What has happened to the Minnesota Timberwolves is nothing short of amazing. We have the first tank job by a team that in no way benefits from tanking. The Wolves' first-round pick is headed to New Orleans as a result of a Sam Cassell-Marko Jaric trade six years ago and the Chris Paul trade four months ago. There are no protections on it: whether it is No. 1 or No. 14, the Hornets get it. As such, there is no incentive for the Wolves to lose.
NBA Draft Lottery Watch: Timberwolves Offer Gift To The Hornets
The Minnesota Timberwolves are tanking on behalf of the New Orleans Hornets. If only the rest of the world was so considerate.
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The same cannot be said for the New Jersey Nets or Golden State Warriors. The Nets keep their pick if it lands in the top three only; the lower in the standings the Nets finish, the greater the probability that New Jersey Brooklyn keeps it. The Warriors keep their pick if it lands in the top seven, which creates an even stronger incentive for Golden State to tank. The only way the Nets can land in the top three is by luck of the ping pong balls. The Warriors can almost assuredly stay in the top seven if they finish with the sixth-worst record.
Because of those conditions, we aren't surprised to see Deron Williams sit, or David Lee to take the rest of the season off. But to see the Wolves lose 11 straight (and counting)? That's unreal.
Here’s a look at where the lottery odds for winning the No. 1 pick, a top-3 pick and a top-5 pick stand as of Thursday.
What you don't see: the Wolves are within two wins of the Detroit Pistons, and three games of Nets-Warriors-Raptors pack. It's unlikely that any of those teams will win three more games, but the Basketball Gods work in mysterious ways.
A quick explainer on how ties work, since teams are bunched up around 20 and 22 wins: all teams tied with a certain record at season's end will combine and split their lottery combinations. That's manifested with the Raptors and Nets above. If the combined number of combinations is not evenly divisible by the number of teams tied, a coin flip or series of coin flips determines who gets the extra. (For example, if the Kings and Cavaliers tie for No. 4, they'd have 207 combined lotto combinations. A coin flip would decided which team gets 104 and which gets 103.)
The coin flip decides one more item: the draft order barring lottery wins. Where this matters a ton: if the Warriors are in a tie for any combination for 6-7-8. Say that the Warriors, Nets and Raptors finish all even. If the Warriors win those coin flips to determine draft order, they will be heavily favored to get the No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, No. 6 or No. 7 pick, with a small chance at getting No. 8. If the Warriors are assigned No. 7 after the coin flips, there’s a bigger chance they fall to No. 8. If they lose the coin flips, it’d be top three or nothing.
The lottery races worth watching for the final week of the season: Kings-Cavaliers, with the Hornets having an outside shot at being caught by either; whether the Nets and Warriors can finish worse than the Raptors (and whether the Warriors can “pass” N.J.); and just how much further the Wolves can fall on the Hornets’ behalf. It’s not quite the playoff race, but it’s something!
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