Have the Toronto Raptors fallen apart after hitting a high level as a team, or were they just not that good in the first place? That's the question they need to ask themselves after completing a season that was superficially historic for their franchise, but more muddled beneath the surface.
Toronto Raptors playoff preview: Just how good are these guys?
Are the Raptors the team that raced to first in the East in November, or the team that struggled down the stretch?
Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
For a while, it looked like Toronto, not Atlanta, would step into the East's power vacuum. The Raptors raced to the top of the East standings in November and maintained their pace in December despite DeMar DeRozan's injury. In their first game after the All-Star break, they stormed into the Hawks' arena and blew them out by 25 to move to 37-17.
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But Toronto collapsed down the stretch, going 12-16 to finish the year and only beating one winning team (Houston, without Dwight Howard, Donatas Motiejunas and Terrence Jones). All-Star starter Kyle Lowry wore down and is recovering from a back injury, DeRozan kept flinging errant mid-range jumpers and Jonas Valanciunas failed to develop. The roster looks a lot like last year's, but the feeling is different.
Luckily, the Raptors were gifted a kind playoff draw: A Wizards team they've dominated the last two years, followed by a Hawks team they beat three out of four time. Can they regain their early-season form, or are they just not that good? More importantly, how much should management even weigh the team's postseason result when answering that question?
How they beat you
With an explosive offense featuring shot-making guards, excellent floor spacers and wings that can work inside for free throws. Their ball screen game is difficult to stop. Lowry, Greivis Vasquez and Lou Williams are all threats to pull up from anywhere and are equally good spotting up off each other. They usually get screens from Patrick Patterson or Amir Johnson, both of whom are crafty and turn themselves into threats when they roll to the rim or pop to the perimeter (Patterson's specialty). None of these players are scheme-busters like Stephen Curry, of course, but collectively they can demoralize a defense in five-possession spurts.
The Raptors have added more misdirection and motion into their offense over the years. You wouldn’t have seen something this free-flowing as often in years past.
That shooting opens driving lanes for players like DeRozan, James Johnson and a healthy Lowry to bowl into the lane and force free throws. Both Lowry and DeRozan are in the top 30 in the league in drives per game and they were higher earlier in the year before Lowry wore down and DeRozan fell in love with his mid-range jumper. The shooting in combination with the driving is why Toronto pulled off the rare double of finishing in the top seven in both free-throw rate and turnover percentage. The Clippers were the only other team to be in the top 10 in both categories.
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How you beat them
The Raptors have the worst defensive efficiency of any playoff team, barely beating out the Brooklyn Nets. They were performing at an adequate level earlier in the season, but fell off completely after the All-Star break. Only six teams (all in the lottery) posted a worse defensive efficiency than Toronto from Feb. 18 on.
The warning signs that existed earlier in the year have only gotten worse. Toronto uses an aggressive style that requires trapping the pick and roll, but it doesn't work, particularly when Valanciunas is on the floor. Dwane Casey often sits Valanciunas because of it, which robs Toronto of its best defensive rebounder and rim protector. Teams that force the Raptors to scramble make them look silly.
The Raptors were a top-10 unit last year and started off well this year, so why the drop-off? For one, the turnovers the Raptors were generating in November stopped happening once teams realized what they were doing. The Raptors ranked third in the NBA in opponent turnover ratio on Nov. 30, forcing miscues on 17 percent of their defensive possessions. They’re 18th since.
More generally, the defensive parts aren’t as good. DeRozan isn’t guarding wings with the same vigor, Johnson is 20 percent less mobile, Lowry’s been worn down from his offensive burden and defensive sieves like Vasquez and Williams are playing more often.
Most important player
It’s too bad Amir Johnson’s health and mobility are declining just as we’re finally understanding his value. Johnson toiled in obscurity for years, making bad teams better with bone-crushing screens, crafty passes, well-timed rolls and the rare combination of lateral mobility and vertical rim protection. He reached his zenith 13 months ago, thriving equally as the power forward alongside Valanciunas and as the center alongside Patterson. Think of him like a modern-day Charles Oakley, except not in the New York fishbowl.
But even Johnson at 85 percent capacity is valuable to Toronto. He’s still the pressure release valve in Toronto’s sets, as well as the screener in the primary action to free a shooter. He takes the toughest defensive assignments and is most effective stepping out on the Raptors’ traps. The Raptors shoot and rebound better when Johnson’s on the floor, which is no accident. Whether he’s a center or power forward, he fills in all the gaps.
Will Drake wake up?
Drake has been quieter than expected after an eventful summer that threatened his status as Toronto's global ambassador. You might recall how he floated the idea of Kevin Durant signing with Toronto in 2016 at OVO Fest. That earned the Raptors a $25,000 fine because we can't have a famous person with a useless ceremonial title suggesting a player under contract elsewhere should play for his favorite team.
Perhaps that’ll change in the playoffs. The Raptors have been sleepwalking for months now, but the postseason brings a different kind of energy. Just don’t let Drake announce the starting lineup.
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