Maybe Kyle Lowry's right elbow really is in bad shape. He initially hurt it during the Raptors' January swing through Europe, then had it drained in late March, causing him to sit out four games down the stretch.
What in the world happened to Kyle Lowry?
If the elbow isn’t the problem, what exactly is going on with Kyle Lowry?
Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
The Raptors' All-Star point guard is playing now, but that lingering injury might justify his mystifying postseason swoon. It explains why Toronto's best player is connecting on just 31 percent from the field and 16 percent from deep in eight postseason contests. His game-by-game playoff shooting lines make his performance look even more ghastly: 3-for-13, 4-for-13, 8-for-21, 4-for-12, 3-for-11, 4-for-14, 5-for-14, and finally, 3-for-13 in Toronto's 102-96 Game 1 overtime loss to the Heat on Tuesday night.
Lowry was the Eastern Conference's top guard throughout the regular season, the best player on a 56-win team and a top-10 MVP candidate this season. But since the playoffs tipped off, Lowry has suddenly morphed into a tentative and often erratic player. The Raptors figured out a way to barely squeeze by the seventh-seeded Pacers in Round 1, but it's hard to envision them winning another postseason series (or even a game) if Lowry continues to perform like this.
Lowry, of course, is aware of his own issues. He was reportedly sullen in the locker following Tuesday night’s loss, and even retreated to the Raptors’ practice gym after the game.
Kyle Lowry, right now pic.twitter.com/zwRrKcUAb5
— Bruce Arthur (@bruce_arthur) May 4, 2016
“There are countless nights that I’ve done that back in North Philly,” Lowry said about his post-game shooting routine.
Lowry also refused to blame his struggles on his elbow, instead insisting that his problem was mental. Sources inside the Raptors won't lay everything at the feet of the injured elbow either, according to Toronto Star columnist Bruce Arthur. In a podcast posted on Monday, ESPN's Zach Lowe said that "the murmurs I'm hearing is that his elbow is fine."
It could be that Lowry and the Raptors made a collective decision to downplay the elbow injury publicly, but if Lowry’s elbow truly was injured, it’s hard to explain why jacking up even more jumpers after the game is the cure.
If the elbow isn’t the problem, what exactly is going on with Lowry?
Lowry is shooting a horrid 23 percent on jump shots during the playoffs, and the same exact percentage on catch-and-shoot opportunities, per NBA.com. Poor shot selection doesn’t appear to be the issue. Forty-five percent of Lowry’s shot attempts have been designated “open looks” by NBA.com. For the majority of the series against Indiana, Lowry at least hunted for those opportunities.
That all changed in Game 7 and carried over to Game 1 against Miami. Lowry can’t hit anything from the outside, yet those are the only shots he took. He attempted just three shots inside the paint on Tuesday -- one was off a backdoor cut and one came as the shot clock ran down. He’s no longer looking to attack the basket and is afraid to shoot when he does.
Even worse, he’s content to stand at the top of the key and watch his teammates go to work, even when the defender closing out to him would be vulnerable if he attacked.
Lowry is clearly overthinking because of all those misses. That overthinking is robbing Lowry of his trademark instincts and fluidity.
Lowry: "I passed up a ton of shots, actually. So with the poor shooting, I think that's what it did to me a little bit more tonight."
— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) May 4, 2016
Other areas of his game have been affected by his slump. Lowry took just one free throw over his past two games after averaging more than six per game during the regular season. He also blew an assignment on a critical three-pointer by Goran Dragic that put Miami up five with 40 seconds left. Even that miracle heave Lowry made to force overtime happened after he fumbled the inbounds pass and nearly stepped out of bounds.
This isn’t Lowry’s first postseason failure. Including this year, Lowry is shooting just 35 percent from the field and 26 on three-pointers in 31 career playoff games. This recent cold stretch no longer seems like a random blip.
All it takes is one shot, one game, one win to restore a player’s confidence. But unless that half-court shot is a trigger, it’s hard to imagine Lowry bouncing back anytime soon. Without him at his best, the Raptors simply don’t have a chance.
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