NBA All-Star Game predictions: How will the media and players vote?

The NBA reformed All-Star voting this season. In past years, fans decided unilaterally who started in the NBA All-Star Game. Now, the fan vote is only part of the equation. The fan vote counts for half of the decision, with parallel votes by a media panel (including our own Paul Flannery) and players themselves each accounting for 25 percent of the final result.

This has introduced immense intrigue into the proceedings. We have a good idea where the fan vote is headed thanks to the NBA’s two releases of tallies. The media vote is fairly predictable — we know how the media tends to vote for awards based on past results — but the player vote is completely unpredictable.

So, with a wonky eye and a nod to the ridiculousness of this exercise, let’s predict who will be named starters on Thursday night (7 p.m. ET on TNT, somewhat earlier on Adrian Wojnarowski’s Twitter feed).

East: Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry, LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler.

West: James Harden, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis.

Kyrie Irving will win the fan vote easily. Dwyane Wade had a decent lead over DeMar DeRozan for No. 2 last week, and there’s no reason that shouldn’t hold. Isaiah Thomas was solid in No. 4 ahead of No. 5 Kyle Lowry, No. 6 Derrick Rose (yikes), and No. 7 John Wall. I would hope that No. 9 Kemba Walker would jump ahead of Jeremy Lin, but we can’t have nice things.

I have a hunch that Flannery’s ballot is likely to be similar to the overall media vote rank with Lowry No. 1 and Thomas No. 2. But I’m flummoxed as to what happens after that. The media voting window was essentially a few days within the past week. Walker could be damaged by the Hornets’ swoon. Wall could benefit from the Wizards’ boomerang. It feels like few are talking about DeRozan now as we were in November.

My gut feeling is that the player vote will recognize Lowry’s leadership and toughness, as well as Thomas’ inspiring story. But how many media and player voters will credit Kyrie with postdated laurels for his FINALS-CLINCHING DAGGER and Christmas Day knife to the Warriors’ back?

I think Irving is going to end up No. 4 in the media vote and No. 3 in the player vote. Wall is my bet to be No. 3 from the media and No. 4 from players, with DeRozan and Walker to follow in some order. I don’t see how a large chunk of players or the media can put Wade over any of those six players.

If the player and media vote shakes out in this way and the fan vote holds, Irving is in thanks to the fan vote. My calculus ties up Isaiah and Lowry with the fan vote as the tiebreaker. I think there’s a greater chance that Thomas finishes in third in the media or fan vote than Lowry falls lower than No. 1 in either, though. So my prediction is ...

Kyrie Irving and Kyle Lowry.

The fan vote has LeBron James No. 1 and Giannis Antetokounmpo No. 2. LeBron will win the player and media vote as well. He’s in. Giannis should fare very well in both votes, too. He feels like a very safe bet for two reasons.

The first is that, based on Twitter over the past week, it looks like Joel Embiid is going to finish No. 3 in the fan vote. That would push the other contenders down a spot in the fan vote, amplifying the impact of Giannis finishing No. 2. The other reason is that only Jimmy Butler is the right combination of unequivocally good and popular among both media and players among the contenders.

So the race for the last spot is between Butler, Kevin Love, Carmelo Anthony and, shockingly, Embiid.

Embiid and Love will have the fan vote advantage (even over Melo), but Butler is likely to be the darling of the media and I have a hunch Melo is going to do especially well among players. It’s pretty wide open in my opinion, though. If I had to bet ...

LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jimmy Butler.

There are three obvious options for two spots. Stephen Curry and James Harden are going to finish 1-2 in some order in the fan vote, and Russell Westbrook will be No. 3. Harden will likely win the media and player vote, so he’s in. Westbrook’s best realistic case is that Curry finishes No. 2 in the fan vote, No. 3 in media and player votes. But even if that happens and Westbrook finishes No. 2 in media and player votes, he and Curry would tie in the final calculations, which sends the matter to the Fan Electoral College, and that gives the nod to Curry.

There are two unrealistic hopes for Westbrook: He beats out Harden for the player vote yet Harden beats out Curry for the fan vote (which would put Westbrook and Harden in) or another contender (like Chris Paul) edges Curry for No. 3 in the player or media vote. The odds are low, which means ...

James Harden and Stephen Curry.

Here’s an irrelevant and wild prediction: Zaza Pachulia is going to beat Kevin Durant in the fan vote. Momentum is on his side, even if the Warriors won’t help him out. But Durant will be no worse than second in the fan vote and third in player and media voting, so he’s in.

Zaza will not, of course, even be found in the single-digits in media and player voting, so his chance ends there. What amazing timing by the NBA to revamp the voting system this year.

Kawhi will functionally be second in the fan vote barring an Anthony Davis surge. Davis is substantially ahead of Draymond Green in the most recent fan vote release, while DeMarcus Cousins, Karl Towns, and dark horse Marc Gasol are even further back. Those guys will be too damaged by the fan vote to have a chance, even if they rank highly in the player and media votes.

Kawhi is very likely to finish high in the media and player vote, so we’re down to Davis and Green for the third spot. I’m extraordinarily eager to see how Green is judged by players. Davis’ stats and individual talent blow Green out of the water. But will rank-and-file players value that over Green’s workman stylings? Will they hold a grudge for his relentless groin kicks? Who knows?

Davis has a fan vote edge, which gives him a cushion over Green in the other categories. And so we end up with ...

Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, and Anthony Davis.