The Clippers traded away Matt Barnes this summer, leaving an open spot in their starting lineup. They acquired Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson, two players that could fill it. Instead, Doc Rivers is leaning towards starting Wesley Johnson at small forward, according to Grantland's Zach Lowe.
Doc Rivers is overthinking if he really plans to start Wesley Johnson
Wesley Johnson shouldn’t be the starting small forward on a team that has Paul Pierce on its roster.
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It’s not hard to see why Rivers is considering playing Pierce off the bench. Making the 37-year-old a reserve keeps his minutes down during the regular season and means he won’t have to guard the league’s best small forwards for long stretches. The starters are also used to having a low-usage wing alongside them after years of Barnes, and Johnson matches that description. If he can continue to hit three-pointers at an average rate, the Clippers offense will continue to hum.
At the same time, Doc is overthinking this. Here’s why.
1. Wesley Johnson is not a rotation-caliber player
Johnson is 28 years old and has been in the league for five years. He's played with three different teams already after being drafted fourth overall by the Timberwolves in 2010. He was supposed to be a lockdown defender and dead-eye shooter coming out of college, but he hasn't shown the ability to do either of those things at a high level. He's a career 35-percent shooter who doesn't pull the trigger all that often and his teams have done better on defense with him off the court in all five seasons he's been a pro.
Johnson is long and has a pretty shooting form, so he looks the part of a solid three-and-D wing. The problem is that he isn’t one in reality.
If the Clippers were as thin as they were last season, finding Johnson a spot in the rotation would make sense. They are not. They have two better options as starters in Pierce and Stephenson.
2. If Pierce can’t start, Stephenson should
Stephenson's horrible stint with the Hornets has severely damaged his reputation, and for good reason. He was an abject disaster in Charlotte. Yet this is a guy a year removed from a breakout season for a 56-win Pacers team. The potential for him to return to that level is the reason the Clippers traded for him despite his baggage.
Unlike with Johnson, there is evidence of Stephenson being a solid defender that can handle bigger players.
It’s true that Stephenson is not a great shooter. He only shot 35 percent from beyond the arc in 2013-14, and that was his best season. Opponents won’t respect him when he spots up. Then again, smart teams also didn’t respect Barnes, and the Clippers were still a potent offense with him as small forward.
If Doc wants to experiment early in the season, going with Stephenson has a lot more upside than going with Johnson. It would put the mercurial former Pacer in a place in which he will only be asked to take open shots and focus on defense.
3. Pierce can start and have his minutes monitored
Still, the best option remains starting Pierce. Monitoring his minutes is a must, but Wizards coach Randy Wittman managed to do just that last season. Pierce started, but he only played 26 minutes a game and was fresh enough to make a difference during the playoffs. He upped his averages and was an assassin throughout despite his advancing age.
There's a case to be made that starting Johnson helps with lineup balance. Pierce can help Jamal Crawford provide an offensive spark with bench units, while the starters don't need assistance in that area. Pierce can also function as a backup power forward in these lineups, which may suit his game better at this stage of his career.
Yet having Pierce create shots would require him to exert exactly the type of energy the team wants him to save for the postseason. Why not have him spotting up beyond the arc while Chris Paul and Blake Griffin work their magic? It worked for Washington, where over a third of his shots during the regular season were catch-and-shoot three-pointers.
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Rivers hasn’t made his final decision yet. Even if he goes with Johnson, the talent in the starting lineup is enough to have a successful year. On the list of all the things that can derail the Clippers’ season, starting Johnson ranks near the bottom.
Yet the upside of the move is so low that it makes very little sense to even try it. It would be better for Rivers to go with Stephenson as a starter in the hope that he can recapture the magic of that 2013-14 season or just pick the best man for the job in Pierce.
Sometimes great coaches outsmart themselves. Rivers is doing just that if he starts Johnson.
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