So here we are. The last edition of the 2014-15 NBA MVP Power Rankings. It has been a wild ride throughout this regular season, with a host of candidates making legitimate cases for the award and nobody separating themselves from the pack. It has really been one of the most exciting races in years.
Why Stephen Curry is (barely) our NBA MVP pick
Deciding between Stephen Curry and James Harden is incredibly difficult. Here’s why we chose the Golden State Warriors’ star.
Over the past few weeks, it became a two-horse race between James Harden and Stephen Curry. Harden was on top of these rankings for most of the second half and he had a chance to make not one, but two major statements in the last week to solidify himself as my pick for MVP.
Instead, Harden stumbled against the Spurs, leaving Curry free to make a final charge for MVP. That’s why I’ve changed my pick on my final hypothetical ballot.
1. Stephen Curry (Last week: 2)
I agonized over this decision for far longer than I should have, and I badly wanted to stick to my guns and pick Harden. However, Curry, who has been phenomenal all year for one of the most dominant teams in recent memory, turned up the heat after the All-Star break, while Harden had two costly slip-ups against the Spurs in the last week. In a race that's almost too close to call, that final test made me sway my vote in the other direction.
Since the break, Curry has put up nearly 25 points and eight assists per game while shooting 50 percent from the field overall and just under 52 percent from long range. The barrage from deep helped him break his own record for three-pointers in a season during a masterful performance against Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers last Thursday:
Curry has been a treat to watch all season. He's running the show for a Warriors squad that could win 67 games and finish with a double-digit average point differential, making highlight reel plays with ease on a nightly basis. Not only has he been dynamite offensively, but he has also improved his defense, which is part of the reason why Golden State will finish the year as the top-ranked defense in terms of efficiency.
One argument against Curry is that he plays with a great team around him, but while it's true that he has Klay Thompson as an All-Star running mate in the backcourt and potential Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green up front, the on/off court numbers for Curry are quite staggering.
Curry has an on-court net rating of nearly 17 points per 100 possessions, the best mark on Golden State, per NBA.com. With Curry on the bench, the Warriors have a Blutarsky-esque rating of zero. The offense is a tick over 14 points per 100 possessions worse. That drastic difference on such a loaded team is a testament to his greatness and how much effect he has on a game.
Considering Curry's on/off numbers, it's no surprise that he's first in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus stat. He's also first in Win Shares per 48 Minutes, Offensive Box Plus/Minus and VORP, per Basketball-Reference.com. His PER is a shade over 28 and third in the NBA behind only Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook.
All in all, Curry gets recognized for a statistically-dominant season on a statistically-dominant team that has been merely average when he’s not in the game. His final push down the stretch was just enough to edge him over Harden, who faltered in a few key games and also lost to the Warriors all four times this season.
2. James Harden (Last week: 1)
I’ll admit it seems unfair to let a couple bad games at the end of the year dictate a pick for who wins a season-long award, but Harden’s clunkers against the Spurs really came at an inopportune time.
With a chance to grab control of the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, Harden averaged 19 points while shooting 11-of-34 from the field in two consecutive losses to San Antonio. In the first game, he was a team-worst -26. In the second, he shot 5-of-19 and was stuffed at the rim by Tim Duncan in the final seconds of a one-point loss.
But rather than dwell on the negatives, let’s now focus on Harden’s amazing season and why he was considered the front-runner for such a long time.
It's because of Harden that Houston even has a shot at the No. 2 seed in the loaded West despite a litany of injuries to key players. Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones have only combined to play in 72 games this season. Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas are both out for the year. There have been a number of moving pieces on the roster, with Josh Smith, Corey Brewer and Pablo Prigioni all being acquired in-season.
Harden just became the first player ever to hit 200 three-pointers and 700 free throws in an entire season, and he has made more free throws than the next closest player has attempted. He’s first in Offensive Plus-Minus, WAR and Win Shares, and fifth in PER.
Like Curry, the on/off splits show just how much Harden means to his team’s offense. The Rockets have been elite offensively with Harden on the floor this year and a train wreck with him on the bench. The offensive rating dip of 13.6 when Harden hits the bench is just a tad lower than the 14.1 drop when Curry is on the bench.
Harden has had a marvelous season, but those poor efforts against the Spurs plus several subpar efforts in the blowout losses to the Warriors were just too much to overcome in this tight race. However, if Harden actually wins the real-life award, you’ll get little argument from me.
SB Nation presents: James Harden’s most jaw-dropping moments
3. Russell Westbrook (Last week: 3)
The Thunder might not even make the playoffs, although a win over the Timberwolves and a Pelicans loss to the Spurs gets Oklahoma City in. But even if the Thunder miss the playoffs, I'd like to recognize Westbrook for his superhuman efforts this season with Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka missing so much time.
Westbrook might not be the most efficient player, but Oklahoma City’s offense has performed at elite levels with him on the court this season and has been dreadful with him on the bench. He’s a triple-double machine, leading the NBA by far with 11 of them on the year. His barely sub-29 PER is third in the league.
The way it stands now, Westbrook would join Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Oscar Robertson as the only players ever to average 28 points, eight assists and seven rebounds in a season, per Basketball-Reference.com. That's impressive company.
4. Chris Paul (Last week: 6)
Paul has led the Clippers to a top-ranked offense despite missing Blake Griffin for 15 games and having no viable bench. CP3 hasn't missed a game and has Los Angeles in position to grab the No. 3 seed in the West, and possibly the No. 2 seed if things break right.
Paul was really good throughout the beginning of the year, but his game reached new levels once Griffin went down and has kept going even with him back. The Point God is averaging 22 points and 11 assists since the All-Star break while shooting 52 percent from the field, 42 percent from three-point range and 93 percent from the free-throw line.
This has been Paul’s finest season with the Clippers and his best year since his dynamite 2008-09 campaign in New Orleans. His performance has flown under the radar, but it shouldn’t.
5. Anthony Davis (Last week: 5)
As mentioned earlier, there’s a good chance the Pelicans don’t even make the postseason. But I don’t really care, because Davis has led a battered team to the brink of the playoffs while putting up historic numbers in the process. All at the ripe age of 22, I might add.
Davis has a league-best PER of over 31, and only Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan and LeBron James have ever finished with a PER over 31 in a season.
The scary part is there’s still room for improvement in Davis’s game. As long as he stays relatively healthy, he’ll be in the thick of MVP races for many, many years to come.
SB Nation presents: Anthony Davis is devastating his opponents
6. LeBron James (Last week: 4)
Not having LeBron on the hypothetical ballot feels absurd, because he's still the best player in the world and has been instrumental in the Cavaliers' turnaround. Cleveland has been dominant with James on the court and a straight up bad team with him on the bench.
But one of these guys has to fall outside the top five, and I’m dropping James because of the uninspiring start out of the gate and the fact that his overall efficiency has dipped fairly significantly from the last few years.
Yes, the impact is still there and LeBron’s usage is higher than it ever was in Miami, but I can’t ignore some of the negatives in a race this tight. This is also admittedly a case of “voter fatigue.” I really wanted to recognize the accomplishments of the players above him, who are also all deserving of a spot in the top five. This was a brutal call to make, but one I’ll live with.
Next four: Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, John Wall
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