We're almost at the end of the road with less than two weeks left before the NBA Playoffs. At this point, the MVP debate is basically a two-man race, though four others have great arguments for the award as well. James Harden had the edge last week and has been on top for quite some time, but Stephen Curry remains right there.
These 6 NBA MVP candidates are all so close
It looks like either James Harden or Stephen Curry will win MVP, but even the fringe candidates have good arguments for the award.
This edition of the Power Rankings will focus more on two of the lower candidates, but next week we’ll be back to focus on the top of the race and select a winner.
1. James Harden (Last week: 1)
Harden's shooting efficiency took a bit of a dive in March when he converted on just 41 percent from the field and 32 percent from three, but April has been much kinder to him thus far. Through three games, he's posting averages of 39 points, six rebounds and six assists while hitting 55 percent from the field and 62 percent from three. He has gone for more than 40 points in two of the three games, including a career-high 51-point effort last Wednesday that has helped him take a slim lead over Russell Westbrook in the scoring race:
It's worth mentioning that the Rockets have won 10 of 12 games to move into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Houston leads Memphis by a game in the standings, although two games against the Spurs are upcoming. Needless to say, Harden will need to be on his "A" game against Kawhi Leonard and the defending champs.
2. Stephen Curry (Last week: 2)
Curry and the Warriors fell victim to the Leonard-led Spurs juggernaut on Sunday, and although the point guard finished with a solid 24 points on 9-of-17 shooting, the lasting memory of that game was Leonard pick-pocketing Curry and turning that into a dunk on the other end.
That aside, Curry's three-point shooting continues to be scorching hot. In his last nine games, he's shooting better than 57 percent from deep on more than eight attempts per game. His three-point heroics were on display against the Suns last week:
3. Russell Westbrook (Last week: 3)
Westbrook’s magic appears to be running out. While he’s still busy notching triple-doubles, his shooting efficiency has taken a nosedive. He has failed to hit 35 percent of his shots in seven of his last 10 games and has been dreadful from three.
Not coincidentally, the Thunder are 5-5 over this stretch and have lost five of six, although horrific defense is also playing a role in this slump. Oklahoma City doesn't control its own playoff destiny anymore, but the Pelicans have a tough schedule to close out the season, so the Thunder might still be OK.
4. LeBron James (Last week: 4)
It's amazing to think that James didn't have a triple-double this season prior to Sunday afternoon's game against rival Chicago. There had been a couple close calls, but he finally broke through against the Bulls with 20 points, 12 assists and 10 boards in a victory:
The win all but secured the Central Division and No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. It also extended the Cavaliers' home winning streak to a whopping 18 games. Cleveland hasn't lost at home since James missed that stretch of contests earlier in the season with some nagging injuries.
Anthony Davis (Last week: 5)
Davis has been a mere mortal over the last week, averaging 20 points, nine rebounds, four assists and three blocks while shooting a shade over 44 percent from the field. The fact that those numbers represent a down week for him statistically illustrates just how great he’s been over the course of his third season in the league.
At just 22 years old, Davis has put up one of the most prolific seasons of all time. Davis has flirted with Wilt Chamberlain’s all-time PER record of 31.7, and while Brow probably won’t get it considering he’s just under 31 at the moment, the fact that he’s even close is remarkable.
Davis currently averages 24 points, 10 rebounds, two assists, and three blocks per game. There are only six other players in NBA history to post those averages in a season, via Basketball-Reference.com: David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Bob McAdoo and Patrick Ewing. McAdoo was the only one to do it at the age Davis is now.
Not only are Davis's numbers impressive overall, but he has been great in clutch situations (last five minutes of fourth quarter and overtime with the margin within five points). He's shooting just over 63 percent in the clutch on 57 attempts, which is the best mark in the league for players with over 50 shot attempts in such situations, per NBA.com. The problem is that he only has 57 clutch shot attempts while teammate Tyreke Evans has 76 despite shooting under 33 percent.
It’s no surprise that the Pelicans play at their best with Davis on the court and at their worst with him on the bench. New Orleans has outscored opponents by over five points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and have been outscored by nearly six points per 100 possessions with him on the bench, per NBA.com.
One of the biggest knocks against Davis’s MVP candidacy has been that the Pelicans weren’t a playoff team. With New Orleans knocking on the door of a playoff berth, his case looks a bit stronger. If the Pelicans can sneak into the postseason, a move up in these rankings would be in order, although he won’t touch Harden or Curry at this point.
Chris Paul (Last week: 6)
Paul is, somewhat quietly, having his best year as a Clipper while directing the league's best offense. The Clippers have the best offensive efficiency despite Blake Griffin missing over a month, and we can thank Paul's brilliance for that.
During the time Griffin was out, Los Angeles scored over 110 points per 100 possessions with Paul on the floor compared to under 93 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench, per NBA.com. On the whole, the Clippers were more than 20 points better per 100 possessions with Paul on the floor when Griffin was sidelined.
Paul’s individual statistics were superb when Griffin was out, as the Point God put up 21 points, 12 assists and four rebounds while shooting 51 percent in those 15 games. For the season, he’s averaging 19 points, 10 and five rebounds with a shooting line of 49 percent from the field, 40 percent from three and 90 percent from the line.
Paul is fourth in ESPN’s Offensive Real Plus-Minus and third in Wins Above Replacement. He’s first in Offensive Win Shares and second in overall Win Shares, per Basketball-Reference.com. This is all to say he has had an unbelievable season and deserves to be recognized.
Paul recently had his best performance of the year, putting up 41 points and 17 assists in a win over the Trail Blazers last Wednesday:
I almost feel bad ranking Paul this low after writing all this, but I just can’t bring myself to put him over any of the other candidates. That’s how good this MVP race has been.
Next four: Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, John Wall
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