The Los Angeles Lakers are entering a key offseason. Next year could be Kobe Bryant's last and no one in Los Angeles wants to send him out on a sour note. Free agency will be the team's main focus, a test of the franchise's ability to attract top tier talent even while struggling so much last season.
The Lakers’ future is riding on luck in the draft lottery
An unlucky bounce of the ping pong balls this year could have long term repercussions for the Lakers.
Before free agency, however, there's the NBA Draft. If they nail their pick, the Lakers could have a young star on their hands on a cheap contract, which would make striking out in free agency for the second year in a row not as painful. Yet there is a possibility, however small, that the Lakers emerge from this offseason losers on both fronts. And it would all have to do with poor asset management and terrible, terrible luck.
The Lakers might not get their pick this year
The Lakers finished with the fourth-worst record in the league and have an 11.9 percent chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick. If they pick in the top five, they keep their selection and their 2016 pick goes to the Philadelphia 76ers. That's the most likely and positive scenario. There's also a small but real chance two teams leapfrog them in the lottery and they finish with the sixth pick.
If that happens, the 76ers would get that selection, via the Phoenix Suns. The Lakers originally sent that pick in a sign and trade for Steve Nash and it's top-five protected in 2015. The Suns traded it as part of the Michael Carter-Williams/Brandon Knight transaction.
That would be devastating, and not only because of the terrible season fans had to endure but because ...
The Lakers might not pick that high again for a while
If the Lakers finish outside the top five this year, they would have their pick in 2016. In that scenario, it would be much better for them to tank another season, get a high draft pick and potentially land a star. The problem is the franchise has a mandate to improve.
Another season sharing the court with castaways and reclamation projects in the hopes to lose as much as possible would be a hard sell to Bryant. The Lakers have to do something with the cap space they have this summer before every team gets some as the salary cap explodes. Anything they do will likely improve them as a team, result in a better record and by extension a lower pick.
NBA Draft
The Lakers are not good at picking late
So what if the team doesn't get a high draft pick? There are gems to be unearthed late and Mitch Kupchak will have a chance to do that this offseason. The Lakers will have the 27th overall pick in 2015 via the Houston Rockets from the Jeremy Lin trade.
The problem is the draft becomes a complete crapshoot that low, with teams having as big a chance of drafting a contributor as someone who will be out of the league in a couple of years. For every Tony Parker there are a bunch of Daniel Ortons. Since all first-round draft picks have two guaranteed years, making those picks and signing those rookies means a commitment.
Unfortunately for the Lakers, they don’t have much experience selecting there and they don’t have the best track record when they have done it.
Los Angeles has had only one first-round pick in the past five years: the seventh overall in 2014, with which it selected Julius Randle. When they've picked outside of the lottery in the past 10 years, they have selected Toney Douglas, Javaris Crittenton and Jordan Farmar. Douglas is the only one still in the league after a stint abroad. He was traded to the New York Knicks on draft day so he never played for the Lakers. Crittenton is in jail and Farmar is plying his trade in Turkey. The chances of the Lakers getting a cornerstone with the Rockets' pick this year or their own in 2016 seem slim.
If they lose the 2015 pick, the 2017 pick is going to Orlando
So the worst-case scenario for the Lakers would be to be leapfrogged by two teams, therefore losing their pick this year. They would get the Rockets’ pick in 2015 and their own in 2016, but one of those will definitely be outside the lottery and unless they don’t use their cap space to improve at all, the one in 2016 will be a late lottery pick at best. In the past few years the Lakers have not done well picking in that range.
At that point they might as well make some short term signings to tread water and wait for 2017. Kobe could be gone and if they don’t land a true franchise cornerstone in free agency, the Lakers could tank that season and try to build through the draft.
Except they can't because they owe a top-five protected pick that year to the Orlando Magic from the Dwight Howard trade -- two years would have passed since they conveyed a first-rounder to Philadelphia, as agreed by all teams. Los Angeles doesn't have a pick with no strings attached until 2018.
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It's not likely but the post-Kobe era could start with no young talent outside of Randle and Jordan Clarkson because of the Nash and Howard trades and there's little the Lakers can do about it. So pray to the lottery gods to not forsake your franchise on May 19, Lakers fans, or hope a couple of top level free agents leave money on the table and switch teams. Otherwise, the rebuilding era could last longer than many hope.
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