The Western Conference can't help itself. After another offseason full of the usual NBA roster upheaval, the top title contenders are all as good or better than the year before. LeBron James keeps the balance of power from completely skewing towards the Pacific Ocean, but only barely.
How the final 2 playoff spots in the West can be won
The top six in the Western Conference is already established, assuming health, but the fight for the final two is much more interesting.
Between the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies, Clippers and Thunder, the top six seeds in the West seem predestined. It's premature to say that, sure, especially one year removed from Kevin Durant missing nearly an entire season and Oklahoma City falling out of the playoffs entirely. Injuries could derail any of those teams, but barring something catastrophic, everyone there will have life after April 15.
The more interesting dynamic is who will fall into place behind them. The Anthony Davis-led Pelicans seemingly have the best chance, making the playoffs with 45 wins last year, but they're just one of five teams truly in the running for the final two spots.
New Orleans Pelicans
Why they would make the playoffs: Davis is on the doorstep of becoming the NBA's best player. He's an athletic freak who is only 22 and we've seen him make massive strides every year. After another offseason of maturation -- does he start shooting 3-pointers!? -- Davis will make a strong push towards MVP in a season where he stays relatively healthy. Meanwhile, New Orleans has a new coach, Alvin Gentry, who is highly regarded as a basketball strategist and can improve an already good offense. He's not as well known for his defense but he hired someone who is, Darren Erman, who should help New Orleans improved on last season's poor defense.
Why they wouldn’t make the playoffs: If they have yet another injury-stricken season, particularly if Davis misses time, the Pelicans could falter and fail to improve on last year’s run to the No. 8 seed. Barring something like that, though, New Orleans is talented enough to find themselves in the postseason and perhaps even push the No. 6 seed.
Why they would make the playoffs: The Jazz rolled to a 19-10 record with the NBA's fourth-best net rating after the All-Star break. It was too late for a playoff push, but their play was noticed. Rudy Gobert emerged as a devastating defender, anchoring a unit that allowed the fewest post-All Star points per 100 possessions by a wide margin. Alec Burks will be back to start the season, giving Gordon Hayward another shot creator to slightly ease his workload, and Rodney Hood came on strong late in the season. If Utah can bottle up that second half surge and release it again next season, a spot as the No. 7 or 8 seed is bound to happen.
Why they would miss the playoffs: Dante Exum went down with an ACL tear a couple weeks ago and will miss the season. While he's not a vital cog, he was perhaps an underrated one, especially considering how much his long arms and wingspan affected players when he defended them. The other problem is that his backup is Trey Burke and two totally unproven players. If the point guard problem persists throughout the season, it could erode the positives Utah has as a team.
Why they would make the playoffs: If healthy, the Mavericks' starting five is very serviceable: Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews up top, with Chandler Parsons, Dirk Nowitzki and Zaza Pachulia in the front court. There are issues with the roster, but this team is so much more versatile than previous iterations, with contributions expected equally on both sides of the court. Led by the starting five and a few nice bench pieces, Dallas can push for a playoff spot just by being a solid squad of veterans led by a coach, Rick Carlisle, who is a known miracle worker.
Why they would miss the playoffs: The starting five may be solid, but it also may not come together until 2016. Matthews’ Achilles surgery in March is one of the hardest injuries for an NBA athlete to recover from, and when he does return, there’s no guarantee he’ll be the same player right away. Meanwhile, Parsons underwent knee surgery shortly after the season and the Mavericks have been very unclear about his recovery timetable. If one or both of those players miss significant time, Dallas simply won’t have enough firepower to push for anything other than the lottery.
Why they would make the playoffs: The Suns have built and rebuilt their roster several times now, trying to find the perfect balance of youth and talent. By ditching both Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas in exchange for Brandon Knight and added depth, Phoenix finally has a point guard with room to grow next to Eric Bledsoe with plenty of young depth, too. But while they're still developing, the Suns are legitimate about winning games, too, adding veteran center Tyson Chandler this summer. With his leadership and the young Suns taking another step, Phoenix is in prime position to beat out other teams for the No. 8 seed.
Why they wouldn't make the playoffs: Markieff Morris is demanding a trade out of Phoenix and the situation, regardless of how it's resolved, is troubling for a team that could really use his scoring as a big man. Markieff is upset at the way the Suns handled a Marcus Morris trade, feeling like he took less money to stay together with his brother. If Phoenix calms the situation only to see it blow up during the season, or do trade him with minimal returns, they've just lost someone expected to be a key contributor.
Why they would make the playoffs: This is a generous prediction that likely includes a couple of the above teams hitting on their worst case scenario, but there's no reason to rule out the Kings just yet. Their roster isn't bad, per se, just ... weird. Last year, Sacramento was rolling along just fine through one month before DeMarcus Cousins started missing time with health complications. It all starts with Cousins finding his groove again and then various players working out from there. If Maverick castoffs Darren Collison and Rajon Rondo can coexist amicably while Rudy Gay and Ben McLemore provide wing shooting, perhaps there's hope for the "Suicide Squad" yet.
Why they wouldn't make the playoffs: Because they're the fifth-best team competing for just two spots, because the friction between Cousins, George Karl and the front office boils over, because Rajon Rondo is as bad as he was in Dallas, because Kosta Koufas can't improve the defense single-handedly, because a Cousins, Rudy Gay and Kosta Koufas frontcourt just doesn't provide enough spacing and, of course, because they're the Kings. This probably isn't the roster Sacramento needs to make something happen in the Western Conference, no matter what they hope.
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