misleading. The average pay-per-view rate in 2005 was 158,000.
- 2007: UFC 67, headlined by Anderson Silva vs. Travis Lutter (who earned his shot by winning season four of The Ultimate Fighter), pulled in between 350,000 to 400,000 buys. This event also featured the UFC debuts of Quinton Jackson an Mirko Cro Cop. The gate was approximately $2.7 million. This was also the first pay-per-view event of the year for the UFC. The 2007 average (UFC 67 - 79) was approximately 460,000.
- 2008: UFC 81 featured the UFC debut of MMA superstar Brock Lesnar. His co-main event saw him lose by submission to Frank Mir. This event was headlined by a UFC heavyweight interim title fight between Tim Sylvia and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The UFC card pulled in approximately 600,000 buys, while the UFC average that year (UFC 80 - 92) was 520,000. The gate for UFC 81 was $2.43 million. It should be noted if we accept UFC 100 did 1.6 million buys, that would make Lesnar's UFC ppv average just over 1,000,000 per show.
- 2009: UFC 94, featuring the highly-anticipated rematch of pound-for-pound greats Georges St. Pierre and BJ Penn, did a whopping 920,000 buys. It also pulled a staggering gate of $4.3 million. This was actually the second pay-per-view event of the year (UFC 93 - 107). The 2009 average was 617,000 although that's debatable based on UFC 100 actual returns.
- 2010: UFC 109 did an abysmally low 275,000 buys with a gate of $2.27 million. The event was headlined by Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman and co-headlined by Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen. This, too, was the second UFC ppv event of the year (UFC 108 - 124). The 2010 average for the UFC was 620,000.
What do these results tell us? In terms of measuring what factors affect pay-per-view buys, we cannot reasonably conclude Super Bowl weekend adds anything meaningful to the buy rate.
Instead, star power (or a lack thereof) as well as the general health trend of the company appear to be the biggest factors of ppv success. In the case of UFC 57, the event did not meet the average of the year, but was positioned somewhat in the middle of a dramatic growth curve in terms of UFC PPV buys. Yet, in the cases of UFC 94 and UFC 81, the events did better than the average, but also featured some of the sport’s top ppv attractions. UFC 109 also featured Randy Couture, but against an opponent in a fight few cared much about. Chael Sonnen also appeared on that card, but the Oregonian felon didn’t elevate his name and ppv status until his subsequent fight with UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva.
Given these considerations, what can we expect tonight's UFC 126 to pull in? We already know the gate receipts are expected to outpace recent large-scale events like UFC 121. The card includes fan-favorite fighters like Forrest Griffin and Rich Franklin. While not massive attractions, the bout between Ryan Bader and Jon Jones has been successful in attracting media attention and building hype for their showdown. And while the main event is clearly more popular in Brazil than in the United States (and Anderson Silva's relationship with fans is at both attraction and revulsion), the promotional efforts to position Belfort as a credible challenger to Silva's title appear to have picked up considerable steam.
My best guess? I’d put this card somewhere in the neighborhood of 600 to 700,000 buys, although it has the capacity to go even higher. What we can say confidently, though, is that the buyrate has little to do with either the Packers or the Steelers.
Speaking of which: Go Packers.
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