The Pelicans' terrible injury luck continued this week with the news that Tyreke Evans will miss six-to-eight weeks after having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. It's the second such procedure he's had on that knee in the past six months.
Tyreke Evans’ injury could derail the Pelicans
The Pelicans were already down a couple of important players and now have lost their best shot creator for two months.
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Evans is the fifth New Orleans player to go down in the summer after Quincy Pondexter, Norris Cole, Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca all suffered various health issues that kept them out of preseason and could limit them early in the season.
This is not just another setback for New Orleans, though. Unlike the others, Evans is one of the team’s core players, arguably their best perimeter scorer and a heady playmaker. Not having him available until late December could be a huge blow for the Pelicans’ playoff hopes.
No one on the roster can replace what Evans does
Evans’ individual numbers don’t look special. In fact, they paint him as an inefficient player not suited for modern offenses that demand three-point range from wings.
Don't let that ugly shot chart fool you. The Pelicans' offense died without Evans' dribble penetration last season, averaging over six fewer points per 100 possessions when he was on the bench. He led the league in drives to the basket with 940 over 79 games and on average he produced 12.8 points per game for his team with those drives -- either by scoring or assisting. That was the fifth best mark in the league, better than the numbers posted by LeBron James and Russell Westbrook, among others.
Evans isn’t the best finisher, but even when he doesn’t score himself he makes the defense collapse and finds open teammates.
Evans’ offensive impact at the team level was huge and will be extremely hard to make up for.
Evans' injury puts pressure on Jrue Holiday
The last two years have been a nightmare for Jrue Holiday. He's been very productive when he's been on the court but has dealt with injuries that threatened to derail his career. The 76ers were fined $3 million for not disclosing a stress fracture in his right leg when they traded him, an injury that has kept him off the court for 90 games over the past two seasons.
With that kind of injury history, the Pelicans’ plan to bring him along slowly seems wise. The coaching staff announced that he would be restricted to 10 minutes per game during preseason and 15 minutes per game until January, while sitting out back-to-backs. They adhered to those parameters closely for the first four games of preseason before giving him 15 minutes in each of the last two.
Evans' ability to run the offense was one of the reasons the Pelicans could afford to wait for Holiday. Now that he won't be available, the temptation to throw caution out the window will be high if Holiday does well early in the season, especially if the team struggles. He's the only one who can come close to replicating what Evans brings to the team, as the other options -- Nate Robinson and Bo McCalebb -- are not rotation-level players.
New coach Alvin Gentry has gone out of his way to say he will be patient and cautious with Holiday. Evans’ injury will test that commitment.
The schedule doesn’t do the Pelicans any favors
Before the New Year, the Pelicans will play 32 games. They will face contenders 10 times (the Warriors, Rockets and Clippers twice, the Cavaliers, the Spurs, the Grizzlies and the Thunder once), direct competitors for a spot in the playoffs seven times (the Mavericks and Jazz twice and the Suns three times) and Eastern playoff teams six times (the Hawks twice, the Raptors, the Wizards, the Celtics and the Bulls once). That means only nine of their first 32 games can be considered easy.
Things get better around January, when Evans should be back and Holiday will be without restrictions. Provided there are no further setbacks, the team will be whole by then. The problem is New Orleans could have a lot of losses when that happens.
In the service of simplicity let’s say they win all their easy games, lose them all against contenders and split the games with their direct opponents and Eastern playoff teams. If that happens, they will be 16-16 as 2016 arrives. A couple of unexpected losses and things would get more dire.
Over the past five years the No. 8 seed in the West has won on average 44 games. They would have to win 28 of their next 50 games to reach that level, a .560 win rate. That’s doable for a team that boasted a .549 win percentage last season but the margin of error is very slim.
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This is supposed to be the season in which Anthony Davis takes the next step and carries the Pelicans to the next level with him. Unfortunately, injuries might derail the team's prospects. They could have survived some of the other absences but making up for Tyreke Evans' production will be extremely hard to do, especially with a tough schedule to start the year and Jrue Holiday not all the way back yet.
Hopefully Alvin Gentry finds a way because the playoffs without The Brow just won’t be as fun.
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