Welcome to the 2016 NBA trade deadline. A few trades have already gone down, and if history is our guide minor deals will continue to trickle in leading up to a whizzbang final 15 minutes around the official 3 p.m. ET deadline.
Here are predictions on what will happen at the 2016 NBA trade deadline
We’ve peered into our crystal basketballs and seen deep into the future. Well, a few hours into the future.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Because we are masochists, we decided to make some predictions. This focuses primarily on the major topics, and it’s pretty wishy-washy. So, take it for what you will: completely unsourced guesses about the machinations of the cloaked league.
Here we go!
THE DWIGHT HOWARD WEEPSTAKES*
* Note to editors and members of the International Internet Typo Police: that’s not a typo.**
** It’s a joke.
The Rockets seem dedicated to losing Dwight Howard ASAP. Why? Apparently he and James Harden don't really get along, plus Houston has Clint Capela in the wings, a hopeless task ahead of them this spring and Howard can become a free agent in July and bolt anyway. The thinking is that the Rockets might as well flip him for some assets now.
Here’s the thing: Howard is being grossly undervalued because so few people like Dwight as a human and because of ongoing injury concerns. He’s still one of the top defensive centers in the NBA when he’s out there playing, and he’s good for 15 points most nights and 20 now and then, even in his current state. He was one of the most important players in the entire league for the first two rounds of the playoffs last season, and he just turned 30. Is he really that unlikable?
Yes. The answer is apparently, yes.
The prediction: Howard gets traded to the Southeast Division. Not like the division collectively. One of the teams in the division. Probably not Orlando. Just a hunch.
Atlanta has a good, strong culture and is Dwight's hometown. Howard would be a real good fit next to the rangy Paul Millsap, and while he's not better than Al Horford right now he just might be a better fit overall. If Boston can convince the Hawks to trade Horford, the C's could send an asset to Atlanta but the bulk of their Horford package to Houston. Rockets GM Daryl Morey could use those assets to gain another co-star for Harden down the line or prep for a quick rebuild.
Miami is mentioned as a potential Howard landing spot, and Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside could be the basis of that package, if Morey wants to go that way. Charlotte has been mentioned as a Dwight possibility (they have plenty of spare prospects plus Al Jefferson's contract) and the Wizards seem like a low-key sleeper option given the frontcourt issues.
But the prediction here is that Howard does get traded, likely for something rather underwhelming.
FIREWORKS IN BOSTON
Danny Ainge famously has a basement full of draft picks and young players. I hope he is watering the poor guys.
The prediction: Ainge finally makes his move and spins picks and prospects for an All-Star. Boston seems quite unlikely to deal the unprotected 2016 Nets picks that at this point is highly, highly likely to land in the top six. But the C's have another Brooklyn pick plus a swap plus some other less valuable picks plus James Young, Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk and more. I think Horford is the most likely player here based on a hunch, but the allure of Kevin Love is strong and Cleveland appears poised to do something. So, Horford or Love to Boston. Maybe.
A LAND WITHOUT LOVE
Cleveland’s got something up its sleeve, man.
The prediction: I think they move Love if they can land a stylistic replacement (Ryan Anderson) and a better wing than Iman Shumpert (plus picks or prospects to add up to Love's still high value). Ben McLemore is not that wing, by the way. Not right now. I don't think Kyle Korver is better than Shump either, but he might offer a glimmer of what people think Cleveland needs (more shooting) at the cost of something they actually need (perimeter defense).
Timofey Mozgov is the other domino. He's a free agent in July and the Cavaliers can really not afford to keep him unless the Love spot gets cheaper. The Cavs paid two firsts for Mozgov, but can they even get one back now? I don't know. I think that if a major Love deal does not happen, Cleveland spins Mozgov for a rotational defensive wing.
The outlandish prediction: Mozgov for Lance Stephenson.
#KANGZ
I find these days that the Sacramento Kings are best enjoyed as a sitcom, not a basketball team. George Karl wants veterans, the front office is hesitant to trade one of the three young guys with potential on the roster and every other GM in the NBA is circling like sharks. I wonder why.
The prediction: I don't think the Pau Gasol trade makes any sense whatsoever, so that's highly likely to happen. I have a sneaking suspicion that Ben McLemore is gone regardless, that the Kings will bring in a low-scoring wing on the wrong side of 30 (Arron Afflalo?) and that Sacramento will be bad enough the rest of the way to keep its pick -- but not so bad the Sixers' pick swap comes into effect.
SLEEPY TIME
A few predictions for sleeper teams ...
PORTLAND: The Blazers use their cap space ($20 million worth) to land a young big man, not picks.
DENVER: The Nuggets are unable to find a trade for J.J. Hickson and finally heed my advice and leave him at an airport of his choice.
UTAH: It would appear they are serious about trading for Ty Lawson. So, I predict that Quin Snyder finally actually shoots fire out of his eyes.
MIAMI: Unless Miami does get involved in the Weepstakes, the Heat stand pat until June, when all hell breaks loose.
ORLANDO: It appears they are trading Channing Frye somewhere, and I still think Evan Fournier finds a new home.
DETROIT: Destined to trade for Ramon Sessions.
WASHINGTON: Barring the Weepstakes, the Wizards tinker around the edges and declare victory.
GOLDEN STATE: The expansive Warriors front office gathers in the war room in downtown Oakland, refreshes Twitter ravenously and laughs its collective ass off at the challengers flailing to catch up.
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