The Chicago Bulls look like solid bets to enter the NBA Playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the East, leading the Boston Celtics, who have won two of the past three conference titles, and the Miami Heat, who burst forth from Pat Riley's loins so viscerally that TV networks devoted hour-long shows to how much they hated LeBron James' hour-long The Decision.
Celtics, Heat Have Questions Galore As NBA Playoffs Approach
Before you dismiss the Bulls’ chances of making the NBA Finals, consider that their chief rivals have plenty of questions to answer.
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The Bulls were expected to improve substantially; everyone (except for the Clippers) seemed to understand how much better than Vinny Del Negro Tom Thibodeau projected to be (even with his supreme intensity and lack of head coaching experience), and Carlos Boozer is the post scorer Chicago has been waiting on literally forever. Add in superlative improvement from Derrick Rose, and you've got a big jump.
Despite that, the Bulls have that unexperienced, untested tag ‘round their necks heading into the playoffs. Pundits will search for ways to discount them, questioning Rose’s supporting cast, whether the defense will hold, whether Rose will raise his game in the postseason as so many great ones do. Some questions will be valid, some inane. (Spoiler alert: Skip Bayless and Colin Cowherd will be providing the inane ones.)
But something to keep in mind as those questions pop up is that it isn’t as if the other top contenders in the East don’t have questions, too. Consider this a preliminary investigation of what could go wrong for the Celtics and Heat.
Are the Celtics' toast at center? Nenad Krstic's leg collapsed from under him in Thursday's win over the Spurs, and he went in for an MRI on Friday. Behind him, the C's have Jermaine O'Neal, who on Thursday played in his first game since early January. (He had five points and one rebound in 11 minutes.) Shaquille O'Neal hasn't played since Feb. 1. While J.O. was an underrated factor in Miami's great defense a year ago, and while Shaq was able to play 22 minutes a game in the 2010 playoffs despite missing much of the Cavaliers' regular season, the spot is a huge question mark right now. Boston aimed for depth last summer by signing Shaq and J.O. as the team knew Kendrick Perkins would need time to recover from injury. But by trading Perk for Krstic, the time's in a real pinch. Can they handle Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, Tim Duncan or Pau Gasol?
Can the Heat win a dozen halfcourt games? Miami has been at its best this season when it gets out in transition and picks up the pace. The quality of the Heat’s athletes is just so superior at three positions that the fast break is nearly impossible to stop. The best antidote is a slowdown, half-court game ... something that pops up quite frequently in the playoffs, especially given the teams the Heat are likely to face. The C’s and Bulls are famously methodical (Nos. 22 and 23 in pace, respectively), and in its losses to those teams, Miami has played into it. The Heat themselves more frequently settle into the halfcourt game anyways; that will only expand in the postseason, and that’s not good for Miami.
How heavily will the C's and Heat be tested in the first round? The central advantage of the No. 1 seed in the NBA is home court advantage; teams win 60 percent of the home games in the league, creating a larger advantage than the NFL, MLB or NHL sees. But should the Bulls hang on to No. 1 in the East, there's another advantage: There's a massive drop-off between the Nos. 7 and 8 teams this season. The Pacers or Bobcats will be the No. 8 seed, and should be at least six games under .500. (The Pacers are current eight games under.) The Knicks will be the No. 7 seed, and while they've been LOLworthy of late, they still have Carmelo Anthony (whose always given LeBron James trouble and can definitely outplay Paul Pierce), Amar'e Stoudemire (who can score against anyone in the league, even Kevin Garnett) and Chauncey Billups (they don't call him Mr. Big Shot for nothin'). The Sixers will No. 6, and that team would scare the crap out of any team in the playoffs. A long series for either Boston or Miami could hurt going forward.
Will Miami have enough confidence against the Bulls and Celtics? I think the Heat’s record against Chicago and Boston (0-for-the-season) has been overblown, but confidence is a strange, strange creature. If the Heat believe the hype, it could create just enough of an edge for the otherwise equally matched Bulls and C’s.
Do Boston's vets have enough juice left? Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have perfect attendance this season, some 5,100 minutes between them. They are on pace to finish where they did last season, but they're a year older with all that mileage ticking up. Boston may skate through the first round, but expect long series in the conference semifinals and finals, if they get there. By the time the NBA Finals roll around, these old men could be completely gassed. They made it to a Game 7 in June last season, but wind and physical wellness has to remain a concern for these veteran warriors.
Keep in mind when prognosticators begin to rule the Bulls out on account of being too green that the Eastern terms that could unseat Chicago have issues of their own.
(I’m sorry, Magic fans. I hope you understand.)
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