NBA expected to change draft lottery odds, according to report

The 30 NBA teams will soon vote on a proposal that dramatically decreases the odds of the worst teams earning the top pick in the NBA draft lottery starting as soon as next season, according to Grantland’s Zach Lowe. The vote could happen as soon as the NBA Board of Governors meeting in late Oct. and is expected to pass “easily,” according to Lowe.

Under the terms of the new proposal, the league’s four worst teams will have an equal 12 percent chance of earning the top pick, with the next two teams following with only slightly worse odds. The league would draw ping pong balls for the top six spots instead of the top three, so the worst team is guaranteed to pick no worse than seventh. The odds for the other selections would be as follows.

Currently, only three spots are drawn and the worst team is guaranteed to finish no lower than fourth. The worst team has a 25 percent shot to win the lottery, followed by a 19.9-percent chance for the second-worst team and a 15.6-percent chance for the third-worst. This old system had persisted since 1993.

But the movement for reform has grown strong in response to the Philadelphia 76ers’ strategy of bottoming out completely to put themselves in position to win high draft picks. Rival teams are angered by the 76ers’ approach, which has netted them Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric in the last three years. The 76ers are sure to oppose the new proposal because it dramatically affects their rebuilding strategy, but they aren’t expected to receive much support from the other 28 teams.

Any vote that happens this season is expected to go into effect immediately.