Portland Trail Blazers playoff preview: Injuries strike at the worst time

This was the year for the Portland Trail Blazers to push all their chips in. LaMarcus Aldridge was at his peak, Damian Lillard was coming into his own and the supporting cast had fallen into place. Uncertainty loomed on the horizon with three starters hitting free agency this summer, so the time was now or never.

Those pieces were falling into place. Portland raced to a 30-8 start, withstood a Robin Lopez injury, made an in-season trade for Arron Afflalo to boost an inconsistent bench and entered the second half of the year as one of the handful of teams best equipped to knock the Warriors off.

But that was before a wrong step caused Wesley Matthews to crumple into a heap on the MODA Center floor during a game against the Mavericks. The bad news came swiftly: A torn Achilles, a long recovery with free agency looming and a major setback for a team that thrived because of its continuity.

Without Matthews, the Blazers stumbled to a 10-12 record down the stretch, only holding the No. 4 seed in name because they won their division. They are forever a threat because of Aldridge, Lillard and one of the prettiest offenses in the league, but it’s hard not to think of what might have been when watching them.

How they beat you
The Blazers have one of the league’s most terrifying weapons: A player that can hit any shot no matter what the defense does. Actually, they have two. You can play amazing defense and still be beat by an Aldridge moonball. You can try to contain Lillard in the pick and roll and still be beat when he pulls up from 26 feet.

Aldridge obviously doesn’t hit every 18-foot contested fadeaway, nor does Lillard nail every pull-up three. The fact that they can, though, threatens a defense’s discipline. The Blazers have a great system, excellent spacing, pinpoint passing and well-scripted movement to take advantage of their stars, so many think opponents are better off single-covering the top options so the others don’t go off. They trust their elite defenders to try their best without needing help.

But it’s easy to say that’s the strategy. It’s much harder to stick to it when Aldridge hits four tough shots in a row or Lillard brings the Blazers back from another double-digit deficit. The Rockets tried single-covering Aldridge in last year’s playoffs and allowed 89 points in the first two games, both Portland wins. They never recovered.

The Blazers’ spacing isn’t nearly as good without Matthews, but the threat of Aldridge and Lillard shooting Portland to a series victory is very much alive.

For most of the year, Portland was a solid defensive team. The Blazers executed a conservative strategy that parked their big men close to the basket, ceding mid-range jumpers to point guards coming off screens. Portland was actually ranked third in defensive efficiency prior to Matthews’ injury.

But the wheels have fallen off since. Only six teams have allowed more points per possession since March 5, and only one (Dallas) also made the playoffs. The new Portland starting lineup with Afflalo in Matthews’ place has been particularly bad, allowing 111 points per 100 possessions.

Blaming Afflalo alone for the drop is unfair. Lillard still struggles badly getting over screens, which is especially problematic because Portland’s scheme doesn’t want its big man jumping out to help him contain the ball. Plays like these are why the Blazers will probably have Nicolas Batum guarding elite point guards in key playoff minutes.

There are other issues. Lopez is an excellent rim protector, but can be exposed in space. Batum is only OK when he should be great. Aldridge carries such a heavy offensive load, so he takes plays off. Portland’s bench lacks athleticism now that Afflalo starts, Will Barton is in Denver and Dorell Wright is out for the first round with a hand injury. Matthews was everything you’d want in a perimeter defender and the Blazers are finding they can’t replace him by committee.

Most important player
The Blazers would have fallen off a lot more after Matthews’ injury had Batum not woken up. The Blazers’ small forward has always been one of the toughest in the league to value. He does so much for Portland, but still leaves one thinking he can do so much more. When he’s on, his passing breathes life into the offense, he hits tough perimeter shots and covers for Lillard’s defensive issues. When he’s off, it’s as if he’s not even on the court and Portland becomes a predictable two-man team.

Recently, though, he’s been very on. Batum was a mess before the all-star break, shooting just 37 percent from the field and looking scared to drive or throw decisive passes. Since the eight-day breather, he’s hitting 49 percent from the field and 45 percent from three-point range. The Blazers need him to fire away from deep without Matthews and not let his shooting dictate the rest of his game.

How Robin Lopez’s mascot abuse began
Did you know that Robin Lopez’s ongoing feud with NBA mascots began with an incident that had nothing to do with him?

In Dec. 2013, Hooper, the Detroit Pistons’ mascot, was jumped by a series of Brooklyn Nets players. Andray Blatche was the primary goon, and Hooper later got his revenge by nailing Blatche with silly spray. But Brook Lopez, Robin’s brother, was also involved, prompting this threat.

Lopez wrestled Hooper to the ground when the Blazers visited Detroit four days later and has been on a rampage since. He called out the Raptors’ mascot in an interview last January, then dropped him unceremoniously a year later when he made fun of Lopez’s hair. He gouged the Spurs coyote’s eyes out. He powerbombed Stuff, the adorable Magic dragon. He attacked the Houston Rockets’ mascot before a playoff game. He stole G-Wiz’s hat.He threw Harry the Hawk to the ground beak-first after losing a staring contest. He threatened the Cavaliers’ mascot for fraternizing with his brother. He carried Hooper upside down into the locker room tunnel and threw him on the ground a year after the first incident.

Memphis’ mascot did exact some measure of revenge for these senseless crimes, but that’ll only make Robin angrier. He better watch his back during this playoff series.