The Heat's season certainly didn't end as planned, but nothing really went as planned for Miami this year. That the Heat were able to get to within one game of the Eastern Conference with Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside watching from the sidelines is a testament to Dwyane Wade's greatness and management's skill at finding hidden gems.
The Heat’s season is over. Now, the real challenge begins
Pat Riley has a series of difficult questions to answer if he wants to improve the Heat, but if anyone can solve them, it’s him.
But while the Heat's late-season run was impressive, any chance they had of possibly upsetting LeBron James' Cavaliers went out the door the moment Bosh's blood clots returned. With with just four players under contract for next year (Goran Dragic, Josh McRoberts, Justise Winslow and Bosh), Miami faces a plethora of difficult decisions that will dramatically shape its future.
There might not be an executive better at rebuilding on the fly than Pat Riley, but the best way for him to do so is unclear. The Heat have many major questions to address, and none has an easy answer.
1. What is Chris Bosh’s future?
Before the Heat move forward or make any other decisions, they must come up with a plan for their star big man. Bosh missed the final 38 games of the 2014-15 season after a blood clot was discovered in his lungs, then sat for the final 29 games this season due to a less severe clot scare. Bosh reportedly wants to get back onto the court and has been seeking medical clearance. The Heat, however, are being far more cautious.
It’s impossible to comment on the medical aspect of this question. Obviously, the Heat would prefer to move forward with Bosh. If team doctors clear him, they’d welcome him back with open arms. But the situation is difficult to manage, particularly if Bosh’s personal doctors and those employed by the Heat continue to offer differing opinions. What does Miami do then?
Bosh is owed $75 million over the next three years. If he remains on the sidelines until Feb. 9, 2017 -- the one-year anniversary of his last appearance on an NBA court -- an independent league doctor must decide if he’s eligible to play again. If that doctor prohibits Bosh from returning, his contract would cease to count against the Heat’s salary cap, according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst. Bosh would still receive every dollar he’s owed, but Miami would be free to use that cap room. That one-year clock would restart if Bosh gave a comeback another shot.
There are no easy answers for either side. The Heat’s best (and possibly only) option is to keep Bosh on the roster and off the floor until they and everyone’s doctors are sure he can return for good. But the decision might not be that simple, particularly if Bosh suffers another scare in-season.
During his radio show on Monday, ESPN’s Dan Le Batard said a Heat source told him that “Bosh should be able to play next season.” But we shall see.
2. Is Hassan Whiteside a max player for this team?
Statistically, the answer to this question is certainly yes. Whiteside is a 26-year-old seven-footer who averaged 14.2 points, 11.8 rebounds and a league-leading 3.7 blocks this season. He’s a dynamic rim protector and one of the league’s most effective pick-and-roll partners. Only six big men averaged more points per possession while diving to the hoop following a screen, according to NBA.com’s data from Synergy Sports. Miami badly missed him once he suffered a knee injury in Game 3 against Toronto.
But there’s a reason Whiteside, an incredibly athletic seven-footer, bounced around the league and made stops in Lebanon and China before settling in with Miami last year. You don’t have to search for long to find stories of Whiteside loafing around or getting under the skin of bosses or teammates. That was all with him earning less than $1 million per year. What happens when he gets his money? Will the motivation still be there? There’s no way to know.
That said, Whiteside has become even more important to the Heat given Bosh’s health situation. Riley could try to get Whiteside to take a pay cut, but that doesn’t seem like the kind of thing Whiteside wants. And why should he? He’s certain to receive multiple maximum-contract offers -- approximately four years and $92 million -- from teams around the league and should take advantage of them. The Heat also cannot exceed the cap or offer a fifth year to retain Whiteside; because he has only been with the team for two years, they do not have his full Bird Rights.
The dilemma is that inking Whiteside to a maximum deal would leave the Heat with just about $20 million in cap room, which isn't enough to sign another player to a maximum contract. Bosh is on the books for $23.7 million, Dragic is at $15.9M, McRoberts is at $5.8M and Winslow is at $2.6M. Josh Richardson ($900k) and Tyler Johnson ($1.9M for now, but is a restricted free agent) are likely to be brought back. That totals about $51M in salary, which probably isn't enough to sign Whiteside and another big-time free agent -- such as, say, Kevin Durant -- to $23 million maximum deals and remain under the expected $93 million cap.
None of that touches on the fact that the greatest player in franchise history is set to become a free agent, too.
3. Can the Heat get Dwyane Wade to take another pay cut?
Remember last year, when Wade took some shots at the Heat and balked at the notion of again signing for less than his market value so that the Heat could cash in? Miami temporarily soothed him with a one-year, $20 million deal, but that only kicked the can down the road to this year. Wade will probably be offered the same type of deal again this offseason, only he’s a year older and Miami now has other players it wants to target.
It’s hard to imagine Wade playing in any city other than Miami and it’s hard to see Miami letting him shake loose. But if he insists on a long-term, maximum-level contract, that puts Miami in a bind with Whiteside and other top targets. Miami will need Wade’s cooperation to make their other decisions easier.
4. Is Kevin Durant really an option? Can Miami act like he is?
On the surface, the answer to these questions seem to be a resounding no. Durant is on a team currently playing in the Western Conference Finals, while Miami has already been sent home. But we’ve learned in the past to never count out Riley and the Heat. Also, never underestimate the lure of competing in the weaker Eastern Conference.
The Heat can certainly get in the room to pitch Durant, which at least gives them a chance. As is the case with Whiteside and Wade, they’d need Durant to take a pay cut if he wants to come to a team with actual talent. Could they convince Wade to take something like a three-year, $30 million deal and then get Whiteside and Durant to both sign contracts in the $16 million-a-year-range? That seems highly unlikely, though a team of Dragic, Wade, Durant, Winslow, Whiteside and maybe Bosh could give the Cavaliers a fight. If that’s all KD is looking for, then Miami could be the best place for him.
But realistically, signing Durant means saying goodbye to Whiteside and possibly Wade as well. That is going to be a tough sell for everyone involved, making the dream Durant scenario unlikely.
5. What do the Heat do if/when Durant play doesn’t work?
The Heat could try to chase other top free agents like Nicolas Batum, a younger, better version of Luol Deng who could play alongside Winslow and Whiteside and replicate the Heat's small-ball look that allowed them to survive Bosh's absence this year. They could even pursue similar players like Harrison Barnes or Chandler Parsons to fill the Batum/Deng role. But it's nearly impossible to expect Wade and/or Whiteside to take massive pay cuts for anyone other than Durant.
That means if Miami doesn’t pull off the miracle KD signing, they’ll likely have to fall back on a strategy of re-signing Wade and Whiteside to big-time deals and relying on a return to health from Bosh to get them over the hump. The Heat will have to fill out the rest of their roster using cap exceptions and minimum deals, which isn’t exactly the best way to add depth. Perhaps they could convince Wade to shave a little off his salary so that they could bring back Joe Johnson, but that’s the best they’re going to do.
This is what makes the Heat’s upcoming offseason so intriguing. There are so many possibilities, so many directions to go. Come July, we could be looking at Miami as a star-laden group ready to challenge the Cavaliers, or a shallow roster built around the aging body of Dwyane Wade and the questionable future of Chris Bosh.
Right now, there’s no way to know which direction this thing will head. All we know is that the Heat will be fascinating to watch in July.
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