The Rockets' season ended on Wednesday at the hands of the Warriors. After beating the Mavericks and coming back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Clippers, Houston was no match for Golden State, which closed the series in five games. Getting to the conference finals signaled improvement for Houston after being eliminated in the first round the season before, but for a team looking to win a championship, that incremental progress isn't enough.
The Rockets could lose the bench they worked so hard to build
The Rockets have built a deep team, but they could lose their bench if they decide to roll the dice in free agency.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
That’s why the Rockets will face some important questions heading into the offseason -- namely, whether to keep the roster together or risk losing the depth they spent time and resources building in an attempt to sign a quality free agent. Let’s explore both options.
The safe choice: Keeping the band together
The biggest knock on Houston to start the season was that the bench was depleted after dumping Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin to carve out cap space for a failed push at Chris Bosh. Kostas Papanikolaou, Joey Dorsey and Jason Terry were not going to cut it in the West, folks said.
But during the season, general manager Daryl Morey managed to add Pablo Prigioni, Corey Brewer and Josh Smith to fortify that unit. Rookie Clint Capela emerged as an option at center and intriguing rookie wing K.J. McDaniels was also added to the fold, though he didn't play much. Had Donatas Motiejunas and Patrick Beverley stayed healthy, the Rockets would have been one of the deepest teams in the league. They could decide to keep that group together and hope to make the leap by using their depth as a weapon.
Unfortunately, the three most-used reserves -- Terry, Brewer and Smith -- as well as Beverley will become free agents. If the Rockets decide to bring them back, they will not have cap room to add an impact player via free agency, which means they would go into next season with essentially the same roster. If they believe they could have won it all with Motiejunas and Beverley available, standing pat is the right course of action.
It’s certainly the safest move and would guarantee Houston another 50-win season and a shot at another long playoff run. The ceiling of the team won’t be raised unless someone on the roster improves greatly, but there will be a chance to make a move later on if the early results aren’t encouraging enough.
The risky choice: Going all-in for an impact player
The Rockets have a killer one-two punch in James Harden and Dwight Howard and solid role players in Trevor Ariza, Motiejunas and Terrence Jones under contract. Yet Morey's intention has always been to add a third star. He came close last offseason with Chris Bosh, but couldn't close the deal.
This offseason the Rockets won’t have the cap space to land a player of that caliber but could carve up around $9 million to make a quality addition by renouncing all free agents, including Beverley.
The options at that price range are not ideal. Unless they can arrange a sign-and-trade, the premier point guards -- guys like Goran Dragic and Brandon Knight -- won't be attainable for Houston. That would leave potential signings at positions the Rockets are already strong at, like the two forward spots, as more likely options. Bringing in someone like Khris Middleton to be a super-sub, or David West to provide some veteran leadership in the front line, could make sense; however, both may be out of Houston's price range.
The Rockets will also kick the tires on much bigger sign-and-trade options for Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and other marquee players. In those situations, players like Jones, Motiejunas and Capela would be trade bait. But the more realistic scenario is that Houston waits until 2016 to hunt a big fish. That’s when Howard can opt out of his contract, giving Houston cap room.
As for the hole at point guard, with Harden handling the ball a lot Houston can survive with someone cheap who can shoot and defend. Steve Blake and Jameer Nelson are downgrades compared to Beverley, but would be affordable replacements. Houston just navigated the playoffs with Terry as their starting lead guard.
Unlike this past year, though, the Rockets will not be armed with seemingly countless second-round picks to turn into contributors as the season goes along. The hopes then would be to add a quality rookie with the No. 18 pick, and for Clint Capela and Nick Johnson to improve in their sophomore season.
It would be a huge risk to go into next year with so few reliable and proven players. But if Houston feels there’s a free agent who could potentially develop into a star or a veteran who could have an Ariza-like impact, they might pull the trigger.
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There’s no right course of action, not at this point. Right now keeping the roster intact, preserving assets and seeing how far the team can go when healthy seems like the way to go. Once the draft passes, however, free agency options become clearer. That’s when the Rockets will know where they stand and that’s when they’ll make their decision.
Out of all this year’s contenders, Houston’s offseason will be one of the most fascinating to watch unfold.
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