NBA free agency is going to get weird

FLANNERY: Free agency is upon us and I've got to say, I'm kinda excited about how this all turns out. Between LaMarcus Alridge, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade and a handful of others, we might get a lot of movement this summer. And that's just the top tier. Players like Greg Monroe are practically guaranteed to find new homes. Before we get into individual cases, is this the new reality or a weird blip in time and a function of that looming cap rise?

ZILLER: It's pretty much certain that shorter maximum length contracts and rules that limit the usefulness of extensions will lead to more frequent free agent forays for stars. That said, the cap explosion is certainly going to add some extra players into the pool next year. What that means for this year is that some situations are going to get really weird. We're already seeing that with Jimmy Butler rumors.

Interesting question in all this. Who has the power here: The players, or the teams? We know that LeBron James has all the stroke in his relationship with the Cavaliers because he's LeBron freaking James, but what about everyone else? On the one hand, shorter contracts tend to be in management's favor, but shorter deals for superstars keep the pressure on the franchises to get better. I haven't quite wrapped my head around this dynamic.

ZILLER: There were some indications of burgeoning team power last year as Eric Bledsoe and Greg Monroe -- two good starters -- had no real leverage. (They both still made a bunch of money, of course.) But they were both restricted, so that's to be expected. The Butler intrigue feels like an important blow for RFAs, even if nothing comes of it. It's the one area teams have exerted power, and this is a direct challenge to it stronger than Monroe's own assault.

Otherwise, players have had the power in free agency and will keep it. Like, a half-dozen teams are going to be begging DeAndre Jordan to sign for something in the neighborhood of $80 million in a few days. It feels like it's the same as it ever was. Do you agree?

FLANNERY: Not completely. I think there's a mix of austerity along with the usual go-for-brokers and that doesn't even begin to account for the looming cap space Armageddon in a few years. The Nets may re-sign Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young, but they appear to be cutting costs everywhere else, to cite one example. We've seen a shrinking middle class in recent years as deals get shorter and less expensive. Maybe we're due for a massive market correction as guys like Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll get big paydays, but I'm curious to see how this plays out.

But let's talk about the stars. Rank these four -- LMA, K-Love, D-Wade and Marc Gasol -- on a scale of See-ya to Staying Put.

I'm a bit torn on LMA and Wade, however. All signs point to an Aldridge exit, but there are still cap hurdles for the Spurs to climb, which frankly melt my brain. What if they can't get it it all together? He'll have tons of choices even if that falls apart, but are any of them better than re-upping with Portland? All I'm saying is I don't think it's a fait accompli, yet.

Love is so tricky. I can totally see him decamping for the Lakers, but I can also totally see him re-up in Cleveland. The taste of success is intoxicating, and he has an opportunity to stay with a dude who had been to the NBA Finals five straight years. I don't think most stars would be willing to walk away from that.

FLANNERY: Here's where I'm waiting for clarity on the Lakers' end of things. They just drafted D'Angelo Russell and have Julius Randle waiting in the wings to go along with Jordan Clarkson. Is that the future or is that the right now? If it's the future then I could absolutely see them going all out to land an Aldridge or a Love. If they have their sights set on grabbing DeMarcus Cousins (I know, Tom I know) then all bets are off for prospective free agents. Seems like Mitch Kupchak is playing both sides of the fence on this one, which is a smart read. Keep your options open, especially when you're a major destination market with money to burn.

ZILLER: I would have said Brandon Knight, but it appears the Suns will pay huge to keep him. Danny Green is a huge deal to me: he's incredibly important to the Spurs and could be a supplemental star to launch a new team upward. We disagree whether Khris Middleton is worth a bounty -- I'm completely sold on him.

FLANNERY: I like Khris Middleton, but restricted free agency for a player his caliber seems like a waste of time and resources. I'm with you on Danny Green. I think he's probably gone, and he'd be a good fit on so many teams. There's another interesting dynamic in the glut of rim protectors: Tyson Chandler, Omer Asik, Robin Lopez and a guy who will probably be a starter somewhere in Kostas Koufos. Oh, and what about Ed Davis? We've been waiting for the breakout from his for years, but he keeps getting short money and limited opportunity.

This is where free agency gets dangerous. Overpay for the wrong guy and you've got some cap problems down the line. Hit on the right one and you've improved yourself for a reasonable cost. This was more or less the Hawks model and it will be interesting to see how many teams try to go down this road this summer. Can you tap into a market inefficiency if there's increased competition?