Has Kyrie Irving Shown Enough To Become No. 1 NBA Draft Pick?

Kyrie Irving, whose Duke Blue Devils were booted from the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, has been atop DraftExpress' Top 100 NBA Draft prospects list all year despite playing just eight regular season games. Irving broke his toe in December, and returned only for Duke's Tournament appearance. That added three more games to his body of work.

Don't forget that just five years ago high school seniors were regularly considered and on occasion chosen with the No. 1 pick. NBA general managers overwhelmingly trust their own workout observations and scouts' reports over production assessments. That's good and bad. Some untested or unproductive players (Kwame Brown, Marvin Williams) who go high fail to live up to expectations at the pro level. But others (Andrew Bynum, Marc Gasol) slip and end up doing well. Balancing potential and risk is always a challenge.

Consider the last 10 No. 1 picks: only one -- Kenyon Martin -- went first after his fourth college season. Three (Kwame, LeBron James and Dwight Howard) came straight out of high school, two came from overseas without NCAA experience (Yao Ming, Andrea Bargnani), three entered the draft after one year of college (Derrick Rose, John Wall, Greg Oden) and two after two years (Andrew Bogut, Blake Griffin). NBA decision-makers have not shied away from untested or lightly-tested players, even with the top pick.

It still remains to be seen whether Irving will come out; Duke has a solid record of keeping even highly-touted prospects in school, though 2004 No. 7 pick Luol Deng and 1999 top pick Elton Brand stick out. But there should be little fear in his camp that NBA teams will shy away from him solely because of his shortened season. GMs will trust their evaluations, right or wrong.