For four days, the Dallas Mavericks had a new franchise center to help the organization transition out of the Dirk Nowitzki era and into a suddenly promising future. It was the same type of high-risk, high-reward plan that had failed Dallas before, but DeAndre Jordan's surprising decision justified everything Mark Cuban had been trying to do since tearing down a championship team in 2011. Finally, Nowitzki's final years wouldn't be spent in vain.
Mavericks caught between contention and rebuilding after DeAndre Jordan fiasco
After a complicated summer, Dallas must get a few things to fall into place to make the playoffs.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Then Jordan changed his mind. It was a crushing blow for Dallas after losing Tyson Chandler in free agency to the Suns, but the Mavericks had no other option except to deal with their new reality.
Acquiring Deron Williams and Zaza Pachulia was a humble attempt to reverse the damage that Jordan had caused. The Mavericks are likely on the outside looking in for the playoffs next season, but aside from the top six, the Western Conference is in flux. If a few very specific plans fall into place, the Mavericks could find themselves competing for a seventh or eighth seed. Here's what needs to happen.
Wes Matthews and Chandler Parsons can’t miss much time
Matthews suffered an Achilles tear in March and Parsons hasn’t started on-court activities after a mysterious post-playoffs surgery that the team has refused to reveal a timetable for. Dallas cannot, under any circumstances, rush them back in what may be a doomed season. However, if Parsons is ready to go from opening day and Matthews is able to return sooner rather than later, it would put the Mavericks in a much better position.
As it stands right now, Devin Harris, Justin Anderson and John Jenkins will probably soak up their minutes. Matthews and Parsons is a dangerous duo at the 2 and the 3, but only when both are healthy and playing.
The Mavericks say Parsons will return by opening day and continue to give good progress reports on Matthews. An Achilles injury is one of the worst you can suffer in the NBA and historically has had a poor track record for players who tear it, but combine Matthews’ toughness and modern medical advances and there’s reason to believe he’ll return as strong as ever.
Deron Williams needs to bounce back
The biggest wildcard on the Mavericks' roster is how well Williams can play in his hometown with one of the NBA's best medical staffs. His time with the Nets was disastrous, but his actual play wasn't terrible -- it just didn't live up to the money he was making.
Still just 31, Williams is the likely starter at point guard and he’s looking for a chance to rejuvenate his career at a more reasonable salary. At full strength, Dallas will have a roster full of capable shooters, but it will desperately need his penetration to generate drive-and-kick opportunities.
This is even more important when you consider Dallas led the league in pick and rolls ran last season and lost its leading roll man. Pachulia and Dirk Nowitzki aren’t going to crash to the rim much, leaving Jeremy Evans off the bench as the only player who truly excels in a “roll” role. While the Mavericks will stick to their strengths as much as they can, Williams’ ability to penetrate regardless of whether he’s using a screen is crucial to a successful Dallas offense.
The rebounding has to magically work
This is the biggest flaw of Dallas’ roster. Pachulia and Nowitzki had identical defensive rebounding rates (19.1 percent) last season and they’ll struggle to cover the Mavericks on the defensive glass without giving up constant second chance opportunities.
Dallas will play small and give up offensive rebounds simply because they have little choice to the contrary. However, players like Parsons and Matthews have to pull their weight at times while backup big men like Samuel Dalembert and Evans must help out as well.
Someone in the West has to let up
The Pelicans and Jazz are the favorites to earn the final two spots in the Western Conference with Dallas and Phoenix trailing behind them. If one of New Orleans or Utah falters, then there may be an opportunity for the Mavericks to sneak into a final playoff spot with a strong push with a healthy roster in the season's final months.
★★★
The difference between the East and the West is crippling for a fringe playoff team like Dallas, especially in the Southwest division. Still, the team has committed itself to pushing for one of the final spots, and ruling anyone out now is much too early. If things fall into place, the Mavericks could see themselves in the first round of the playoffs once again.
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