No. 4 seeds are not supposed to get swept in the first round. Until this postseason, it had never happened since the NBA expanded the first round to a best-of-seven series in 2003. It has now after the Toronto Raptors became the first team to accomplish this feat with their 125-94 Game 4 loss in Washington on Sunday.
The Raptors’ collapse means it’s time to blow the team up
Toronto’s unceremonious exit from the playoffs could be the opening general manager Masai Ujiri needs to dramatically reshape the roster to fit his beliefs.
Greg Fiume/Getty Images
Worse, three of the four games weren’t even close. Toronto’s four losses came by an average of nearly 14 points per game. In Game 4, with its season on the line, the Raptors came out and fell behind by 16 points in the first quarter. By the end of the third, they trailed by 32.
It was an embarrassing defeat that raises serious questions about the team’s future. How did a team that won 49 regular-season games completely collapse in the playoffs? Why should that team be kept together?
Remember, Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri inherited this roster and it became an East playoff team by accident. The original plan was to blow up the group, but they went on that incredible post-Rudy Gay trade run last season and Ujiri decided he didn't want to mess with success.
But now that the Raptors have been thoroughly demolished by a lower seed, Ujiri has no reason to stay patient. How did the Raptors situation fall apart so quickly?
Kyle Lowry was awful
Defense was always a problem for the Raptors this season. Toronto was known for over-helping and never developed any cohesion on that end of the court. The result was a team that surrendered the most points per possession of any team in the playoffs.
The collapse of the team’s offense during the playoffs, though, comes a surprise. During the regular season, the Raptors were one of the league’s top scoring units. The Raptors averaged over 108 points per 100 possessions, the third-best mark in the NBA.
Their perimeter-oriented attack ran circles around teams all year. Kyle Lowry was an All Star this season, DeMar DeRozan is one of the better wing scorers in the league and Lou Williams, the Sixth Man of the Year, provided instant firepower off the bench.
Everything changed in the playoffs. The Wizards held Toronto to a minuscule 95.4 points per 100 possessions, locking up its attack before it started. Suddenly, the ball was sticking everywhere and the crisp decisions were gone.
Raptors O in a nutshell RT @outsidethenba: good quote from greivy biscuits pic.twitter.com/wtEoacQOnb
— Bruce Arthur (@bruce_arthur) April 27, 2015 Lowry in particular disappeared for whatever reason. He averaged just 12 points and five assists while battling foul trouble and connected on just 22 percent of his three-point attempts. He was thoroughly outplayed by John Wall, and the Raptors suffered. During the regular season, the Raptors scored 107.5 points per 100 possessions when Lowry was on the court, per NBA.com. In the playoffs, that number fell to just under 95. Lowry was playing through injuries, but they don't explain that large of a drop-off.
Without their leader playing well, Toronto had no shot at beating the Wizards. Perhaps the Raptors lose anyway if Lowry played better, but they were powerless without him.
Prepare for big changes
But Toronto has bigger issues than Lowry that have been brewing for a while. Toronto was just 12-18 following the All Star break, ruining a strong start to the season.
The Raptors have some talented players, but they don't fit well together. Lowry is already 29 and might not be someone Ujiri wants to build around. Remember, Ujiri tried to trade Lowry last season to the Knicks, only to have James Dolan back out of the deal at the last minute. It shouldn't be a shock if he puts Lowry on the block again.
It’s hard to see how the rest of the roster develops to push the Raptors to the next level. DeMar DeRozan is talented and has developed nicely, but he was also bad in this series, shooting just 40 percent on some terrible attempts against Washington. He has two more seasons, at $10 million per left on his deal, but he has a player option before that final year. Trading him now rather than closer to the expiration of his current deal could be the best option for Ujiri because he can net a larger return.
The rest of the team isn't under contract for long. Williams will be a free agent this offseason and will be looking to cash in on his Sixth Man of the Year status. Amir Johnson, Landry Fields, Chuck Hayes and Tyler Hansbrough will all be free agents too, while Greivis Vasquez has just one more season left on his deal. Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross, both of whom have shown promise but have also been shaky at times, are both up for rookie contract extensions. Have they shown enough for Ujiri to make a significant financial commitment to them?
In five months, the Raptors’ roster could look nothing like the one we just saw roll over. Will Ujiri look to completely remake the entire thing or start with small changes? Does he want to win now, or would he rather build slowly? This will be Ujiri’s second offseason with the Raptors, but it will be his first chance to build the team in his image.
That said, the first decision he has to make has nothing to do with the players on the court.
What about Dwane Casey's future?
This will be the question Ujiri must answer first. If he cares about what his players think, their comments on Monday spoke volumes.
Lowry on Casey's future: "I respect Case as a man ... It's not my decision. At the end of the day, if he's the coach, I'm a player."
— Dave Feschuk (@dfeschuk) April 27, 2015 Lou Will on Casey: "He’s a motivational coach. He really gets guys going, just as far as getting guys fired up. He’s a very passionate guy."
— James Herbert (@outsidethenba) April 27, 2015 It’s never a good sign for a coach when his best player gives a tepid quote like that and another suggests his “passion” is the skill worth singling out rather than his technical acumen or ability to keep the team together.
Casey has now been with the Raptors for four seasons. His record in Toronto is 184-158, which is good, but not great. That’s pretty much how his tenure can be defined. He is fighting for his job and he knows it.
Casey: "I’m very confident I know what it takes to build a winning team."
— James Herbert (@outsidethenba) April 27, 2015 The team's defensive collapse hurts Casey's case the most. It's not just that it was awful. It's that defense is supposed to be Casey's specialty. His role as the de facto defensive coordinator for the Mavericks' championship team in 2011 is what got him hired in Toronto. He's also been pleading for his team to show more defensive commitment all year, and yet no improvement has been made. That doesn't speak well of Casey, who has only one guaranteed year and a team option for a third season left on a contract he signed last summer.
It’s again worth noting that he was hired before Ujiri came along. This sums up the Raptors’ entire situation and explains why big changes could be in store. Ujiri just saw this group get embarrassed by the Wizards, so he no longer has a reason to keep them together.
Now it’s up to him to decide how quickly he tears them apart.
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