Jordan Clarkson's buzzer-beater may have given the Los Angeles Lakers a 113-111 overtime victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday, but it was a damaging win in the grand scheme of things. That's because instead of being just a game better in the standings than the Sixers, the third-worst team in the NBA, the Lakers are three games better and also closer to potentially passing up the Orlando Magic in the standings to become the fifth-worst team in the league.
Jordan Clarkson’s buzzer-beater really was terrible for the Lakers’ tanking efforts
There’s a reason Lakers fans were freaking out. Here’s how that victory over the 76ers costs L.A.
This is important because Los Angeles only keeps its first-round pick in 2015 if it falls in the top five. Having the fifth-worst record makes the odds of keeping that pick worse, so this win really did hurt. You can now see why Lakers fans were so upset about the victory.
Where the Lakers stand
The Lakers' tank efforts were going quite well earlier in March after five straight losses to open the month. One lonely win was followed by four more losses, and Los Angeles sat at 17-50 on March 19. The Lakers were the fourth-worst team in the NBA, only 1.5 games better than the Sixers and 2.5 games worse than the Orlando Magic, the fifth-worst team in the NBA.
Now, Los Angeles is still the fourth-worst team at 20-53, but three games better than Philadelphia (18-57) and only 1.5 games worse than Orlando, who's 22-52. This leaves the Lakers in danger of falling to that fifth-worst mark, which isn't ideal for their chances of keeping their pick. The Sacramento Kings have the sixth-worst record at 26-47, so there's no danger of the Kings falling below Los Angeles.
The lottery odds
With the fourth-worst record in the NBA, the Lakers currently have an 11.9-percent chance of earning the top pick and 82.8-percent chance of that pick staying in the top five.
But if Los Angeles drops to the fifth-worst record, there’s only an 8.8-percent chance of earning the top pick and a 55.3-percent chance of the pick staying in the top five. There’s a significant difference between the two slots, so getting no better than fourth-worst in the league is important.
If the Lakers somehow dropped below the Sixers to the third-worst record, there would be a 15.6-percent chance of earning the top pick and a 96 percent of sticking in the top five. However, the three-game gap (four in the loss column) makes that unlikely, again showing why the victory on Monday night was no victory at all.
The rest of the way
The Lakers have nine games left: Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Clippers, Clippers, @Nuggets, Timberwolves, Mavericks, @ Kings, Kings.
That's five games out of nine against winning teams in the West, and that road game in Denver is the second of a back-to-back. Sacramento has been playing better of late, but DeMarcus Cousins might be done for the season and Rudy Gay just suffered a concussion. If we're to predict a record based on the games Los Angeles should win, there's maybe two or three wins left on the schedule. But you never know what could happen.
That’s just three games out of eight against teams with winning records, although Milwaukee, Miami and Brooklyn are all jockeying for playoff position. Still, Orlando should be able to win a game or two at the very least over this remaining stretch.
If the Magic can finish out the year 2-6 or better, the Lakers should be safe in the fourth-worst spot as long as they lose all the games they’re supposed to during this final stretch. But if Orlando wins one or zero and/or Los Angeles pulls off an upset or two, it’ll be time to sweat.
Losing that draft pick after all the Lakers have gone through this year would be an utter disaster, because that roster needs an infusion of elite young talent. Lakers fans must root for the team to stay where they are right now or somehow fall below Philadelphia, which was made all the more difficult after Monday night.
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