Los Angeles Clippers playoff preview: It’s put up or shut up time

Rumors of the Los Angeles Clippers’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. Or maybe just slightly exaggerated. Or maybe they’ll prove not to be exaggerated at all.

It’s tough to say because little has changed with the players or style. It’s still Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. It’s still Doc Rivers, part motivational speaker, part expert tactician and now part general manager. The culture of the organization changed dramatically with Donald Sterling’s ouster, but little of that has directly translated into the on-court product, at least not yet.

Familiarity breeds contempt, and it also has a way of concealing another superlative Clippers regular season. They got off to a rocky start, but have improved every month and enter the postseason with 14 wins in their last 15 games. They have the second-best point differential in the West, the league’s best offense and a defense that’s improved since the all-star break. They’re here because of an MVP-quality year by Paul, a breakout campaign from Jordan, strong play when Griffin was injured and a starting five that’s as good as any in the league. (Let’s not talk about the bench).

None of that matters without a deep run in the playoffs, though. That’s eluded them in the past, so there’s obvious skepticism that it can happen this year. But count them out at your own peril.

How they beat you
The Clippers’ offense functions with militaristic precision and a clear chain of command. Paul is the ship’s captain, orchestrating everyone else into position and scoring when necessary. Griffin is the first mate, working directly in tandem with the captain, but also with certain powers as delegated by Paul. Redick is the second mate that initiates many Clippers’ sets and runs around like a decoy when he doesn’t get the ball. Everyone else falls into very specific roles without many chances for upward mobility.

That structure allows L.A. to pack lots of pace and motion into their possessions. Each player is willing to carry out their responsibilities even if they don’t get the ball, which is how you get a sequence like this. Defenses can’t account for this much player movement in this short a time.

That activity allows the Clippers to mask their relative lack of perimeter shooting. Redick is an expert marksman, but Matt Barnes is only OK, Paul is often reluctant and Griffin -- while diligent about improving his jumper -- is still below average. And if everything breaks down, you can’t go wrong with a Paul/Griffin pick and roll.

The Clippers’ defense improved in the second half of the year, but is still vulnerable against good teams. Rivers prefers aggressive traps on pick and rolls and asks each big man to slide at least to the level of the ball while the other three players zone up. It’s similar to the way the Heat defended during the Big 3 era and helps mask the lack of quality individual defenders on the roster.

But it also can look bad against teams that can move the ball. Smart opponents set picks with Jordan’s man to force him away from the hoop, knowing that nobody else can protect the basket.

A less technical way to beat the Clippers is to go after their bench. Crawford is the only decent NBA player on there, and he’s a defensive liability that’s battled injury issues. Spencer Hawes has fit in poorly after singing a four-year deal and Austin Rivers can’t shoot, drive or pass at an NBA level. Glen Davis is occasionally useful defensively, but is a minus on the other end. Hedo Turkoglu is a minus everywhere. The Clippers need to stagger their lineups to always keep a starter in the game, which limits the minutes that powerful unit can play together.

Most important player
You could go any number of ways here because all five Clippers starters are really important players. All five of them have net ratings of more than +11 when they are on the court. By contrast, Rivers, Crawford, Davis and Hawes all have net ratings of over +10 when they are off the court.

That’s bound to happen to some degree when the starters play so much together, but the same effect happens when one isolates the offending parties. The Clippers’ starting lineup outscores opponents by around 17 points per 100 possessions, but that drops to just +5 simply by replacing Barnes with Crawford. The Paul/Jordan/Redick trio without Rivers is around a +17 per 100 possessions, merely replacing Redick with Rivers drops that number down to around +8, per NBAWowy.com. And that’s what happens when you keep the three best players on the floor.

It remains to be seen if staggering lineups really does enough to limit the effect of the Clippers’ bad bench.

Dancing Days are here again
Any national TV producer won’t be doing their job if there’s not a camera on new Clippers owner Steve Ballmer at all times. Lest we forget, this is how he gets down to Fergie.

And this is how he reacted to a big play in a preseason game.

That was in a preseason game. What will he do when Chris Paul hits a fourth-quarter dagger?