On the surface, the transition from Tom Thibodeau to Fred Hoiberg has been seamless for the Chicago Bulls. They are 7-3 after a thrilling win over the Pacers, putting them in second place in the East and fourth in the entire NBA.
The Bulls haven’t been as good as their record suggests
Chicago’s 7-3 record is impressive, but an easy schedule has masked some problems.
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Peel back the layers, and the road is bumpier. The fact that the Bulls are 7-3 with a new coach and without glue guy Mike Dunleavy is undoubtedly a positive, but the overall picture shows a mediocre team with a lot of problems to sort through. While the Bulls are second in the East and fourth in the NBA, their net rating places them seventh in the East and 13th in the entire league, per NBA.com.
Squeaking by a short-handed Pacers squad without George Hill, Rodney Stuckey and Myles Turner illustrates the Bulls' fragility. They've enjoyed a favorable early-season schedule that's featured six of 10 games at home and two road games against the lowly Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers. Chicago deserves credit for actually winning these games, but the schedule has enabled them to rack up an impressive record despite some noticeable problems.
The offense isn’t working
One of the many reasons Thibodeau was let go was because his offense often became too predictable and stagnant. Hoiberg promised a more up-tempo attack that would theoretically take advantage of the talent on the roster. That has not come to pass yet.
Chicago has certainly been playing faster in the early going. The 2014-15 Bulls averaged 95.35 possessions per game, which was 21st in the league, per NBA.com. They're up to 100.61 this year, 12th-fastest in the league and actually just shy of the Golden State Warriors' league-leading mark last year.
But the uptick in pace hasn’t resulted in a better offense. The Bulls were efficient last season despite playing slow, averaging nearly 105 points per 100 possessions last year. They’ve been the opposite this year, scoring just 98 points per 100 possessions despite an improvement in three-point shooting.
The Bulls’ offense has occasionally looked like the free-flowing, uptempo beauty that was expected. Usually, though, it’s been the stagnant mess that people became accustomed to seeing in the Thibs era. An adjustment period is understandable as the players get comfortable in their new roles, but most didn’t expect this large a drop in offensive efficiency even at the start.
Simply making more shots will help improve the offensive rating. The Bulls are only hitting 43 percent of their field goal attempts on the season, which is in the bottom third of the league.
But so will unlocking Nikola Mirotic’s potential. Mirotic should be an ideal “playmaking” power forward that can stretch the floor and make things happen off the dribble, but he’s struggled mightily after a hot start and has been yanked earlier in games. He’s shooting poorly, not getting to the free throw line at the same rate as last year and not doing much facilitating.
Giving Mirotic more freedom and responsibility on offense may exacerbate his bad habits, but it could also mean big things for the Bulls’ offense if he finds a groove.
The player rotations still aren’t set
Hoiberg has said multiple times that he may not settle on set lineups for a while. Tony Snell and Doug McDermott have both started at small forward and the backup point guard situation is ever-changing, but the most upheaval has occurred up front.
The early returns say the Bulls' two most-used big man combinations -- Pau Gasol with Mirotic, Joakim Noah with Taj Gibson -- have merely been average. The Gasol/Noah duo worked poorly last year and has been good, but not great, in limited minutes this season. Gasol and Gibson have been a disaster together. The Gibson/Mirotic and Noah/Mirotic pairings have been successful, but those duos have only played 56 combined minutes.
If the goal is to pair an offensive-minded player with a defensive-minded one, the two duos that make sense are Gasol/Gibson and Mirotic/Noah. Gasol and Gibson were solid together last year, so maybe this year’s struggles will be overcome. The Mirotic/Noah combination has been successful both seasons, and playing a rim protecting center like Noah alongside a stretch 4 like Mirotic seems like an optimal use of their skills.
If the Bulls can figure out the right combinations, it’d free up the front office to trade a big man for some guard help. But the Bulls can’t make that move until they pick a pairing and settle on it.
The Derrick Rose problem
Rose has shown flashes of being that elite player he once was, particularly in a signature win over the Thunder. Other times, he’s been lethargic and wildly inefficient. Playing with double vision hasn’t helped, but he’s struggled with his shot since returning from injury last year.
But while Rose is shooting just 38 percent overall and 15 percent from three, his shot chart reveals some promising trends:
He’s taking a lot of shots around the basket, and those green zones on the sides of each basket are via a bank shot that’s become almost automatic for him. The long jumpers have obviously been a mess, but he did actually knock down two three-pointers against Indiana.
Rose has also shown nice progress as a facilitator. His assist percentage is the highest it’s been since 2011-12, while his turnover percentage is the lowest since that year. He’s developed a nice rapport with Gasol running pick-and-rolls, and Rose/Jimmy Butler pick-and-rolls can be deadly as well.
Still, the Bulls need Rose to be better than he has been in order to win a championship. Bulls fans would like to think his poor finishing around the rim will get better, but he clearly lacks the elite explosiveness that once helped him finish easily among the trees. He’s also dealing with an ankle injury, and even if it’s minor, that doesn’t help.
Rose is also still searching for ideal chemistry with Butler. Having two primary ball handlers is a big plus, especially late in games, but the Bulls need to find a way to optimize the two. The pick-and-rolls are a good start, but there have been some issues when Rose plays off the ball because defenders don’t respect his outside shot. If Rose can develop into a better off-the-ball threat, that will go a long way in making this pairing work at a high level.
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The Bulls’ annual Circus road trip begins Wednesday in Phoenix, and while this iteration is only four games, it’ll provide some good tests for Chicago. The defending champion Warriors are on the docket Friday.
If the Bulls struggle, the positive early vibes will fade away nice early record. After all, the roster is basically the same as last year’s, only there’s a new coach in place.
However, there’s also reason for optimism. Chicago IS 7-3 despite its own issues, and it’s hard to imagine the offense continuing to struggle like it has given the coach and the talent in place. The defense has been better than expected, but even if that regresses, significant improvement on offense can mitigate that.
The Bulls are still figuring things out. If they do, the NBA has another title contender.
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