There is still some heavy lifting to be done this summer before we can neatly summarize the last few days in the NBA. Greg Monroe and Eric Bledsoe remain unsigned and at some point Kevin Love is going to be traded. He has the ability to tilt the balance of power one way or another.
Free agency brings competitive balance to the Eastern Conference
The East is up for grabs with as many as a half-dozen teams eying the Finals. That won’t make it better, but it will make it far more competitive.
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
What does seem clear is that the Eastern Conference looks very different than it did on June 15 when the Spurs ended the mini Heat dynasty. (Brief digression: Four Finals appearances and two championships in four years is a historic accomplishment, on par with what the Celtics were able to do from 1984-1987 during Larry Bird's prime. It's not the greatest run, obviously, but it was far from a failure.)
Summer League
The restructuring began on draft night when the top four picks and nine of the first 12 selections were made by Eastern Conference teams. That talent infusion has been on display through the early days of summer league as players like Andrew Wiggins, Doug McDermott and Elfrid Payton have already made positive impressions. That list doesn’t include Nerlens Noel, whose games have been must-watch events or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who was the best player in Orlando.
That's great for the East, which has been painfully dull in addition to producing mediocre teams over the last few years. Look no further than last season's All-Star team where it was just as hard to find a dozen deserving representatives from the East as it was to select the Western conference team that didn't have room for Goran Dragic or DeMarcus Cousins.
Still, it will take years for the young players to develop. In the here and now, last weekend changed everything in the East. When LeBron James left Miami for Cleveland, he not only broke up the conference’s dominant team, he left a half-dozen franchises capable of contending status with no obvious favorite. That might not make for a competitive Finals, but it does make for a far more interesting regular season.
This is forced competitive balance, and that was one of the league’s goals during the lockout. That stance was met with justifiable skepticism from observers who believe that parity is just another word for keeping salaries in check, but it’s hard to deny that the new CBA is having the desired effect.
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has been calling this "player sharing," which is another tidy euphemism for keeping costs under control and saving owners from themselves. Even the Brooklyn Nets have started cutting costs, which led Paul Pierce to sign with Washington on a perfectly reasonable two-year deal.
In the here and now, last weekend changed everything in the East.
"Our goal was not to break up teams," Silver said back in June during the Finals. "We had a transition in which the more harsher luxury tax would be implemented. But ultimately, any type of cap system in essence is a form of player sharing. So, yes, to the extent that James Harden leaves Oklahoma City and the Houston Rockets then become a competitive team, that's a positive thing for the league. And part of the purpose of a cap system is so you don't see too much talent aggregated in one market."
Hi, Miami.
LeBron changed everything by making a personal choice that very few players are able to make. If James had re-signed with the Heat, the East would look largely the same as it did before. Instead, with LeBron in Cleveland, the East is suddenly up for grabs. Here’s a snapshot look at the reformulated conference, but keep in mind all of this is subject to change in two years when the summer of 2016 will rock the league yet again.
Photo credit: Ronald Martinez
THE CONTENDERS
Chicago: The Bulls didn't get Melo, but they did add two significant players in Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic without breaking up their young core. By keeping the likes of Taj Gibson, Jimmy Butler and Tony Snell, the Bulls were able to add rather than tear down. The CBA did cost them Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer, but they are better positioned for the next few years.
They’ll still have that great defense and one of the best tactical coaches in the league, along with grinders and role players who excel at their jobs. The obvious concern is Derrick Rose, who has now missed most of two seasons and three playoffs since winning the MVP.
With a healthy Rose, a legit low-post scorer in Gasol and some improved shooting from McDermott and Mirotic, the Bulls are as close to a favorite as you can get at the moment.
Indiana: The Pacers won 56 games and came within two games of reaching the Finals, so while their late-season swoon was horrific to watch, it wasn’t a complete collapse. You can thank -- or blame -- the lack of quality teams in the East for that, and the Pacers still have that awesome defense and a pair of star players entering their prime.
The big issues remain and are exacerbated by losing Lance Stephenson. They lack creativity on the offensive end and still have a bench that inspires fear and loathing among the faithful. Stephenson could have helped solve some of both problems, but even with Lance, the Pacers still had an offense ranked in the bottom third in points per possession.
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
The clock is ticking loudly on this run and unless Larry Bird is able to trade for a player like Rajon Rondo, this looks very much like the same team we've seen for the last three seasons that was very good, but not good enough. The problem, of course, is that Bird doesn't have a whole lot to offer without breaking up the very thing that has allowed them to get to this point.
So, they’re there. A contender in name only, but a contender nonetheless.
Miami: You don’t replace LeBron James, but Pat Riley was able to salvage a solid team by getting Chris Bosh to re-up while bringing back most of Miami’s productive players and signing Deng to favorable terms. Deng’s three-point shooting has declined the last two seasons, but his other numbers have remained consistent and he’s a versatile wing defender who can play off Bosh and Wade.
This looks like a 50-win team, assuming Wade can carry a bit more weight and everyone else can stay healthy.
Bosh is the key. He averaged 24 and 11 in his last season in Toronto and helped keep that team in playoff contention despite the absence of anyone who would be considered a second star. He willingly sacrificed his game and his numbers during his first four years in Miami, famously moving out to the perimeter and taking on a huge defensive role. It will be fascinating to see him make the adjustment back to a primary scorer.
This looks like a 50-win team, assuming Wade can carry a bit more weight and everyone else can stay healthy. Riley still has more work to do to fill out the roster, but they absorbed the blow as well as anyone could have hoped.
