Marc Gasol made headlines this summer when he decided to stay with the Memphis Grizzlies in free agency. But as the season approaches, the key to the Grizzlies' success lies with their other big man: Zach Randolph.
Zach Randolph and the Grizzlies are running out of chances
Randolph has helped make Memphis a consistent contender in the West, but will he ever be able to get them over the top?
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The Grizzlies have been a contender in the Western Conference since upsetting the No. 1 seed San Antonio Spurs in the 2011 playoffs, but they've never made it to the finals. The franchise is continuing to bet on the grind-it-out style that has put them in contention the past five seasons, but in an era when small ball is taking over, many want Memphis to adapt into a three-point shooting team. They aren't likely to get their wish: with two seasons left on his contract, the Grizzlies are counting on the 34-year-old Randolph.
One thing is for sure: his chances at an NBA title with the Grizzlies are dwindling -- especially if the Grizzlies can’t jump out of their rut of consistency.
Mr. Consistent
Randolph left Michigan State after one season ready to produce in the NBA. Playing behind Rasheed Wallace his first two seasons with Portland, Randolph averaged just 2.8 points and 1.7 rebounds in his first season and 8.4 points and 4.5 rebounds in his second. But he wasn't getting any playing time, playing only 5.8 minutes per game his rookie year and 16.9 in his second season.
Looking at Randolph’s per 36 minute averages from BasketballReference.com, he was effective when on the court his first two years in the league, and he has been throughout his career:
(per BasketballReference.com)
That’s 15 straight seasons of incredibly productive basketball. At 34, Randolph isn’t showing any signs of slowing down, either. After those first two seasons of few minutes and small numbers, he has consistently averaged more than 15 points and eight rebounds per game, aside from the 2011-12 season when injuries limited him to 28 games.
The numbers are surprisingly comparable to another consistent star: Tim Duncan. The San Antonio big man is a smidgen better on almost every statistic, but the gap is closer than you might think. Duncan’s per 36 minute averages for his career are 20.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. Randolph isn’t the defensive juggernaut that Duncan is, but he has put up similar offensive statistics to the Big Fundamental.
Duncan has the five NBA championships to his name, though.
Randolph’s importance to the Grizzlies
Randolph not only embodies the grit n’ grind style that runs the Memphis organization, but the Grizzlies are a much more efficient bunch when he’s on the court. When Randolph was on the court last season, Memphis’ offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) was 106.1, and they had a defensive rating (points given up per 100 possessions) of 99.9. When Randolph was off the court, those numbers weakened -- the Grizzlies had an offensive rating of 98.8 and a defensive rating of 100. The Grizzlies outscored opponents by 6.2 points per 100 possessions with Randolph on the court but were outscored by 1.2 when he was on the bench.
Last season was one of Randolph’s least productive in the past few years, but he’s still the key to the Grizzlies.
Contenders, but is the window closing?
Small ball rules, but the Grizzlies are maintaining that they can win with size and defense. It almost worked last year -- the Grizzlies took the Warriors to six games in the Western Conference semifinals -- but as Matt Moore of CBS Sports notes, the Grizzlies might need a little more luck on their side. The Grizzlies are capable of beating anyone in a seven-game series, they just need the matchups to fall in their favor for once.
The Grizzlies didn’t make huge changes -- they added Brandan Wright and Matt Barnes, but are still lacking a pure scorer -- and that’s because they’re betting on Randolph.
It’s a good bet because when he has been consistent, so have the Grizzlies. But they have yet to make the NBA Finals. You know what you’re getting out of Randolph, but a spark might be necessary to take that next step.
Randolph has two years left on his contract. So far, he’s shown no signs of slowing down, but when he’s 36 in two summers, are the Grizzlies going to sign him to another deal? And maybe that will be the spark the Grizzlies need: Randolph should have a sense of urgency.
But if that doesn’t do it, what will? The Grizzlies are in a tough spot: they’re consistent, but consistent isn’t good enough.
The Grizzlies are betting on Randolph and the grit n’ grind, but a spark is needed. Maybe they’ll get it with Wright and Barnes, and maybe they’ll stay healthy. The Grizzlies will be in the hunt for a trip to the finals this season, but unless they find the spark, it’s likely this season will end like the past five: before the NBA Finals.
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