That streak still seems like it ended just a few days ago. You know, the one during which the Hawks won 19 games in a row, catapulted to the top of the Eastern Conference and NBA standings and became the darlings of the league. Atlanta won those 19 games by an average margin of 11.4 points, and four Hawks earned trips to the All-Star Game.
The Hawks have been an average team recently. Does that matter?
Since winning 19 in a row, Atlanta has fallen back to Earth. Why have the Hawks regressed and how much of a problem is their regression in the grand scheme of things?
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At one point in early February, Atlanta had won an incredible 35 out of 38 games. That stretch, combined with the Cavaliers' slow start and the rest of the East playing like the East, allowed the Hawks to essentially lock up the conference's No. 1 seed before All Star weekend.
Since the streak, though, Atlanta has struggled. They're just 13-9 since and have dropped five of their last nine games, including a 114-95 beatdown Sunday at home to the Spurs.
When that 19-game win streak ended, the Hawks were 40-9. At that point they were sporting an offense that was scoring 107.4 points per 100 possessions, the fifth-best number in the league. Since then, that number has dropped to 103.5. The defense’s allowance has also risen, from 100 to 102.6.
What’s going on here? Should any of this be of concern? Or, can it be attributed to taking the foot off the gas pedal in order to gear up for what should be a long postseason run?
Well, let’s take a look (all numbers via NBA.com).
The starting lineup is no longer unstoppable
Here's the five-man group that Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer has given the most minutes to this year: Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap and Al Horford. Through the team's first 49 games, that unit bulldozed the league. Teague got into the paint at will while preventing the man he was guarding from doing the same. Korver made defenses dizzy by running around. Horford controlled the game from the high post and locked down the paint. Carroll shut down whoever he was tasked with guarding. Millsap did a little bit of everything.
Through those 49 games, that group as a whole scored 111.5 points per 100 possessions and only allowed 101.3. For the math-challenged among us, that’s a net rating of +10.2.
Since then, though, everything has slowed down. The offensive rating has dropped to 107 and the defensive rating has shot up to 105.9. The net rating has shrunk to just +1.1, which is fairly average.
The offensive dropoff could be the result of some sticky hands. The amount of assists the group is recording per 100 possessions has fallen from 23 to 19.6. The effective field goal percentage has also gone down, from 56 to 52.
It’s harder to say what’s going on defensively. In their first 49 games, this five-man lineup allowed opponents to shoot 45 percent from the field. In their last 21, that number is 47 percent. Not exactly a major difference. More three-pointers are being made against them, so perhaps it’s that, combined with some minor steps in the wrong direction every now and then.
It’s normal for that to happen when a team has a commanding lead at the top of the conference. But the play of Atlanta’s starting five is definitely something worth monitoring.
Jeff Teague is no longer playing like a star
It might not be fair to place all the blame on Teague, but there are some numbers that jump off the page when you try to find out why this group has been struggling. Over their last 21 games, the Hawks are scoring 103.3 points per 100 possessions when Teague plays. When they were 40-9 that number was 110.5.
The story has been similar on defense. Over this same recent stretch, Atlanta is allowing opponents to score 104.7 points per 100 possessions when Teague is on the court. That’s worse than they are when he sits.
Again, it’s hard to say exactly what’s going on. Teague’s regular stats haven’t changed much: he was averaging 16.8 points and 7.5 assists while shooting 46 percent from the field in the Hawks’ first 49 games this year and he’s averaging 15.2, 5.7 assists and 45 percent from the field since. That’s not a major difference.
But something clearly is going on. A few weeks ago, Teague was playing as well as nearly every point guard in the league. Now, the Hawks are a worse team when he’s on the court.
Injuries
There’s been nothing major here, but for a team like Atlanta that has a system built around continuity and familiarity, even injuries to minor players throw a wrench into the operation.
Reserve forward Thabo Sefolosha has been out since late January with a strained calf. Backup power forward Mike Scott has also now missed six games with a toe injury and Kyle Korver recently missed three games after having his face smashed in.
Korver obviously is the biggest name there, as neither Sefolosha or Scott are stars or even integral parts. But both bring something to the table: Sefolosha is an excellent perimeter defender and Scott is a forward who can step outside and hit a three. Their absence has likely played a role in Atlanta’s recent mini-swoon.
Korver, on the other hand, is essential to what the Hawks do, so it should come as no surprise that Atlanta dropped two of the games he missed. Korver is also the lone member of that starting group mentioned above whose net rating hasn’t fallen to around +1 or less since the 19-game win streak came to an end. It’s not the +12 it was before, but at +3.7 Korver is still clearly making the Hawks a better team.
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