It's not just the recent 11-game win-streak that has the now 33-16 Toronto Raptors seeming like a legitimate threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. Impressive runs are common in the NBA, and while winning 11 consecutive games is certainly impressive, it's not necessarily a major predictor of future success.
The Raptors looked great in January, again. Will they still look great in April and May?
Toronto is flying at midseason for the third year in a row, but the previous two years ended in playoff disappointment. Will the Raptors break through this time?
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But amid that run, the Raptors turned into one of a handful of teams that are good on both ends of the floor. The Raptors' offense is ranked sixth in the NBA at 105.4 points per 100 possessions. Their defense: eighth at 100.7 points surrendered per 100 possessions. The only other teams that rank in the top 10 in both categories are four of the five favorites for the title: Golden State, San Antonio, Cleveland and the Clippers.
Whether Toronto can actually take out Cleveland is a conversation for a different day. The better question: how have the Raptors managed to launch themselves into the NBA’s top tier?
A familiar story on offense
Modern offenses are supposed to be built around ball movement, spacing and three-point shots. At least that’s how most of the league’s top units function.
The Raptors, though, play more like a team out of the 90s. They play slow. They take a lot of mid-range jumpers. They rank in the middle of the pack in three-pointers attempted despite shooting 36 percent as a team from deep. They don’t swing the ball around the court like other great teams. They feast on isolations and rank towards the bottom of the league in every assist category. Only three teams run isolations more frequently, according to NBA.com’s tracking data.
But when you have a pair of All-Stars in the backcourt, it makes sense to tailor the offense around them. Raptors head coach Dwane Casey has done exactly that.
In DeMar DeRozan, Casey has a relentless rim-attacking machine capable of pushing his way into the teeth of even the league's most stout defenses. No one in the league drives to the basket more than him, per NBA.com. At 6'7 DeRozan is bigger and longer than most of the players defending him. He knows how to use his body to get into the paint and has an array of crafty finishes he can whip out once he's there.
He’s also adept at drawing contact and getting to the foul line. He averages more than eight free-throws per game, the third-highest number in the league. That makes up for his crooked three-point shooting -- he’s currently at 31 percent, which is nevertheless a career high.
DeRozan's backcourt mate (and grammar tutor) Kyle Lowry has been the Eastern Conference's top point guard this season. Now in his tenth season in the NBA, Lowry has emerged as a darkhorse for the non-Stephen Curry MVP honor. He can can get to the rim, hit from deep, set up his teammates and even help out on the glass, where he's averaging five rebounds a game.
Like DeRozan, Lowry is persistent in his desire to get into the paint. He also ranks among the league leaders in foul shots attempted and drives per game. Yet his skillset also meshes perfectly with DeRozan's, which makes the duo even more potent. Lowry can play off the ball and knock down jumpers off DeRozan drives; 49 percent of Lowry's made shots this season have come off DeRozan passes, per NBA.com).
Of course, Lowry can do plenty of the heavy lifting as well.
Relying on isolations might not be ideal, but the results are there.
The Raptors don't shoot a ton of threes, but they've figured other ways to tilt the math in their favor. No team drives more, no team gets to the foul line more frequently and only a handful of teams take more shots in the paint, per NBA.com data.
DeRozan and Lowry do settle for pull-up jumpers too frequently, and there would be more space for them to get to the hoop if DeMarre Carroll (a career 37 percent three-point shooter) wasn't still recovering from knee surgery. But Terrence Ross, who's shooting 38 percent from deep and is second on the team in catch-and-shoot points, has filled Carroll's offensive role well. Having a power forward on the roster with range like Patrick Patterson coming off the bench creates more space, too.
An offense built around the steady attacking of DeRozan and Lowry might not create the most beautiful product, but it’s certainly an effective one.
A different story on defense
Then again, a dangerous offense is nothing new for Toronto. Toronto was actually third in the league in points per possession last season, but still got swept by the Washington Wizards in the first round of the playoffs. The Raptors' real problem was on defense. They surrounded 104.8 points per 100 possessions, the eighth-worst mark in the league and the worst among playoff teams.
Toronto addressed that issue head on in the offseason. First, it hired Andy Greer, a Tom Thibodeau disciple. Greer brought along a new, more conservative defensive scheme and scrapped anything that involved lead-footed big men like Jonas Valanciunas chasing guards across the perimeter. Then, general manager Masai Ujiri signed the defensive-minded Carroll, Cory Joseph, Luis Scola and Bismack Biyombo to give Casey and Greer some more athleticism and strength off the bench.
The results speak for themselves. The Raptors are allowing nearly four fewer points per 100 possessions and are denying opponents the efficient spots on the court. They excel at keeping opponents away from the rim and don’t surrender a lot of three-pointers.
The unit is far from perfect. Valanciunas, who sees the bulk of the minutes at center, remains one of the league's worst rim protectors. Teams are also shooting 37 percent from deep against Toronto, which is the result of focusing so strongly on cutting off drivers and packing the paint.
But the effort has improved and the scheme is better suited for the personnel. The question is whether the Raptors can defend at this level when the games begin to matter more.
Will it be the same old story in April?
If some of this sounds familiar, it should. Last season, Toronto jumped out to a 22-7 record and at one point was even in first place in the East, only to eventually fall apart on defense and bow out meekly to the Wizards in the playoffs’ first round. Two years ago, Toronto lost a Game 7 on its home floor to the Brooklyn Nets.
The Wizards shut down the Raptors’ one-on-one style last season, which should worry Toronto fans. There’s a reason so many teams have moved away from isolations. Generally, they don’t work come playoff time when facing ramped-up defenses paying attention to every detail in the scouting reports. Lowry and DeRozan are two of the best shot-creators in the league, but it’s hard to win multiple playoff games without getting the other three players involved. Toronto’s foul-drawing skill also depends on referees sending them to the line, and officials often swallow their whistles in the playoffs.
That said, the East is much more wide open this year. With two stars, a strong defense and a potent, if flawed, offense, the Raptors have a much stronger infrastructure than any other East team except Cleveland. They might not play a beautiful style like the Warriors or Spurs, but with the East as unsettled as it is, they still have an excellent shot of being one of the final four teams standing.
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