The Dion Waiters trade and Brook Lopez rumors shows one thing very clearly: the Oklahoma City Thunder are desperate.
The Thunder might actually miss the playoffs
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a bigger hole than most people think. Time is running out for them to pull it together.
Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
It was assumed the Thunder would be fine once Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned from their early season injuries that essentially delayed the start of their seasons until December, but so far, that hasn't been the case. Every red, flashing siren in the state of Oklahoma was set off Thursday when Houston blew out the Thunder, 112-101, holding a double-digit lead for the entirety of the second half despite 40 minutes from Durant and 38 from Westbrook.
The Thunder sit at 18-20, tied with Denver for the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference. Ahead of them Phoenix (23-18) and New Orleans (19-19), meaning Oklahoma City has three and a half games to make up to retake the No. 8 seed in the West.
Right now, the Thunder are on target to do that -- but just barely. After floundering to a 4-12 start to the season, Westbrook returned Nov. 28 and Durant came back the next game. The Thunder are 14-8 since, but Durant missed six more games in the middle of that stretch due to a severely sprained ankle. With both him and Westbrook in the lineup, the Thunder are 10-5.
That’s the minimum pace they have to keep up -- a 66.7 winning percentage. That’s 29 wins in their final 44 game and a 47-35 record to finish the season. If Phoenix maintains their 56.1 winning percentage, they’ll finish a game short of that mark at 46-36, allowing Oklahoma City to sneak into the playoffs by the narrowest of margins.
But for this plan to work, Phoenix can't get any better. Unfortunately, the Suns recently upgraded their lineup by trading for Brandan Wright and if they pick up their pace, even if only by a win or two, the Thunder's task just gets more and more difficult.
| Oklahoma City would have to go... | to finish... |
| 29-15 | with 47 wins |
| 32-12 | with 50 wins |
| 35-9 | with 53 wins |
Who has the more favorable schedule?
The Suns are quickly approaching a barbaric eight-game stretch. After two home games against the Timberwolves and the Lakers, Phoenix closes the month against six playoff teams and plays two more to begin February.
| Jan. 21 | vs Portland |
| Jan. 23 | vs Houston |
| Jan. 25 | vs LA Clippers |
| Jan. 28 | vs Washington |
| Jan. 30 | vs Chicago |
| Jan. 31 | at Golden State |
| Feb. 2 | vs Memphis |
| Feb. 5 | at Portland |
Six of the eight are home games and there’s only one back-to-back, but those eight teams have a combined 72.6 winning percentage. This stretch would test anyone, and Oklahoma City has to be watching carefully in hopes of making up some ground.
The Thunder have a slight edge in April when they might be looking to make up one more game. They finish their season with only one playoff team in their final four games. The end of Phoenix’s season includes road games in Atlanta, Dallas, New Orleans and San Antonio before a regular season finale against the Clippers.
It’s important to note that Oklahoma City currently holds a 2-0 head-to-head record against the Suns -- and thus, the tiebreaker -- with two more matchups left to play on Feb. 26 and March 29.
If the Thunder make the playoffs, what then?
Even with their injuries, Westbrook and Durant are both averaging 31 minutes a game this season, a number that will surely rise steadily throughout the rest of the season. Maybe they’ll respond even better with their back against the wall, but there’s no doubt that piles on added stress for everyone involved.
If Oklahoma City does make the playoffs, it’ll do so by finding their devastating two-way attack. That’d make them an unfortunate first-round matchup for Golden State or another top West team. But without the benefits of extra rest and home-court advantage, it’d be hard to imagine a definitive title run. Even a Western Conference Finals run seems ambitious.
The Thunder have to get it together, and soon. The hopes of a serious playoff run -- or even making the playoffs at all -- shrinks with every loss.
★★★
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