The Cleveland Cavaliers are the most talented team in the Eastern Conference and the heavy favorite to return to the NBA Finals. This is indisputable.
If the Cavaliers start slowly because of injuries, don’t worry. They’ll be fine
Cleveland will probably get off to a rough start as their key players recover from injury, but the East offers them one hell of a cushion.
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It’s also why there should be little to no concern if the Cavs get off to a sluggish start this season. Unless, of course, there are some devastating long-term injuries in the process. As good as Cleveland will likely be, the roster is still currently in flux due to injuries and one high-profile contract dispute that just ended.
It all starts with LeBron James. While he's ready to go for the opener against the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday night, his lingering back issues (he had to receive an injection during the preseason) and advancing age will cause him to pace himself early in the season. James has a lot of miles on that body, and going all out in the first half of the year simply isn't necessary for him.
That wouldn't matter quite as much if Kyrie Irving was around to pick up the slack, but the point guard is still recovering from the knee injury he suffered in the Finals. It's unknown when Irving will return to the court, but it's safe to assume the Cavaliers will treat his recovery with the utmost precaution, even if that means a lot of Mo Williams and Matthew Dellavedova early on.
The presence of a third star in Kevin Love mitigates this issue somewhat, but Love himself just returned from his own shoulder surgery, and it'll take some time for him to return to his best form. That's unfortunate because head coach David Blatt is still trying to figure out the optimal deployment of Love after a down season in his first in Cleveland.
There are injury concerns across the rest of the roster as well. Ace perimeter defender Iman Shumpert tore a muscle in his wrist before training camp and is out another two months. Starting center Timofey Mozgov is working his way into shape after offseason knee surgery. Backup big man Anderson Varejao is seemingly always hurt and is currently coming off one of the worst injuries in the sport, a torn Achilles.
And then there's that high-profile holdout. Tristan Thompson finally agreed to a five-year, $82 million deal last week, but he missed most of camp and didn't appear in a single preseason game. While he's healthy, he'll need some time to get up to speed. All this is to say the Cavaliers won't be a well-oiled machine right away.
The good news is that after a rough first week, the November schedule is quite forgiving, so Cleveland might be able to overcome its issues. Even if they don't, it likely doesn't matter long term. We saw the Cavaliers start 19-20 last year, only to finish 53-29 and make the Finals without Love, a fully healthy Irving or home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference. The Atlanta Hawks had the latter last season, but they failed to take advantage of it when they were swept by Cleveland in the Conference Finals.
With the Cavaliers possibly in line to struggle early on, the Hawks are a part of a group of second-tier East teams that’ll look to get a head start on Cleveland in an attempt to wrestle away home court and give themselves whatever advantage over the Cavaliers they can get.
Atlanta will almost certainly take a step back after winning 60 games last year, especially after losing DeMarre Carroll in free agency to the Toronto Raptors. But the addition of Tiago Splitter will help shore up some deficiencies on the boards, and the core of Al Horford, Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver remains formidable.
The Cavaliers’ opening-night opponent, the Bulls, are a familiar foe for James, who’s beaten Chicago four times in the postseason. The Bulls have arguably the highest ceiling of any of Cleveland’s chief challengers, but they have their own injury concerns with key players and they may not get off to the best start as they get used to a new system under first-time NBA head coach Fred Hoiberg.
James's old team in Miami is loaded with talent, but having to rely on Dwyane Wade's creaky knees isn't ideal, and it remains to be seen what kind of level Chris Bosh returns to after his health scare with blood clots last season. Simply put, this is a volatile group with a wide variance of possible results.
The Raptors, Washington Wizards, Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics are other teams to watch out for in the East, but they all have their own major questions. Can the Raptors play enough defense? Will the Wizards continue to embrace small ball without losing their defensive identity? Do the Bucks have enough shooting? Can the Celtics live up to all the optimistic analytic projections despite having no go-to star player?
These are all teams that could catch lightning in a bottle and put together a strong season that may drop the Cavaliers down a peg or two in the East standings if things go poorly for them early on.
But ultimately, as long as Cleveland is mostly healthy and clicking heading into the postseason, it won’t matter what happens in November.
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