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Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers, NBA Playoffs 2015: Series preview, schedule and prediction

James Harden and the Rockets take on Chris Paul and the Clippers with a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line.

The Rockets and Clippers took different routes to advance to the West semifinals. The Rockets are well-rested after dominating the Dallas Mavericks 4-1 to move onto the second round. The Clippers, meanwhile, battled the San Antonio Spurs for seven games in one of the best first-round series of all time, ultimately coming out on top in the final, thrilling game, 111-109. Now, the West's No. 2 and 3 seeds will face-off with a trip to the West finals on the line.

The biggest concern for each team will be stopping James Harden and Chris Paul. For the Rockets, Trevor Ariza could be assigned to disrupt Paul's game. There's a chance Paul sits out Game 1, but once back, Ariza or whoever guards Paul will have his hands full. Paul did just fine against the Spurs, even though he faced a top defense and struggled through injury, averaging 22.7 points and 7.9 assists in the first round of the playoffs.

Matt Barnes is likely to take on the duty of guarding Harden, who struggled in his four games against the Clippers this season. He averaged just 20 points in those games compared to the 27.4 he averaged all season. Harden is usually a great finisher, but having to face DeAndre Jordan down low hurts his chances near the basket. It's important for Harden to initiate the offense even if he's not scoring -- he'll have to continue to drive to the rim in order to get to the free throw line and free up shooters like Jason Terry and Ariza.

The battle down low is intriguing for both teams. Is Dwight Howard going to guard Blake Griffin, or will he be charged with keeping Jordan off the glass? The rockets have Terrence Jones and Josh Smith to hang with the thin front court of the Clippers, who have Glen Davis to provide relief off the bench.

This should be a high-scoring series between two evenly-matched teams. The winner will advance to the Western Conference Finals where they'll face either the Golden State Warriors or the Memphis Grizzlies. Nothing comes easy in the West.

The Matchup

  • Rockets (56-26, expected: 50-32) vs. Clippers (56-26, expected: 58-24)
  • Offensive efficiency: Rockets 104.2 (12th) | Clippers 109.8 (1st)
  • Defensive efficiency: Rockets 100.5 (6th) | Clippers 103.0 (15th)
  • Season series: Tied 2-2. The Clippers won the first two games between the two, but the Rockets won the next two, including a 100-98 victory in their last meeting on March 15.

4 questions that will decide the series

We asked our Rockets site The Dream Shake and our Clippers site Clips Nation to give us the lowdown on these two teams.

1. What do you think is your team’s biggest advantage in this series?

The Dream Shake: The answer has to be depth. While the Rockets have the MVP runner-up and a rejuvenated Dwight Howard, their true advantage will come when anyone from the Clippers bench is forced to play extended minutes. The Rockets' bench, after Daryl Morey stocked it with Corey Brewer, Josh Smith and Pablo Prigioni midseason, is one of the best in the league. Lineups with those three, Dwight Howard and Trevor Ariza (read: no James Harden) outscored the Mavericks by double digits in the first round. I expect them to continue to use the unit to great success.

Clips Nation: I think the biggest advantage for the Clippers in this series is that they're the better team. That may sound facile, but I'm a big believer in margin of victory and efficiency differentials. The Clippers were second-best in the NBA in the regular season with a 6.9 net rating, more than three points per 100 possessions better than Houston's 3.7. So while the teams both finished with 56 wins, the metrics would say that the Clippers are better. The Clippers have arguably the best starting five in the NBA, and Houston's depth has been depleted by injuries to Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas, evening out the benches a bit.

2. What do you think is your team’s biggest disadvantage in this series?

TDS: The point guard position. Chris Paul is arguably the best point guard since prime Jason Kidd, while the Rockets have a pair of 37-year-olds in Jason Terry and Pablo Prigioni. Monta Ellis and J.J. Barea feasted on the pair last round, and they are nowhere near the caliber of Paul. I expect Ariza, Brewer and possibly Harden to take a lion's share of the time on Chris Paul, but that creates mismatches elsewhere. Rookie Nick Johnson -- a great athlete but to this point, a subpar NBA player -- could also see time for defensive reasons.

CN: James Harden. Strangely the Clippers did an incredible job on Harden most of the season -- the beard shot 36 percent against the LAC in four meetings, his worst percentage against a Western Conference opponent. But that looks like fool's gold. The Clippers don't have a wing stopper to speak of and Harden will be a tough cover for anyone they try to put on him. (I will say that Doc Rivers' schemes will tilt the floor toward Harden in way that will make things very difficult on him).

3. Which player needs to step his game up the most for your team to win?

TDS: James Harden. He only had one absolutely killer game against the Mavericks and he wilted in the playoffs last year. Plus, the Clippers have given him all kinds of trouble since he’s been the leader of the Rockets. It seems trite to say that the Rockets’ best player must play well, but he hasn’t yet in the playoffs for the team. They got by the Mavericks on talent and a size advantage. They can’t do the same against the Clippers. Harden must have an MVP-like series for the Rockets to advance.

CN: I'm going to answer this question twice. Chris Paul does not need to step his game up -- he just needs to be close to full strength. Obviously if he is significantly limited by the pulled hamstring he suffered against the Spurs in Game 7 of the first round, it changes the calculus of the series immeasurably. Leaving Paul aside, it's Austin Rivers who is going to be key. Rivers will get extra minutes in the absence of Paul, who will play but may not be able to log the 40 plus minutes he did in Round 1. Moreover, Doogie is among the best defenders that his dad can run at Harden. Believe it or not, Austin Rivers is going to be huge in Round 2.

4. What is your series prediction and why?

TDS: Rockets in seven. I think Harden will step up, and the Clippers’ seven-game slog, Chris Paul’s hamstring injury and their lack of a bench will all catch up to them. The teams are evenly matched, so the series should go long regardless. The more minutes the Clippers’ stars are forced to play, the more tired they will be. The Rockets had five full days off before this series. They should be able to parlay that into fresher legs and their first conference finals appearance in two decades.

CN: Clippers in six if Paul is 80 percent or better. Doc will rest Paul in Game 1 in the hopes that he’ll be closer to 100 percent by Wednesday, and the Clippers will win either Game 2 or Game 5 in Houston. By the time the series shifts back to L.A. Paul will be playing at close to full capacity and the Clippers won’t lose in STAPLES.

Predictions

Ziller
Flannery
Prada
O'Donnell
The Dream Shake
Clips Nation
IN 7
IN 7
IN 7
IN 7
IN 7
IN 6

Schedule (all times ET)

Game 1: Monday, May 4, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas, 9:30 p.m. (TNT)

Game 2: Wednesday, May 6, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas, 9:30 p.m. (TNT)

Game 3: Friday, May 8, Staples Center, Los Angeles, California, 10:30 p.m. (EPSN)

Game 4: Sunday, May 10, Staples Center, Los Angeles, California, 8:30 p.m. (TNT)

Game 5 (if necessary): Tuesday, May 12, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas, TBD (TNT)

Game 6 (if necessary): Thursday, May 14, Staples Center, Los Angeles, California, TBD (ESPN)

Game 7 (if necessary): Sunday, May 17, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas, TBD (TNT)

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