The I-35 rivalry between the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder hasn't taken off quite like the one between Dallas and San Antonio. The Mavericks beat the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals en route to a 2011 NBA Championship, but Oklahoma City was still young and on the upswing, while Dallas quickly fell off after breaking up its title team. Although the teams played again in 2012, it was merely a four-game first-round sweep.
Thunder vs. Mavericks, NBA playoffs 2016: Oklahoma City wants to be a contender, but first they must beat Dallas
The Thunder have a clear talent advantage over the Mavericks in a first-round series, but Rick Carlisle and Dirk Nowitzki will always make things tough.
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Perhaps this series can generate more competitiveness or fire between the two sides. Three weeks ago, the Mavericks looked in serious danger of falling out of the postseason completely. Instead of folding, they rattled off seven wins in eight games, including an enormous victory against the Utah Jazz on Monday that clinched a playoff berth. It's nothing like what the Thunder faced, knowing for weeks with near certainty they'd sit in the third seed, but it has thrown the two teams together regardless.
Oklahoma City is convinced it can challenge the Golden State Warriors in a seven-game series, and since the 2012 Finals, it still hasn't lost a playoff series when fully healthy. But the Thunder are in the No. 3 seed for a reason, with a troubling knack for blowing games late in the fourth quarter and a weird jumble of role players outside of their three stars.
Still, the talent of their stars alone should be enough for the Thunder to bury Dallas. After all, this is a team that expected to have DeAndre Jordan manning the middle all season before he decided not to honor his verbal agreement, and the Mavericks have been scrambling ever since. Through Rick Carlisle's wizardry and the continued brilliance of Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas managed to cobble together a half-decent unit, only to see Chandler Parsons go down once again with season-ending knee surgery.
Dallas is scrappy and feisty, and over the past two weeks, its defense has been one of the best in the NBA by tricking opponents into playing their pace. But it just doesn’t have Oklahoma City’s talent, and there’s no amount of sorcery and dark magic that can bridge that game.
The matchup
- Thunder (55-27, expected record 59-23) vs. Mavericks (42-40, expected record 40-42)
- Thunder offensive efficiency: 113.1 (2nd) | Mavericks offensive efficiency: 106.7 (22nd)
- Thunder defensive efficiency: 105.6 (13th) | Mavericks defensive efficiency: 107.0 (17th)
- Season series: Thunder 4-0
Key matchup: Wesley Matthews vs. Kevin Durant
There are a few striking similarities between the two players who will face off at small forward this series. Both players underwent major surgeries for the first time last year, and both surgeries caused their seasons to end prematurely, ending the playoff chances of their teams. But while Durant returned to Oklahoma City this year and regained his incredible MVP form, Matthews’ road back was more difficult.
Portland went for a total rebuild, so Matthews ended up in Dallas, where he led the team in minutes. But it often wasn’t pretty, with Matthews struggling with his shot for vast stretches of the year, interrupted by a few weeks of hot shooting here and there. Since Parsons went out, Matthews has been better, playing his usual superb defense while knocking down threes at a relatively consistent rate.
Durant can’t be stopped, and on certain nights, he can barely be slowed down. But Matthews will try his best, despite the size difference, as he moves up to small forward in most Carlisle lineups. It’s not the cleanest matchup, and it won’t be Matthews’ responsibility alone (rookie Justin Anderson will get some chances), but after debilitating injuries last year, it’ll be a joy to see these two back in the playoffs battling at such high levels.
X factor: Rick Carlisle’s masterminding
The talent will likely catch up to them in the end, but make no mistake: Carlisle has tricks. At various times throughout the year, the Mavericks have alternated between playing traditionally, slowing the pace way down and speeding it up with super small ball. Against a rookie coach in Billy Donovan, Carlisle has the clear advantage. This is how the Mavericks can steal a game or two.
In a 2014 first-round series against the San Antonio Spurs, the Carlisle-led Mavericks pushed all the way to a Game 7 before falling. San Antonio proceeded to win the title that year, leaving people shaking their heads at how Dallas had even come close to pulling off the enormous upset. Most of the credit went to Carlisle, who changed up his defensive schemes and kept San Antonio off balance for six games.
For this series, a lot of it may come back to the pace, which Carlisle, plus his group of established veterans and multiple point guard lineups, controls expertly. The Thunder can play big and small with players better than anyone Dallas can put on the floor, but as long as the Mavericks manage the tempo of the game, they’ll always have some semblance of control over what’s happening on the floor.
Predictions
Ziller | Flannery | Prada | Cato | Welcome to Loud City | Mavs Moneyball |
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Schedule (all times Eastern)
Game 1: Sat., April 16, Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 2: Mon., April 18, Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 3: Thurs., April 21, American Airlines Center, Dallas, 7 p.m. (TNT)
Game 4: Sat., April 23, American Airlines Center, Dallas, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 5 (if necessary): Mon., April 25, Chesapeake Arena, TBD.
Game 6 (if necessary): Thurs., April 28, American Airlines Center, Dallas. TBD.
Game 7 (if necessary): Sat., April 30, Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City. TBD.
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