All the Utah Jazz had to do on Wednesday to guarantee the fourth-worst record in the NBA was lose. Had the Jazz lost, they would have guaranteed:
How much did the Jazz hurt their NBA draft lottery chances with that 2OT win?
The Jazz were so close to clinching the fourth-worst record in the NBA. So close.
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
- An 11.9 percent probability of winning the No. 1 overall pick.
- A 37.8 percent probability of winning a top-3 pick.
- A 82.8 percent probability of picking in the top five.
Instead, the Jazz beat the Timberwolves ... in double-overtime. Now the Jazz are tied with the Boston Celtics -- who lost as intended on Wednesday -- at 25-57. The NBA will hold a random drawing on Friday to determine whether the Jazz or Celtics are listed first in the default draft order. This is now what the Jazz are guaranteed heading into that drawing:
NBA Draft Lottery
- A 10.3 percent probability of winning the No. 1 overall pick.
- A 33.5 percent probability of winning a top-3 pick.
- A 59.6 percent probability of picking in the top five.
If the Jazz win the random drawing, their odds of picking in the top three will drop as described above and will most likely pick No. 4 or No. 5. If the Jazz lose the drawing, their odds of picking in the top three will drop as described above, they will have no chance at all of picking No. 4 and they will most likely pick No. 5 or No. 6.
That’s really what the Jazz gave up by winning on Wednesday: instead of most likely picking No. 4 or No. 5 -- where someone like Jabari Parker is potentially available -- the Jazz could, by losing the drawing, most likely pick No. 5 or No. 6. The further from No. 3 the Jazz land, the lower the likelihood of Parker being available.
Keep in mind as well that many consider the top five in the draft -- Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Parker, Julius Randle and Dante Exum -- to stand out from the others. The team that wins No. 6 is likely looking at Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon and Noah Vonleh instead of those glorious five.
We’ll find out Friday where the Ping Pong Gods smile upon the Jazz for their valiant victory ... or laugh as they reward the Celtics.
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