The Oklahoma City Thunder's loss in the NBA Finals in 2012 was merely viewed as a delaying of the inevitable at the time. Between Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Serge Ibaka, everyone thought this was just a good start for the young Thunder, and understandably so.
This might be the Thunder’s last chance for NBA Finals glory
The Thunder are finally healthy again with a new coach in place, but their path to the Finals has become increasingly difficult. With Kevin Durant’s free agency on the horizon, this year needs to be different.
Now that it's in the rearview, it's easy to see how wrong that was. In 2013, Harden was traded and Westbrook missed most of the playoffs after a freak collision in the first round. In 2014, Ibaka returned from a calf injury too late to make a difference against the Spurs. Last year, Durant missed a majority of the year with a bad foot and the Thunder didn't even make the playoffs.
While the Thunder have made some tweaks -- most notably the in-season trades for Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters last season -- this is still the same core of players outside of Harden. Why wouldn't it be? They won 59 and 60 games the two years prior to Durant's injury-stricken one, only to get unlucky in the playoffs. The biggest change isn't the personnel but a new head coach, with longtime college coach Billy Donovan replacing Scott Brooks after he spent six seasons with Oklahoma City.
However, Durant’s pending free agency will hang over this entire season for the Thunder. This may be the team’s last chance with this group. What must happen for them to maximize it?
Kanter has to fit with the healthy Thunder
With Durant missing the final portion of the schedule, there was never a chance to see him and Kanter on the floor together. Instead, Kanter took on an increased scoring role that needed to be filled and did it very well, scoring nearly 19 points per game on a career high 57 percent shooting from the floor.
The problem is that the Thunder had the league’s fourth-worst defense in the 29 games after the All-Star break and Kanter was right in the middle of it. Opponents scored 110 points per 100 possessions with Kanter on the floor compared to 103 with him off. He only blocked a shot every other game as the team’s primary center.
There’s a way to use Kanter successfully, but the Thunder must maximize his excellent post scoring while hiding the flaws. After matching his four-year, $70-million offer sheet, Oklahoma City will be compelled to start Kanter, but a substitution pattern where Kanter leaves early and returns against the second unit could help minimize the risk.
That would also help spread the ball around appropriately since Kanter is a high-usage player (23 percent career usage rate) on a team that already has two of the most ball-dominant players in the NBA. Oklahoma City clearly envisioned a scenario where Kanter could coexist with its stars when it brought him in, but now the team has to implement it.
Billy Donovan has to improve in areas Brooks struggled
It’s well established that Brooks wasn’t an innovator of basketball strategy. His sets were vanilla and his schemes bland -- they were often Brooks’ biggest criticisms. Yet even while the action on the floor stayed simple, the offenses he coached were highly effective, with the Thunder finishing with the second-best offenses in both 2011-12 and 2012-13 and the seventh-best in 2013-14.
Donovan, meanwhile, was a masterful game-planner at Florida who has been willing to adapt to different styles. As good as the Thunder could be by isolating Westbrook or Durant, the idea is that more intricate sets can open up even more shots for their gifted scorers. Donovan was also considered a strong developer of talent, something Oklahoma City largely struggled to do with a handful of young players.
Accepting this job meant Donovan was signing up for a very difficult first year. He’ll be under a lot of scrutiny with two of the highest profile NBA players suiting up for him nightly and Durant’s free agency around the corner. Being strong in areas Brooks wasn’t will help Dononvan and clearly show what upgrades he’s bringing to the franchise.
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Ultimately, the Thunder have to hope this is their year. Assuming health, Oklahoma City should be a top four seed in the Western Conference once again, but all that really matters is what happens in May and June. They’ve had playoffs runs derailed by injuries when the path to the NBA Finals seemed more clear and it’s only getting tougher. Golden State and San Antonio may both end up being better than any team the Thunder have faced in the playoffs during this era. At the very least, the top six seeds in the West are as strong as they’ve ever been.
Knowing that the Thunder might not return to the NBA Finals after their failed trip in 2012 seemed preposterous at the time, but it’s an actual reality at this point. And there’s not even anyone who can really take the blame. Things just haven’t worked out.
Yet.
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