THE UP AND COMERS
Cleveland: In 2007, LeBron took a far less talented Cavs team to the NBA Finals under similar conference circumstances, i.e. no great team, lots of decent ones. That team was older and more experienced, but would you rather have Kyrie Irving and Andrew Wiggins or Eric Snow and Donyell Marshall? The Cavs are all about potential, most of it unmet.
The training wheels are off now for Irving, who signed a max extension and will have to make the adjustment from good player on a bad team to producing for a better one. Wiggins looks fantastic in summer league, but he will have a huge learning curve. Tristan Thompson has been solid and maybe that’s the limit for him, but this will a big season for him as he approaches the final year of his rookie deal. Last year’s top pick Anthony Bennett has looked like a different player in Las Vegas and the Cavs need him to contribute in a meaningful way.
All of this changes if GM David Griffin can get Kevin Love, but for now the Cavs have LeBron’ and that gives them a chance of doing something special.
The Return of the King
Washington: Let’s all sing the praises of GM Ernie Grunfeld, who locked up Marcin Gortat early and replaced Trevor Ariza with Paul Pierce. That last year on Gortat’s deal could be painful, but getting Pierce for half the years and a third the money? Brilliant.
Pierce’s per-game numbers have declined along with his minutes, but his rate stats look remarkably similar to his Boston days and he hasn’t lost any of his old-man craftiness. Pierce can still play and he will do wonders for John Wall and Bradley Beal with his playmaking ability, to say nothing of his perimeter shooting and veteran savvy.
the Wizards -- yes, the Wizards -- are legit contenders.
Wall and Beal are everything and they have the talent to become the NBA's signature backcourt for a decade. If Gortat and Nene can stay healthy and Grunfeld can fill out the rest of the roster, the Wizards -- yes, the Wizards -- are legit contenders.
Toronto: The Raptors didn't do anything major this offseason, but by locking up Kyle Lowry, Patrick Patterson and Greivis Vasquez, GM Masai Ujiri has brought stability to a franchise that has always existed in a state of nervous unrest. The Raps went 41-21 after Dec. 10 and came within a harrowing Game 7 of advancing to the second round for only the second time in team history.
Ujiri did swing for the fences in the draft, tabbing Brazilian mystery man Bruno Caboclo, and the early returns are promising. Veteran scorer Lou Williams should help give the bench unit some needed-punch. But the Raps improvement will have to come internally from third-year players Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross, along with DeMar DeRozan who will turn 25 later this summer.
Toronto Turnaround
This is a good team, the question is: How much better can they get?
Charlotte: Last year’s surprise team took a big swing at trying to land Gordon Hayward. When that fell through, GM Rich Cho went after veteran shooter Marvin Williams on a short-term deal and then made a stealth play for Lance Stephenson. Both players will help.
Williams shores up Charlotte’s biggest weakness and Stephenson will give them a much-needed second ballhandler to go with Kemba Walker. Stephenson, Walker and Al Jefferson make up a solid big three and like the Raptors, there’s room for improvement from the young core including Cody Zeller, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and rookie Noah Vonleh.
The Bobcats won seven games during the lockout season. The Hornets are a long way from there and trending in the right direction.
THE PLAYOFF TEAMS
Brooklyn: The Nets are finally acting like a responsible team, which must make Silver and the other owners happy. They were out of the running on Shaun Livingston, and didn't seek to match Pierce's deal with the Wizards. That lowers the tax bill significantly, but also takes two good rotation players out of the lineup.
Still, the Nets will be solid as long as Deron Williams and Joe Johnson stay productive and Brook Lopez returns from injury. If Kevin Garnett can give them anything, then they'll be just good enough to make the playoffs and cause someone a problem in the first round. Billy King has filled the holes nicely, albeit quietly, with players like Alan Anderson, Jarrett Jack and Bojan Bogdanovic.
Photo credit: Mike Ehrmann
Atlanta: Before Al Horford went down with a torn pectoral muscle, the Hawks were a .500 team. They should be that again as long as Horford returns to form, but unless Danny Ferry can pull a major move between now and the start of the season they're in the same position they've always been. They're the Hawks.
THE IN BETWEENERS
New York: Decent start by Phil Jackson getting a handful of useful players from the Mavs, but until he's able to clear out the rest of the contract detritus the Knicks are stuck in a state of mediocrity. Melo will keep them competitive and the whole environment should be more conducive to finding a measure of normalcy.
Detroit: Stan Van Gundy's coaching will help make the Pistons resemble an actual team, but there's a lot of issues left to resolve from Monroe to Josh Smith and the offseason signings don't inspire a ton of confidence. Still, there's talent here in Andre Drummond, Pope and Monroe if he returns. The Pistons are a wild card.
THE REBUILDING TEAMS
Boston: The Celtics are in a holding pattern. If they can pull off a Kevin Love trade, which seems unlikely, they will be playoff contenders. If not, Danny Ainge has three more young players to add to the rebuilding project and nine first rounders over the next five seasons.
As for a Rondo trade, the belief here is as it’s always been. Ainge would move Rondo only if he felt like it made his team significantly better in the long run. There’s no real urgency to accelerate a rebuilding process when he’ll have as much as $40 million coming off the books next season in addition to all those picks.
The Rondo Situation
Milwaukee: Finally, some light. A young core of Jabari Parker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brandon Knight and John Henson sure seems like fun. If new coach Jason Kidd can get Larry Sanders back on track, then the Bucks could be a lot better sooner rather than later.
Now, about those bad contracts ...
Orlando: This is Year Three of Rob Hennigan’s rebuilding project and he now has eight players on rookie contracts. The Ben Gordon signing was the weirdest of the summer so far, but Channing Frye will help immensely. What Hennigan lacks right now is a true difference-maker among his collection of young players.
Philadelphia: Man, that Nerlens Noel sure is something.
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