It's easy to say the Atlanta Hawks should blow everything up. For two straight years, they've seen strong seasons come to an end in overwhelming playoff sweeps to the Cavaliers. They're weak on the wings and have no one on the roster who can create easy points late in games.
The Hawks shouldn’t blow up their nice team just because it can’t beat LeBron James
It will be tempting for the Hawks to push the reset button after a second straight sweep at the hands of the Cavaliers. That would be a mistake.
If there ever were a time to click the restart button, this offseason certainly seems to be it. Al Horford is a free agent. Paul Millsap has just one year left on his deal, plus a player option he's likely to decline. Jeff Teague has one year and $8 million remaining on his contract. Kyle Korver, while still dangerous, is also 35 and coming off an injury-plagued down season by his standards.
It’d be understandable if Atlanta’s decision makers elected to pull the plug on this current core. It’d also be the wrong call.
If you blow it up, what next?
The Hawks aren't likely to get much better next season and are more than just one piece away from giving the Cavaliers an actual fight. At the same time, clamoring for a tear down doesn't offer any solutions either. Sure, Atlanta could get rid of everyone, but then what? Are the Hawks suddenly going to morph into a free-agent destination that could woo free agents like Kevin Durant and DeMar DeRozan? Are they going to nab a future star with the No. 21 pick in this year's draft?
The answer to both those questions is obviously no, which means Atlanta would have to endure a Sam Hinkie-like rebuilding season (or two, or three) in order to become competitive and relevant again.
If there's a better path out there, sure, go for it. The Heat are a perfect example of a franchise that's benefited from this championship or bust mentality. But not everyone has Pat Riley in the front office or South Beach as a recruiting pitch. Look at the Grizzlies, a franchise that's never quite gotten over the hump and yet has still been able to build a strong fanbase -- meaning one willing to open its wallet -- by stringing together a number of winning years. That's meaningful, particularly in difficult markets like Memphis and Atlanta where fans won't unconditionally support a losing team.
If there's anything we've learned this postseason, it's that luck can play a major role. The Chris Paul and Blake Griffin injuries cleared a path for the Blazers to get to the second round, and Stephen Curry's sprained knee just might open the door for a Conference Finals berth if they can turn that series around. Some questionable whistles down the stretch of a Game 7 battle against the Raptors sent the Pacers home in the first round. Now, an an injury to Hassan Whiteside might help propel the Raptors past the Heat. (This is true of Miami as well because of Jonas Valanciunas' ankle injury).
All it takes is a few bounces or breaks (sometimes literally) to change everything. Would the Hawks be better off staying the course, touching up the edges and hoping for some luck, or playing the multi-year rebuild game?
The Hawks must re-sign Al Hoford
The Hawks have been one of the league’s best teams over the past two years. They won 60 games last season and 48 this year, when they also finished with the league’s second-best defensive rating. That unit was built around the versatility and brilliance of both Millsap and Horford, which is why re-signing Horford is a must. The choice is ultimately up to Horford, but Atlanta can offer a stable foundation and a fifth year on a maximum contract.
They should prepare that deal if that’s what it takes to keep their big man. Horford’s athleticism allows the Hawks to do all sorts of interesting things on defense. It helps the Hawks force a ton of turnovers, which helps make up for the stale offense and rebounding struggles. That offense would be even more hapless if not for Horford’s well-rounded game and deadly mid-range jumper.
After that, improving the roster becomes a little tricky. The Hawks will enter the offseason with about $52 million in cap room. Add in cap holds for Horford (who Atlanta who could then go over the cap in order to re-sign after all other business is concluded) and free agent Kent Bazemore ($18 million and $2.7 million respectively, according to Basketball Insiders), and that leaves just about $21 million in cap space. That number's not as large as it sounds. The salary of their future first-round pick (should they keep it) will cut into that even further and slice the max offer the Hawks can offer a free agent to about $18 million a year. That's not going to be enough to sign a maximum-level free agent.
But they can still use free agency to improve
That cap situation leaves the Hawks with a few options. Re-signing Bazemore is one, though that may be difficult. Bazemore emerged as a capable two-way player this year, but because he’s coming off a two-year contract, Atlanta only holds his Early Bird rights. That means they can only go over the cap to re-sign him if he agrees to a new contract for twice the value of his previous one, which is less than $6 million a year.
That’s not going to be enough to keep Bazemore. He’s coming off a strong season in which he connected on 36 percent of his deep balls and did a solid job defending opposing wings, so he’ll command an eight-figure salary on the open market. It’s highly unlikely he settles for a much smaller deal, so the Hawks will have to decide between bringing him back using most of that remaining cap room or looking elsewhere.
If they do re-sign Bazemore, it might be smart to survey the market again and see if another team would be willing to part with a more capable two-way wing player in exchange for Jeff Teague. The Hawks have reportedly been open to trading Teague in the past and handing the reins over to the younger Dennis Schroder. Schroder is erratic, but Teague's inconsistent shooting has short-circuited the offense the past two postseasons. This could be the perfect time to make this move.
If the Hawks lose Bazemore, there are a number of free agents available that would fit perfectly into Mike Budenholzer's scheme without costing a maximum contract. Charlotte's Nicolas Batum would be ideal, but it's hard to see the Hawks nabbing him with just over $15 million left in cap room. The same goes for Golden State's Harrison Barnes.
But Boris Diaw, who played in Atlanta before and knows Budenholzer from the time they spent together in San Antonio, would thrive in the Hawks' ball-movement heavy offense and would give them another defender to throw at LeBron James.
Luol Deng, who Atlanta almost signed in 2014 before Danny Ferry read those racist remarks from a scouting report, would also be a good match. The Hawks scored just 103 points per 100 possessions this season, a mark that placed them in the bottom half of the league. Deng and/or Diaw could boost that number up a few marks.
A starting lineup featuring Schroder, Korver, Deng or Bazemore, Millsap and Horford would be intriguing and dangerous, while a bench featuring Tiago Splitter, Mike Scott, Thabo Sefolosha, Tim Hardaway Jr. and whoever Atlanta receives in return for Teague could get the job done, too.
That might not be a championship group, but it’s close enough that it’s worth giving them at least one more shot. What are the chances tearing it down and starting over ever yields something better?
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