The San Antonio Spurs entered this season as defending champions, and with the same core that dominated last year. Unfortunately, injuries derailed their title defense early, causing them to fall in the standings and preventing them from looking like a contender for the first few months. The Warriors took the West by storm and the Spur became an afterthought.
3 reasons why the Spurs are still NBA title contenders
After a slow start of the season, the Spurs are peaking at the right time and could be a factor in the West playoffs.
For the past 15 games, however, San Antonio has been showing signs of still being the team that cruised through the 2013-14 playoffs. They’ve won 12 and and had double-digit leads in all 15 before lapses in focus cost them three wins. During that span the Spurs have had the highest net rating in the league, with only the Warriors coming close to matching it. Simply put, they have been the best team in the league in March, right as the playoffs are approaching.
So how did they find their bearings?
Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard are finally in game shape
Parker injured his hamstring on Dec. 5 and for the next three months never looked like himself. Since the injury and until March he averaged a shade under 12 points per game on 40 percent shooting. Those numbers were not only bad compared to his career stats but also bear no semblance to the ones he put on November. It was obvious Parker was hurting but it wasn’t clear how long it would take him to return to his level. Two months turned out to be the answer, as he’s averaging over 18 points on 56 percent shooting, along with five assists per game in March.
Something similar happened to Kawhi Leonard, who on top of the eye infection during preseason, also suffered a hand injury in December. For the next two months he struggled until breaking out in March. Leonard is resembling the player who won finals MVP, averaging almost 19 points on 51 percent shooting, seven rebounds and almost three steals a game. He’s single-handedly fueling the Spurs’ four-point increase in fastbreak points with the live-ball turnovers he creates, while remaining a stellar defender who doesn’t gamble.
The three-pointers are falling
The Spurs are averaging more passes and more distance covered per game this season as compared to last, according to the league’s player tracking stats. That means that all that ball and player movement from last season was still there this year. The problem was the shots that resulted from it were not falling, especially from outside. On three-point shots that are considered open (no defender within 4-6 feet of the shooter) the Spurs are shooting 35 percent this season, down from 40 percent from last year. On three-pointers considered wide open (closest defender over six feet away from the shooter) the Spurs are averaging 40 percent, down for 41 percent lasts season.
Several Spurs have shot poorly this season despite not being guarded, which is surprising since the team boasts very good marksmen and led the league in three-point shooting percentage last year. In March those numbers are starting to normalize. They are shooting 36 percent on open three-pointers and an excellent 45 percent on wide open threes. If Mills regains his shooting touch and Diaw hits some of the shots the defense dares him to take, those numbers could climb further. The Spurs won’t shoot 40 percent like they did last year but are finally starting to punish teams who leave someone open.
The role players have stepped up
Parker, Leonard and Duncan are the backbone of the starting lineup. Around them, Gregg Popovich likes to use low usage role players who can ease the burden of the stars. Danny Green opens up room for the perimeter playmakers by spacing the floor while Tiago Splitter defends the other team's best big man and sets screens so that Duncan doesn't have to. Off the bench, Boris Diaw is tasked with helping Manu Ginobili create scoring opportunities for others. Unsurprisingly, with the stars underperforming, so did the role players.
Popovich went as far as bringing Splitter off the bench and severely reducing Diaw’s minutes, while looking for answers elsewhere but nothing worked. As soon as he reinserted Splitter back into the starting lineup, however, he started playing as well as he ever has on a Spurs jersey, masking Duncan’s declining numbers in March. Green has started sinking those open threes with regularity, giving Parker more room to work with. And Diaw has recently looked to attack instead of settle for jump shots, which creates looks for others when the defense collapses. No one that gets consistent minutes is hurting the team anymore.
As a result of those three factors, the Spurs are back to being one of the best teams in the league. No one has played as well as they have recently and were it not for a Kyrie Irving explosion and an unbelievable overtime loss to the Knicks, San Antonio would be 14-1 in the last 15. The Warriors are still the favorite and the West is so competitive that a bad night could cost a team a series, so it's impossible to know how far the Spurs can go. Just don't be surprised if they somehow knock off someone seeded higher than them.
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