Take one look at a Memphis Grizzlies' box score these days and it's hard not to feel bummed out. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley aren't there, leaving players like Jordan Farmar, Lance Stephenson and Xavier Munford to drag the limping Grizzlies to the finish line of this roller coaster season that has them clinging to a playoff spot for dear life.
Injuries have made the Grizzlies’ season depressing
All the injuries are finally catching up to the Grizzlies, so they’re in danger of missing the playoffs. Then again, it’s not like a playoff berth offers much salvation, either.
Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
There were already questions about the ceiling of this veteran team after a mediocre start to the year that featured a slew of blowout losses to elite teams, but a big January had Memphis trending in the right direction. Even after Gasol suffered a broken foot in early February that knocked him out for the rest of the season, the Grizzlies continued to scrounge up shorthanded victories, including a stunner in Cleveland against a healthy Cavaliers squad.
That gritty victory moved Memphis to 38-25 on March 7, but it's been all downhill since then as the injury situation has simply become too much to overcome. Conley went down with Achilles pain, backup Mario Chalmers ruptured his Achilles and mainstays like Zach Randolph, Matt Barnes and others have shuffled in and out of the lineup with various maladies. To illustrate just how bad it's become, point guard Bryce Cotton just became the 28th player to suit up for the Grizzlies this season, a new NBA record.
Memphis was dealt another blow with the news that Conley likely won’t return at any point this season, meaning he could’ve played his last game in a Grizzlies uniform. The point guard will be one of the most coveted free agents on the market this summer, and there’s a slight chance he could look to go elsewhere given Gasol’s injury and the uncertainty of this core moving forward.
After six straight losses and 10 in 12 games, the Grizzlies are tenuously holding on to the No. 5 seed with a record of 41-36, which is a half-game better than the sixth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers. The Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz are both two games back, while the ninth-seeded Houston Rockets are three games back. On the surface, Memphis seems to be pretty safe, but look closer and that's not the case.
First, here’s the Grizzlies’ closing schedule:
- vs. Chicago Bulls
- at Dallas Mavericks
- vs. Golden State Warriors
- at Los Angeles Clippers
- at Golden State Warriors
Memphis’ best opportunity at a victory may be Tuesday night against the Bulls, but Chicago has won three straight road games and is also battling for a playoff spot. Going to Dallas will be no picnic given the two teams are fighting over positioning, and then the remaining three games are against elite teams. Maybe the Warriors and Clippers rest some players, but they’ll still be heavily favored. There’s a decent chance the Grizzlies lose out and finish 41-41.
If that’s how things play out, Memphis wouldn’t own the tiebreaker against any of the four teams behind them in the race. Here’s how those tiebreakers would look:
- Grizzlies and Blazers tie series 2-2, but Portland finishes with better conference record
- Jazz win series 2-1
- Mavericks win series 3-1
- Grizzlies and Rockets tie series 2-2, but Houston finishes with better division record
In this scenario, the Grizzlies would have to finish with a better record than all these teams to get in. Given the schedules, that’s no given. The Blazers finish with three home games out of four and would need just one win. The Mavericks have a tough closing slate, but they’d need only one other win out of four games if they beat Memphis in Dallas. The Jazz are rolling and would need two wins out of five. Finally, the Rockets play four of the worst teams in the league after playing in Dallas on Wednesday.
Barring one of the other teams falling apart, the Grizzlies’ best bet to ensure a spot is by beating the Mavericks in Dallas on Friday. A victory would give Memphis the tiebreaker over Dallas by virtue of owning a better division record (the season series would be tied at 2-2), meaning the Mavericks couldn’t afford another loss besides that one.
But even if the Grizzlies are able to sneak into the playoffs with this skeleton crew, they're likely going to run into one of the historic buzzsaws at the top of the conference. Memphis has given the Warriors and Spurs some trouble in the postseason in the past, but it wouldn't be a fair fight this time around.
On the flip side, there's little incentive to miss the playoffs for Memphis. The Grizzlies have to send their 2016 first-round pick to the Denver Nuggets if that selection is in the 6-14 range, and that's where it'll wind up if Memphis misses the playoffs and doesn't get some serious lottery luck.
No matter how you slice it, this season isn’t on track to have a happy ending. A playoff berth means the Grizzlies get to keep their pick, but it also likely results in a first-round shellacking. Missing the playoffs means no pick barring a longshot jump into the top three.
Dave Joerger will have his players fighting until the very end, but all these unfortunate circumstances have made this a depressing season in Memphis. Worse, the prospect of Conley's free agency lingers over the whole situation. At this point, Grizzlies fans likely just want this year to end.
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